View Full Version : What's your comment on the debate between Bush and Kerry?
read here:
http://www.democrats.org/debates/update.html
wasteofo2
Sep30-04, 07:33 PM
The debates won't be broadcast until 9:00 Eastern time, another 25 or so minutes.
megashawn
Sep30-04, 07:46 PM
keep me updated, I'm stuck at work!!
Gokul43201
Sep30-04, 08:12 PM
Just started.
Upon Kat suggestion, I'm following the Iowa Electronic Markets
Just before start : (8:55pm)
Bush = $0.682
Kerry = $0.338
megashawn
Sep30-04, 08:14 PM
Whats with the dollar amounts?
And I've been waiting for the chance to tell you I love your quote.
Gokul43201
Sep30-04, 08:43 PM
http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html
Kerry had a great chance with "How did Bush mislead the people about the War ?", but he blew it by not going into any details, or dropping any serious explosives. Instead he went over the same old drill again.
graphic7
Sep30-04, 08:56 PM
So far, most of Bush's responses have not been very impressive. I don't know - it's just how he talks I suppose. Kerry, on the other hand, has been very presentable throughout the debate, so far.
Ivan Seeking
Sep30-04, 09:00 PM
Bush: Pure comedy I'd say. I knew I could count on him.
My favorite so far is that he will defeat terror because "he thinks about it every day". :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
bjon-07
Sep30-04, 09:02 PM
Bush is getting his a@# kicked
bjon-07
Sep30-04, 09:02 PM
This has to be one of the funnest things I have ever heard.
graphic7
Sep30-04, 09:09 PM
I've heard some many "uh's" and "er's" from Bush, it's hilliarious. Kerry has been very quick and responsive.
phatmonky
Sep30-04, 09:13 PM
from the website:
George Bush stubbornly refused to face reality.
George Bush failed to deliver a plan for Iraq.
George Bush refused to accept responsibility for his failures.
those are some seriously objective reasons right there
This debate doesn't seem like a debate to me. They aren't asking eachother questions. No point-counterpoint style debating.
Lots of valence statement (a suprising amount of them from both Kerry and Bush). I already heard Kerry and Bush agree with eachother several times.
Lets see where this ends up...
Ivan Seeking
Sep30-04, 09:14 PM
When it is said that Bush stays on message, apparently this means that he has five answers used for everything.
phatmonky
Sep30-04, 09:20 PM
Bush is getting his a@# kicked
He got his *** kicked in 2000. this election and debates are is his to lose. He just has to hang in there to still win.
Kerry has a lot of proving of himself to do.
Will be interesting to see how this is all perceived. A bad showing on the first debate will be a winner for Bush in the next 2.
Remember that you are 'misunderestimating' him.
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 09:23 PM
Oh, and Bush keeps telling us what hard work the presidency is. Maybe if he thinks it's such hard work, he should try some other profession. He keeps repeating the same crap over and over, even if it isn't relevant to the question.
I think Kerry is doing a pretty good job. He could have done a little better on a few questions, but he's getting his point across, speaking clearly, and not coming across cocky the way Bush is.
Just started.
Upon Kat suggestion, I'm following the Iowa Electronic Markets
Just before start : (8:55pm)
Bush = $0.682
Kerry = $0.338
Gokul, where did you get this amt.? Did you take Dems less then 52% and Reps greater then 52% or?
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.089 0.099 0.090 0.088 0.125 0.100
DEM04_L52 0.225 0.232 0.220 0.209 0.266 0.235
REP04_L52 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.192 0.228 0.203
REP04_G52 0.470 0.479 0.480 0.415 0.507 0.480
bjon-07
Sep30-04, 09:25 PM
I have not laughed this hard in a long time......mabye I should not be listening to this in the libary. People are starting to look at me funny.
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 09:27 PM
This debate doesn't seem like a debate to me. They aren't asking eachother questions. No point-counterpoint style debating.
Lots of valence statement (a suprising amount of them from both Kerry and Bush). I already heard Kerry and Bush agree with eachother several times.
Lets see where this ends up...
These debates aren't meant to be them asking each other questions, it's the job of the moderator to ask the questions and them each to take turns answering them or responding to the others comments (think of it more like lawyers in court each presenting their case and arguments, not asking each other questions).
I just wish Kerry would stop flicking his tongue in and out of his mouth. It's kinda icky.
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 09:28 PM
When it is said that Bush stays on message, apparently this means that he has five answers used for everything.
That's for the S...L...O... W Bush followers who need the same handful of things repeated over and over and over so they can keep up. :biggrin:
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 09:31 PM
I just wish Kerry would stop flicking his tongue in and out of his mouth. It's kinda icky.
I hadn't noticed that. Then again, I was listening, but not really doing a lot of watching...was trying to type notes to remember what each said, until I started typing "blah blah blah...same stuff" for Bush's remarks and decided I didn't really need to compare what they were saying afterward.
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 09:36 PM
In the end, I thought it was a really good debate. I actually feel like I learned something more about Kerry's position and got some good concrete answers out of him. Hard to get too many details out of 2 min answers, but some details started to form. Kerry kept stating that Bush's position was 4 words: more of the same, and Bush fell right into that pattern by repeating over and over ad nauseum more of the same! I know public speaking is not Bush's strong suit, but I did think he'd do a little better than he did tonight. He just came across cocky...some hmphs and other noises while Kerry was speaking that just seemed very childish...more like what I'd expect on People's Court than in a presidential debate.
Moonbear, I really didn't hear anything new. Kerry seemed to be repeating that he only had ONE message and struggling to avoid using the word "vietnam". Bush, seemed defensive at the begining but had a strong ending.
Gokul43201
Sep30-04, 09:38 PM
The debates are worth jack$#!t, in my opinion. I thought Al Gore did a far better job than Bush in 2000. However, Bush got a jump after the debates then. So I just throw up my hands, shake my head and walk away.
It's got nothing to do with what's said, because the average person is NOT aware enough of the issues, in order to determine what is a real answer, what is a dodge, and what is a simple wool-pulling job. Also, most people won't notice when the answer has little to do with the question.
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 09:43 PM
Moonbear, I really didn't hear anything new. Kerry seemed to be repeating that he only had ONE message and struggling to avoid using the word "vietnam". Bush, seemed defensive at the begining but had a strong ending.
I thought Bush seemed defensive throughout. Kerry saying he had one message is a good tactic...he needed to say that because Bush kept alluding to flip-flopping. Kerry was making the point that he hasn't wavered and explained that. Maybe some of the things Kerry outlined were covered in other speeches he's given, but I haven't heard them myself before, so it was good for me to hear them this way. Of course pretty much every question was about Iraq, so there really wasn't much chance to talk about anything else. The choice of questions really forced them both to be somewhat repetitive because the questions were repetitive. I really hope the next two debates planned address some other issues. Iraq is a big deal and a big mess that someone needs to deal with, but there are other issues too that we need to hear about.
Gokul43201
Sep30-04, 09:46 PM
Gokul, where did you get this amt.? Did you take Dems less then 52% and Reps greater then 52% or?
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.089 0.099 0.090 0.088 0.125 0.100
DEM04_L52 0.225 0.232 0.220 0.209 0.266 0.235
REP04_L52 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.192 0.228 0.203
REP04_G52 0.470 0.479 0.480 0.415 0.507 0.480
I added the numbers for X gets the biggest share but less than 52% and X gets more than 52%. So, those numbers simply represent "X gets the bigger share".
Opening : K = $0.338 ; B = $0.682
Now : K = $0.333 ; B = $0.682
(IET 15min update)
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.088 0.090 0.092 0.088 0.125 0.099
DEM04_L52 0.230 0.240 0.230 0.209 0.266 0.234
REP04_L52 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.192 0.228 0.202
REP04_G52 0.480 0.490 0.490 0.415 0.507 0.480
Mercator
Sep30-04, 09:47 PM
What was probably most important: kerry had good hair.
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 09:49 PM
The debates are worth jack$#!t, in my opinion. I thought Al Gore did a far better job than Bush in 2000. However, Bush got a jump after the debates then. So I just throw up my hands, shake my head and walk away.
It's got nothing to do with what's said, because the average person is NOT aware enough of the issues, in order to determine what is a real answer, what is a dodge, and what is a simple wool-pulling job. Also, most people won't notice when the answer has little to do with the question.
I think your last comment is the most disturbing, and very true. I think those of us posting here are intelligent enough to know when questions are or aren't answered, but I think there are a lot of people who don't notice this at all. That's probably why Bush does well by just repeating a few key messages even if they don't answer the questions actually asked. The average joe can walk away from this with a list of 5 points Bush made and remember what he had to say. How many people will remember all the points Kerry made tonight? It confuses the average person to hear complex arguments. Kerry seemed to try hard tonight to keep things simple, to say things that fit into good soundbites, and maybe it will work...we'll have to see which quotes get aired on the morning news.
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 09:52 PM
What was probably most important: kerry had good hair.
LOL! I thought Bush looked a bit haggard when the debate started, but they must have gotten a better camera angle on him or something once it got underway.
Loren Booda
Sep30-04, 09:54 PM
I could look the accomplished Kerry in the eye; when I did look at Bush, he appeared at worst like Alfred E. Newman - "What, me worry"? I was embarrassed for him. Kerry was a skilled and presentable debater, Bush showed himself to be inept in comparison. I think America has a new, positive idea as to what Kerry would bring as president. If Bush continues the poor performance, the election may swing on the debates.
I predicted such a thing would happen, when Kerry wins the election I'm gonna tell you all that I told you so.
I didn't really hear Kerry giving any specifics about his plan for Iraq except the one comment almost at the end.
Spectre32
Sep30-04, 09:57 PM
Yeah I don't really like debates, but i will tell you this.. My dad was in Vietnam as a front line medic. He was in the airfoce and got droped outta helicopters to go patch up the wounded. HE overall dosn't like either of them, but what really got him pissed off at kerry was that he said something in his closing speech about his serivce in Vietnam. Well I can say is, if you did do something good in that Hellish place, please answer me as to why your own "unit"(Swift Boat Vets) is condemming you. I think he stomped himself there. Over all my views haven't changed.
Ivan Seeking
Sep30-04, 09:59 PM
On NBC, a group of undecided voters in Ohio were polled about their impressions of the debate. Unanimously they declared Kerry the winner. Several commented that he conveyed greater confidence as a leader.
I think what they mean is that his words actually convey information.
Gokul43201
Sep30-04, 10:01 PM
Wolf Blitzer just asked Karen Hughes if she believes A.Q. Khan (who was responsible for nuclear proliferation & sale of nuclear materiel and technology to DPRK and Libya) has been brought to justice, as Bush just claimed.
She replied that "The AQ Khan network has been seriously crippled, and President Bush ...blah blah (unrelated to question)". This is a nearly verbatim quote.
Wolf had to repeat the question because it wasn't answered the first time, adding this time if she believed Khan had been brought to justice, seeing that he had been pardoned and is a free man serving no punishment whatsoever. Again a dodge... <shrug>
phatmonky
Sep30-04, 10:03 PM
On NBC, a group of undecided voters in Ohio were polled about their impressions of the debate. Unanimously they declared Kerry the winner. Several commented that he conveyed greater confidence as a leader.
I think what they mean is that his words actually convey information.
I'm a Bush supporter, at this point, and I agree.
Again, I think this is a tactic and Bush's expectations have been lowered. The next two debates will finish with Bush as a win, and then tied (atleast in the poll's eyes)
Gokul43201
Sep30-04, 10:05 PM
On NBC, a group of undecided voters in Ohio were polled about their impressions of the debate. Unanimously they declared Kerry the winner. Several commented that he conveyed greater confidence as a leader.
I think what they mean is that his words actually convey information.
Bill Hemmer of CNN was 3 blocks away from me, at the Ohio State University, doing the same. Results haven't been released yet (and they had meters where they could relay real time emotion) but it looked like the women liked Bush better, especially when he said "you can not denigrate the soldiers". The men seemed to like Kerry better.
Gokul43201
Sep30-04, 10:07 PM
Say phatmonky, did this debate affect your slant in any way ? Did anyone gain/lose points in your evaluation ?
Who else here is closer to the fence than the average liberal/conservative ?
Ivan Seeking
Sep30-04, 10:07 PM
The first debate is historically the most important. If this is their strategy then it could well backfire. Personally, I don't this was the case. I think that for the first time people are seeing Bush held accountable for real answers.
Edit: wow this is moving fast. I was responding to phatmonky
I'm a Bush supporter, at this point, and I agree.
Again, I think this is a tactic and Bush's expectations have been lowered. The next two debates will finish with Bush as a win, and then tied (atleast in the poll's eyes)
I think this is similar to the Gore debate. Those of us who debate and follow reporting and soundbytes on a regular basis are probably following the details of the debate closer then those who don't. Others will be hearing only the strongest repeated soundbytes. Repeating and ending with strong statements IS Bushes strength. For those who are not politically savvy...that will be what sticks in their mind over the next few days.
I thought Al Gore did a far better job than Bush in 2000.
I totally agree, but Gore did come off as a 'know-it-all' which many people disliked. Too bad though, would have made a MUCH better president than Bush...but who wouldn't? :tongue2:
Anyway, Kerry did a MUCH better job than Bush, IMO. Kerry gave good, articulate answers, and he did express his plans. The voters now know much more about him.
Bush was unimpressive and at sometimes even laughable. Actually, I was watching it with a buddy and at least half a dozen times we burst out laughing. Oh my...
It's gonna be interesting to see the new polls after this one.
phatmonky
Sep30-04, 10:13 PM
Say phatmonky, did this debate affect your slant in any way ? Did anyone gain/lose points in your evaluation ?
Who else here is closer to the fence than the average liberal/conservative ?
I only caught half of the debates so I can only comment on the general feeling. I'm looking for full footage online right now and will make a full out post when I do. I started giving my impressions so far, but I will reserve them for when I make a post about the whole thing :)
IET update....
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.089 0.092 0.089 0.088 0.125 0.099
DEM04_L52 0.221 0.232 0.234 0.209 0.266 0.234
REP04_L52 0.194 0.195 0.194 0.192 0.228 0.202
REP04_G52 0.487 0.490 0.496 0.415 0.507 0.480
Using Gokuls method:
K= $0.31; B= $0.681 (Opening : K = $0.338 ; B = $0.682)
Ivan Seeking
Sep30-04, 10:14 PM
Yes like,
Q: How do you respond to allegations that you lied about Iraq
A Bush: [long, silent, deer-in-the-headlights look]...um, er, I don't take it personally.
Jim Lerher: um...okay. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
Yeah I don't really like debates, but i will tell you this.. My dad was in Vietnam as a front line medic. He was in the airfoce and got droped outta helicopters to go patch up the wounded. HE overall dosn't like either of them, but what really got him pissed off at kerry was that he said something in his closing speech about his serivce in Vietnam. Well I can say is, if you did do something good in that Hellish place, please answer me as to why your own "unit"(Swift Boat Vets) is condemming you. I think he stomped himself there. Over all my views haven't changed.
They're condemning him because they were paid to.
The fact that he won (not 1 but) 4 medals, 3 Purple Hearts and 1 Silver star (last time I checked) Convinces me he saw combat somewhere, either that or this is the biggest military scam I've ever heard of.
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 10:20 PM
Here's my report back from another current events board. I was expecting a flurry of posts there about the debate and went to check them out. For the past 6 months or so, there have been a clearly divided band of Bush supporters and Kerry supporters, neither wavering from their sides. To my shock and amazement, quite a few of the Bush supporters were starting to waver after tonight's debate and the Kerry supporters seem to be even more solidly on his side. Some of these folks I thought were die-hard conservatives who would never even consider voting for anyone other than a republican, but even they admitted to being impressed with Kerry. He came across not only polished, with good answers, but as "likeable." Remember, even though Gore did really well in the 2000 debates, he never connected with voters and never came across as likeable. Anyway, it seems this debate actually got people thinking and not just voting party lines. Even if in the end people previously supporting Bush stay with Bush, I think they are at least more willing to listen to what Kerry has to say now and make a more informed choice. That is a huge leap forward!
They're condemning him because they were paid to.
The fact that he won (not 1 but) 4 medals, 3 Purple Hearts and 1 Silver star (last time I checked) Convinces me he saw combat somewhere, either that or this is the biggest military scam I've ever heard of.
Oh BULL****, nobody paid my father for condemning him, nobody paid his father for condemning him...MY father was right there at monkey mountain, saaaammeee time period as Kerry...only my father didn't abuse the system to get out after 3.25 months. There is also a rapidly building case that it WAS a scam, if it wasn't then Kerry could just release his after action report for PH#1 along with the rest of his records.
I was refering to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (only public group I know of - Canadian)
Your father is one of the swift boat veterans for truth?
graphic7
Sep30-04, 11:26 PM
Something Kerry kept mentioning caught my attention - he kept bringing up his service in Vietnam. On the same note, I noticed something that Bush was doing that caught my eye - not mentioning any part of his military service (even if it was only in the National Guard). Perhaps, Bush *knows* his service record isn't admirable of any attention whatsoever, therefore, he knows it's not smart of him to mention it. This might be hard for you to admit Kat, but don't you see that was somewhat validating Kerry's service record?
Something Kerry kept mentioning caught my attention - he kept bringing up his service in Vietnam. On the same note, I noticed something that Bush was doing that caught my eye - not mentioning any part of his military service (even if it was only in the National Guard). Perhaps, Bush *knows* his service record isn't admirable of any attention whatsoever, therefore, he knows it's not smart of him to mention it. This might be hard for you to admit Kat, but don't you see that was somewhat validating Kerry's service record?
Well, I think that Bush directly complimented Kerry on his service, both in vietnam and his 20 years as a senator. I don't think Bush will mention his service for two reasons. 1. It isn't going to benefit him at this point, in any shape or form. and 2. People aren't going to judge Bush on his guard service at this point, they are going to judge him on the past 4 years.
Kerry doesn't have that...he can only talk about his Senate experience which is not going to win him the presidency, it has never worked for any other candidate and he's more to the left then any other presidential candidate with senate experience. Senators don't do well in presidential races. Because of that he has only his vietnam experience....or his post vietnam experience..which might appeal to some of you..but not to a majority!
Finally, it's not up to Bush to validate Kerry's vietnam experience. It's up to those of us who were effected by his actions. Other vet's and POW"s, and their families. Honestly, Bush could tell me that Kerry was the greatest hero since John Wayne..and I'd say "screw you" in a capitol way.
Your right, In fact I think it was only brought up once by the dude asking the questions....
BTW, who writes those questions?
Some interesting commentary being drudged up at http://www.drudgereport.com/ ......developing....... :rofl:
FLASH: Kerry stated: 'That's why they had to close down the subway in New York when the Republican Convention was there.' (Driving home point that Bush as not done enough to protect the country.)
The NYC subway did not close at all during the convention, according to a report on cable outlet NY1...
LOCKHART: DEBATE CONSENSUS A 'DRAW'
Unbeknownst to Kerry adviser Mike McCurry, a C-SPAN camera quietly followed McCurry as he found Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart on Spin Alley floor and asked him his impression of the debate. Lockhart candidly said to McCurry , “The consensus is it was a draw.”
what doe it mean "'Zingers and gotchas'"
Gokul43201
Sep30-04, 11:53 PM
Okay folks, Kerry Won the Debate, big time...not that that necessarily makes a difference.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/
http://www.cnn.com/ poll says Kerry won (79%), Bush won (18%), even (3%)
Couldn't find a poll at FOXNews.com
I was refering to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (only public group I know of - Canadian)
Your father is one of the swift boat veterans for truth?
Listen, a mans unit doesn't turn on him like that for money. a few men maybe..but not so overwhelming. His father, a vietnam vet recognizes that. Hence his statement. My father was Airforce out of the same general area that Kerry patroled, he came back just after Kerry's senate speech.
There are several very large groups, Vietnam Veterans against Kerry, Vietnam POW's against Kerry. Note, none of these are "for" Bush.
i don't know much about american politics, however,
our newspapers here have had a very bad comment on bush, bush had made iraq war a second vietnam war, US is in mire now, stuck in iraq, can't go further, can't retreat!
read this
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5932469/
Moonbear
Sep30-04, 11:59 PM
what doe it mean "'Zingers and gotchas'"
I'm not sure I'll explain this exactly right, because they are slang, so don't have easy definitions, but essentially mean witty, pointed remarks. Gotcha originates from "got you" as in I win (if you tricked somebody with a joke, you might tell that person "gotcha" when you reveal they've been fooled). Zingers imply more of a sting to the words.
bush does not know how to manage economy,
he will make america bankcrupt
Zingers are one line comments that ZIIIINNNGG in other words hit you hard and fast.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 12:06 AM
Your right, In fact I think it was only brought up once by the dude asking the questions....
BTW, who writes those questions?
The questions were supposedly written by Jim Lehrer himself, the moderator, who is also the Host of Newshour, on PBS.
The questions were supposedly written by Jim Lehrer himself, the moderator, who is also the Host of Newshour, on PBS.
WEll, I think he did a crappy job of developing the questions. What about economy? health care? social security?
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 12:12 AM
This is fascinating :http://www.kerryhatersforkerry.com/
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 12:16 AM
WEll, I think he did a crappy job of developing the questions. What about economy? health care? social security?
He wasn't allowed (by the guidelines agreed upon by the two sides) to ask questions relating those issues. The Bush lawyers insisted upon (and got) a full debate dedicated entirely to National Security.
Not his fault, that.
Ivan Seeking
Oct1-04, 12:19 AM
The questions were supposedly written by Jim Lehrer himself, the moderator, who is also the Host of Newshour, on PBS.
He still may have been given the subjects. I didn't hear this point clarified. Otherwise, I agree with Kat; the questions were too narrow.
Moonbear
Oct1-04, 12:27 AM
He wasn't allowed (by the guidelines agreed upon by the two sides) to ask questions relating those issues. The Bush lawyers insisted upon (and got) a full debate dedicated entirely to National Security.
Not his fault, that.
That was one thing that bothered me about both candidates...the laundry list of conditions they each wanted met for the debate. I think the people organizing the debate should make the rules, not the candidates. And they should be required to answer any question the moderator wants to ask them, not pick and choose in advance what they want to cover. Then we'd really see who knows their stuff...no memorizing five sentences that you can repeat for every question!
But, if the topic was Bush's choice, then that's even worse for him to have seemed so horribly unprepared for so many of the questions.
Ivan Seeking
Oct1-04, 12:31 AM
I should have known. [gokul43201's post wasn't up yet when I posted]
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 12:32 AM
He still may have been given the subjects. I didn't hear this point clarified. Otherwise, I agree with Kat; the questions were too narrow.
From the transcript of the debate :
Lehrer : ...Tonight‘s will last 90 minutes, following detailed rules of engagement worked out by representatives of the candidates. I have agreed to enforce their rules on them.
The umbrella topic is foreign policy and homeland security, but the specific subjects were chosen by me, the questions were composed by me, the candidates have not been told what they are, nor has anyone else.
Ivan Seeking
Oct1-04, 12:36 AM
And I wasn't even thinking about the future debates. How many did they agree to again?
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 12:41 AM
Three, total. That was a win for Kerry's side. But, in exchange, he had to yield on almost all the other details to the Bush guys.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 12:53 AM
Another IEM update :
9:00pm ET : K = $0.338 ; B = $0.682
10:30pm ET: K = $0.333 ; B = $0.682
1:30am ET : K = $0.343 ; B = $0.665
This suggests to me that a majority of the traders here are conservative. Just after the debate ended, they thought Bush did better, but after reading/watching/gauging nationwide opinion, they bought heavily into Kerry.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 01:04 AM
That was one thing that bothered me about both candidates...the laundry list of conditions they each wanted met for the debate.
Here's some of the points they were battling over :
Kerry wanted the temperature below 70F, Bush, above.
Kerry wanted transparent podia (or whatever the things are called that they hide behind), Bush wanted opaque ones.
Kerry didn't want the timing lights to be visible to the people, Bush did.
I can understand the first and last, but the second point makes me raise an eyebrow.
Ivan Seeking
Oct1-04, 01:06 AM
USA Radio Network News just reported that "most" people felt Bush won the debate.
The soundbites chosen tell it all. Very pro Bush.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 01:14 AM
USA Radio Network News just reported that "most" people felt Bush won the debate.
The soundbites chosen tell it all. Very pro Bush.
I've been looking for something from Fox News. This is the best I found :
From foxnews.com :
Flash Polls
Both CBS and ABC released quickie reaction polls. The CBS survey of 200 "fence sitters" showed 44 percent said Kerry won, 26 percent said Bush won and 30 percent said it was a tie. The ABC numbers were similar in that 45 percent gave the edge to Kerry while 36 chose Bush and 17 percent said it was a tie.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 01:23 AM
The TV's on with a repeat of the whole debate happening, and I just heard this (again) :
LEHRER: New question, Mr. President. Two minutes.
What about Senator Kerry‘s point, the comparison he drew between the priorities of going after Osama bin Laden and going after Saddam Hussein?
BUSH: .... Of course we‘re after Saddam Hussein—I mean bin Laden.
This is not the first occurance in recent times of folks confusing Osama with Saddam. In a speech, a couple of weeks ago, Rumsfeld made this same slip twice, except he went on without realizing that "Saddam Hussein" was not hiding in caves.
I wonder why ?
I can understand the first and last, but the second point makes me raise an eyebrow.
Why do you think the third makes sense? It was mostly Bush that went over his limit or got stuck filling time, the lights just made this obvious.
I doubt the second would have much sense to me beforehand, but it does coincide with the candidates' respective postures while speaking tonight.
do you have independent nominee for your president?
Just looking at style points, I think Kerry won this debate. I think the lights on the podium were the deciding factor.
At the start of the debate, Bush's answers were very strong .... until he realized his answer wasn't very long.
The space filling comments stepped all over his main point and often caused him problems with the clock. By time he was able to figure out where the space filling comments were going, he had to force a conclusion to his answers to beat the clock.
He made some adustments as the debate went along, leaving some of his answers short and undiluted, but the early struggle to fill up time seemed to cause him to wear out as the debate went on. He wound up repeating the same thing over and over, as if he was just too tired to think anymore.
The clock didn't seem to cause Kerry as many problems as Bush. He occasionally had to 'invent' a logical conclusion to his answer due to time, but usually had his comments timed well and brought them to a strong conclusion right on schedule. He got his main points across much stronger than Bush did.
No visible clock - Bush could have stopped talking as soon as he made his point. He would have come across as very clear and concise. A visible clock and the fear that a short answer would be seen as ... [what? what's wrong with short answers?] .... left Bush struggling.
Kerry is a lot better debater than Bush. Kerry controlled his nonverbals a lot better. Bush appeared very strong at times, but also appeared a little whiny at times as if he were begging not to be fired.
Very little new info for those who have followed the campaign, but that's not who these debates are really for, anyway.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 09:05 AM
Why do you think the third makes sense? It was mostly Bush that went over his limit or got stuck filling time, the lights just made this obvious.
I doubt the second would have much sense to me beforehand, but it does coincide with the candidates' respective postures while speaking tonight.
Mostly Bush didn't have enough to say, but they thought Kerry would overshoot very often. In fact, the Kerry lawyers were trying to get more time per question.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 09:10 AM
Yet another IEM update :
9:00pm ET : K = $0.338 ; B = $0.682
10:30pm ET: K = $0.333 ; B = $0.682
1:30am ET : K = $0.343 ; B = $0.665
10:00am ET : K = $0.352 ; B = $0.651
russ_watters
Oct1-04, 02:09 PM
The TV's on with a repeat of the whole debate happening, and I just heard this (again) :
This is not the first occurance in recent times of folks confusing Osama with Saddam. In a speech, a couple of weeks ago, Rumsfeld made this same slip twice, except he went on without realizing that "Saddam Hussein" was not hiding in caves.
I wonder why ? Well, Saddam was captured in a hole in the ground...
the number 42
Oct1-04, 02:27 PM
A bad showing on the first debate will be a winner for Bush in the next 2.
Do you need an IQ of 129 to understand this? Bush the Genius is putting up a smokescreen of ineptitude in order to lull Kerry into a false sense of security? Sacrificing the pawn of the first debate in order to secure the other two? :confused:
I personally would love it if Bush Jr turned out to be that intelligent (and good an actor). It would be like discovering proof of telepathy, or finding out that 6 was 9 all along.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 02:37 PM
Well, Saddam was captured in a hole in the ground...
You wouldn't raise that objection if you'd heard or read what Rummy actually said.
I stopped short, but he said something like "Saddam Hussein is running scared. He's hiding in the caves somewhere near Afghanistan-Pakistan border and we haven't seen a video of him since what, over 2 years now."
That was after he'd said " Saddam Hussein ordered the execution of <some name>, a member of the Northern Alliance." This he corrected, however.
Mostly Bush didn't have enough to say, but they thought Kerry would overshoot very often. In fact, the Kerry lawyers were trying to get more time per question.
The idea that Kerry would prefer more time makes sense, but unless he has had a history of running over his time in this kind of formal situation (I have no idea if he does or not), I'm not sure why this necessarily corresponds to preferences about the visibility of the clocks. In general, I would expect that details that expose the mechanics of the debate would tend to favor Kerry, but I'm just speculating—what do I know about debate stage management?
Moonbear
Oct1-04, 08:13 PM
Here's some of the points they were battling over :
Kerry wanted the temperature below 70F, Bush, above.
Kerry wanted transparent podia (or whatever the things are called that they hide behind), Bush wanted opaque ones.
Kerry didn't want the timing lights to be visible to the people, Bush did.
I can understand the first and last, but the second point makes me raise an eyebrow.
So, anyone know what temperature was agreed upon? Did Bush want to sweat visibly throughout the debate? Raise the temp above 70, plus all that stage lighting, and they'd both be sweating and looking nervous.
I don't know about transparent podia. Though, Bush does have a tendency to lean on the podia, and who knows, maybe Kerry knows of some fidgeting Bush does that we haven't seen through podia before? Then again, I heard Bush wanted some sort of pitcher's mound thing behind the podia to offset the 5 inch height difference between him and Kerry, so maybe Kerry anticipated this, so that's why he wanted transparent podia, to show that Bush had to stand on a crate to reach the top of the podium :tongue:
That last one is funny...I can see why going into the debate they'd each want it that way, but then Bush wound up being the one going over while I only saw Kerry run overtime twice, and then only by a few words to finish up a sentence. On one question, I thought Lehrer was going to have to cut Bush off since they already started blinking the red light at him and he was still talking. Bush also would just start extending the debate without waiting for permission from Lehrer as he was supposed to. Some times he did have an actual rebuttal, but other times it was stupid...he would just restate what he said the first time that Kerry already knocked apart, so Bush came across sounding like a child who just has to keep repeating himself to try to make his point rather than actually giving an effective argument.
There still seem to be a lot of Bush supporters in denial. They are all saying he'll do better in the next two. But, this first was foreign affairs, this was supposed to be his strongest debate. I think the next debate is domestic issues, which Kerry already was stronger on. I can't recall what the third debate topic is.
One of Bush's statements struck me as especially funny. He was replying to Kerry's comments regarding better homeland security (x-rays of cargo on flights, inspecting containers arriving at our ports, securing mass transit, such as the NY subway system that had to be shut down to make NY safe enough for Bush to visit for the RNC, securing chemical plants, increasing funding for police and firefighters, and securing loose nuclear materials in the former Soviet Union) in lieu of tax breaks for the rich. In response to this, Bush said, "I don’t want to get to how he’s going to pay for all these services. That’s...like...a huge tax gap." From a President who has taken us from a surplus to a deficit and thinks he can continue to cut taxes while continuing to fund war in Iraq, that struck me as amazingly absurd. The only thing that kept me from crying was that I was laughing too hard at the way he said it. He sounded like a teenager arguing with a parent: that's...like...so unfair!
"I think that Kerry did a good job." (Sen. John McCain, MSNBC, 9/30/04)
"Kerry was forceful and articulate." (Bill Kristol, Fox News Channel, 9/30/04)
"We saw Bush smirking...Kerry was more poised." (Wolf Blitzer, CNN, 9/30/04)
"Kerry's done a good job of becoming Mr. Homeland Security." (Jon Meacham, Newsweek on MSNBC, 9/30/04)
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 08:23 PM
So, anyone know what temperature was agreed upon? Did Bush want to sweat visibly throughout the debate? Raise the temp above 70, plus all that stage lighting, and they'd both be sweating and looking nervous.
It was set above 70. Kerry's supposed to be a sweater (not the woolly things you wear in the cold), and according to one of Bush's lawyers. "women don't like a sweater". Bush, however, can handle Texas summer heat without breaking into a sweat.
This is a little off-topic, but the above paragraph just reminded me of a cartoon in the New Yorker, that I read nearly 4 years ago. It showed Bush in the Oval Office asking Colin Powell : "So India and Pakistan are fighting over sweaters ?" :biggrin:
In the same spirit as Saint's quotes, on the O'Reilly Factor, Richard Morris explained Bush's problem as lack of preparation. According to him, it's a problem easily fixed. "It's like a homework problem."
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 08:35 PM
"I think that Kerry did a good job." (Sen. John McCain, MSNBC, 9/30/04)
"Kerry was forceful and articulate." (Bill Kristol, Fox News Channel, 9/30/04)
"We saw Bush smirking...Kerry was more poised." (Wolf Blitzer, CNN, 9/30/04)
"Kerry's done a good job of becoming Mr. Homeland Security." (Jon Meacham, Newsweek on MSNBC, 9/30/04)
I'm not sure where Saint pulled these from (probably some liberal discussion group) or what the point here is but they are definitely not all representative of the intent of the speaker.
For instance, I heard the John McCain quote, live last night. The sentence before the quoted one was, "Bush won the debate."
Of course, he had to say that, but that's a different matter.
Gokul43201
Oct1-04, 09:34 PM
Just to recapture some of the memorable moments (pre-empting some of the ads that will no-doubt come out in the next few days) : http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/041001/photos_lf_afp/041001180150_v79quxjw_photo0&e=7
Ivan Seeking
Oct1-04, 10:10 PM
This is an interesting quote from a previously undecided voter on a PBS panel.
Before the debate I thought we had a bumbler - Kerry - and a bungler - Bush. After the debate, I thought, Kerry's not such a bumbler, but we still have a bungler.
Another interesting comment from a previously undecided voter was that of a woman who is most concerned about nuclear materials. She pointed out that by addressing the issue of X-Soviet's nuclear materials, as he did, Kerry wants to secure the materials before it reaches the hands of terrorists. It seems that Bush was not willing to address this issue. "[approx] He wants to wait until the terrorists get the materials".
Also, I like this re Iraq:
Bush: Kerry has the same plan as us.
Bush: Kerry's plan won't work.
I thought Kerry scored a huge hit when he quoted from Bush Senior's book.
You know, the president's father did not go into Iraq, into Baghdad, beyond Basra. And the reason he didn't is, he said -- he wrote in his book -- because there was no viable exit strategy. And he said our troops would be occupiers in a bitterly hostile land. That's exactly where we find ourselves today. There's a sense of American occupation.
The only building that was guarded when the troops went into Baghdad was the oil ministry. We didn't guard the nuclear facilities.
We didn't guard the foreign office, where you might have found information about weapons of mass destruction. We didn't guard the borders.
His father also had a genuine coalition.
What I can't understand is how Bush can keep saying this:
As well, help is on the way, but it's certainly hard to tell it when he voted against the $87 billion supplemental [bill] to provide equipment for our troops, and then said he actually did vote for it before he voted against it.
Are people really falling for this nonsense? These were separate bills with different attachments and Kerry insisted on talking about how to pay for this 87 billion. In other words, he was being responsible. Bush keeps using these same erroneous and dishonest claims and people actually believe it. I guess this goes back to the old adage that anything said a thousand times becomes true.
wasteofo2
Oct2-04, 06:34 AM
There's also the fact that Sean Hannity admitted Kerry won the debate on Hannity and Colmes last night. Of course he went on to say that Bush won on certain points/aspects of the debate, but the fact he admitted Kerry won on anything at all shows how amazing he did.
BoulderHead
Oct2-04, 08:08 AM
I haven’t read this thread because, well, politics bores me and this thread is growing too rapidly courtesy of all you enthusiasts. Still, as I’m now temporarily residing in the US I had access and did in fact view roughly 60% of the pappy-show first debate. My thoughts; Senator Kerry has a good speaking voice and his responses were presented well. President Bush, on the other hand, is not as articulate and clearly struggled over what to say several times. It was obvious he took strong objection some of the comments made by Senator Kerry and wanted very much to retort effectively but was not able to. Still, I have little respect for professional politicians so I would not hold this ineptitude against President Bush, though I would not vote for either candidate. I cut short the debate for a rerun of I Love Lucy.
Gokul43201
Oct2-04, 10:19 AM
It was obvious he took strong objection some of the comments made by Senator Kerry and wanted very much to retort effectively but was not able to.
You too get the feeling he was muttering under his breath, something to the effect of, "Just let me get down there, and I'll clobber your little pinko @$$" ! :rolleyes:
If you read his lips, you'd realized he was muttering "This is hard work".
On the first debate.
Kerry came out ahead. Then fell behind. Then came up from that and pulled forward to the end. Kerry's ahead in terms of the first debate.
Bush's downfall is his positive in his ideology and debating style. He is a living epitomy of compomised values, and political theory mental disorder. Two examples:
His Big Ideology: He's convinced citizens in our country it's okay to murder innoncent Iraqis for oil. We've been doing it. We're doing it now. He wants four more years of it.
And in the debate: Where are we getting the money for these things Kerry says he's gonna do? Bush acts like there is no choice for Americans but to murder, then steal.
Kerry has postives mixed with his negatives too, but really only on the war in Iraq. He needs to get us out in four months, compensate for the Republican terrorism upon Iraq, instead of four years
But, he has idealogical clearity that is uncomprimissed on many issues that will create efficiency rather than cost money, which is where Bushs tries to confuse the argument. A change of velocity will take less energy than the energy saved fromt the change. That's what Bush doesn't want you to see in Kerry's plan.
I find it humorous that Kerry wants to make a deal to buy some of North Koreas Nukes. I'm sure they'll have a few extra behind for further talks. Good for N. Korea.
Loren Booda
Oct2-04, 06:39 PM
What if we, as U.S. citizens, had the duty to vote against fomenting war in Iraq? See you November 2.
Gokul43201
Oct3-04, 12:58 AM
Newsweek claims Kerry's up : http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&e=2&u=/ap/20041003/ap_on_el_pr/bush
Newsweek claims Kerry's up : http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&e=2&u=/ap/20041003/ap_on_el_pr/bush
Gokul, do you have the internals for the new newsweek polls? As I remember it the previous Newsweek poll was heavily weighted on the republican side which would of course skew results in favor of repubs. Frankly, I think newsweek weights their polls to make news and are not reflective of any reliable statistics.
Gokul43201
Oct3-04, 10:02 AM
I don't trust this poll either....but it seemed to be the first one that came out. I'm gonna wait till tomorrow; we should hear more, then.
There's a warped part of my phsyci that's rubbing it's hands in anticipation of the surprises of October....any guesses as to what they might be?
it was painfull to watch,
Gokul43201
Oct8-04, 12:18 AM
Yet another IET update (for whoever's interested):
On 10/01/04, before first debate : K = $0.338 ; B = $0.682
Immediately after debate (10:30pm ET) : K = $0.333 ; B = $0.682
Next morning (10:00am ET) : K = $0.352 ; B = $0.651
One week later, nearly (10/08/04) : K = $0.445 ; B = $0.568
There's a warped part of my phsyci that's rubbing it's hands in anticipation of the surprises of October....any guesses as to what they might be?
A new explanation for Bush's pauses, facial expressions, and hunched posture during the first debate, perhaps?
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/10/08/bulge/index_np.html
http://www.electoral-vote2.com/images/bulge.jpg
Moonbear
Oct8-04, 06:26 PM
A new explanation for Bush's pauses, facial expressions, and hunched posture during the first debate, perhaps?
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/10/08/bulge/index_np.html
http://www.electoral-vote2.com/images/bulge.jpg
I've seen people posting this elsewhere, mostly the image shown in the first link. From that one, I just thought it was nothing more than an odd wrinkle in his jacket when he leaned forward. The second link has an image with a touch better clarity. It actually looks more like he may be wearing a bullet-proof vest under his clothing. That might seem like a reasonable security precaution for a president. But, it still could just be the fabric of his jacket pulling in a funny way. It's a silly rumor that anyone was feeding him answers.
Ivan Seeking
Oct8-04, 06:40 PM
Is everyone ready for number two?
If Kerry kicks butt again tonight, Bush is in deep doo doo. I really expect Kerry to do better here than in the last debate but he had more to prove last time - he needed to look presidential, and strong - so the impact may not be so great; even if he does very well. I also think Kerry stands a better chance of getting too complicated and losing people this time. Bush may crash and burn on the facts.
graphic7
Oct8-04, 06:46 PM
I'm looking forward very much to this debate tonight. There shouldn't be so much repetition considering that tonight's debate is not about foreign policy - Iraq, in general. I'm going to be watching to see if Kerry or Bush stray from the subject matter and go into some foreign issue, Iraq, for example.
But as you said, Ivan, Kerry is going to have to be very careful not to complicate things. Edwards was even having a hard time defining the 'global test' quote. I think as long as Kerry stays with the facts, he's got Bush beat. :smile:
Ivan Seeking
Oct8-04, 07:20 PM
Bush is now officially the first president in 72 years to lose jobs on his watch - John Kerry; responding to today's jobs report
So we have the greatest blunder in foreign policy, and the greatest failure in creating jobs in 72 years. Bush is quickly gaining historical status.
Edit: misquote, sorry about that.
Gokul43201
Oct8-04, 08:16 PM
I think Bush'll do better this time. For one thing, he'll be better prepared, and will be coached to not repeat his earlier screw-ups. And it's a more informal setting, and the speakers get feedback from the audience. Bush thrives on that. Kerry tends to be more professorish, which worked well for the formal, strictly regulated first debate, but could work against him now.
klusener
Oct8-04, 08:30 PM
I think this has been a good start for Kerry, but Bush has really learned some few lessons from the last debate: not look like a chimpanzee and not smirk a lot...
graphic7
Oct8-04, 08:37 PM
Bush made himself look like a child when he violated the rules. :smile:
Moonbear
Oct8-04, 08:54 PM
Bush made himself look like a child when he violated the rules. :smile:
He's proving that he's impatient and impulsive by continually jumping up and rebutting when the moderator hasn't allowed it. But, I agree, he's learned some lessons from last time. Was pretty fidgety in the beginning, and still seemed to be making some faces...I think he was trying hard to not smirk. Instead of smirking, he's spending some time thinking about his answers while Kerry is talking.
Ivan Seeking
Oct8-04, 09:02 PM
If you're a Redsocks fan? whoops!
Ivan Seeking
Oct8-04, 09:05 PM
On the other hand, "if you want to be popular in the halls of Europe...". Bush's language towards Europe has been harsh at least twice.
Spin: How do you build a coalition if you insult your allies?
Bush is not making sense. He stated or implied that taxing small business owners [making over 200,000 per year] through personal income tax reduces expansion and hiring. This is not true. The personal tax only affects net income after operating expenses - including employee salaries and benefits.
Moonbear
Oct8-04, 09:13 PM
He never answered that question about mending the hard feelings of our allies (or is that former allies) toward us, instead he told us that he made a lot of unpopular decisions. Duh! We knew that part, that's why they asked the question. So, I guess no plan to fix it.
He also had a tough time answering about the environment. His entire speech pattern changed from the tone he's held the rest of the debate.
Moonbear
Oct8-04, 09:17 PM
Just to be fair here...Kerry has also stumbled a few times in this debate. Both times dealing with medical issues. First on medicare, the second on stem cell research. It's clear that his strength is not in understanding medicine or medical research.
A minute or two ago Bush said he wanted to follow a "strict constructionist" version of the U.S. Constitution... the only problem is that nothing new could be done without adding an amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Anyway, I thought this issue was debated and decided on (with loose constructionist winning) between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson...
Spectre32
Oct8-04, 09:25 PM
My favorite was the Lumber yard commen, from Kerry to bush.. That was almost as classic as the "Global Test" statment.. Or Edwards bringing in Dick's gay daughter
Ivan Seeking
Oct8-04, 09:28 PM
Regarding worman who asked about abortion: You can see in her eyes that this issue is everything. This I think drives a large portion of Bush devotees. For a large percentage of those who support Bush on this issue, I doubt anything else really matters.
Moonbear
Oct8-04, 09:28 PM
I'm watching audience faces too. Most just look bored, but I've seen a few looking like they were in pain during these last few questions on abortion.
Moonbear
Oct8-04, 09:35 PM
Regarding worman who asked about abortion: You can see in her eyes that this issue is everything. This I think drives a large portion of Bush devotees. For those who support Bush on this issue, I doubt anything else really matters.
I think there certainly is a group of voters who do base their decision entirely on this issue. I wonder why they think it's okay to send young men out to Iraq to kill and be killed. It's this inconsistency that bugs me about this more than that these people have a different opinion of when life or personhood begins.
Ivan Seeking
Oct8-04, 09:38 PM
I predict that Kerry wins the debate: 55%, 45%.
Kerry gains another 0.2% in the popular vote over the next seven days.
I'm sure someone can find a poll that agrees with my prediction. :tongue2:
...[edit] I'm guessing it won't be kat. :biggrin:
Gokul43201
Oct8-04, 09:38 PM
Okay folks....end of part II.
Moonbear
Oct8-04, 09:41 PM
This one was at least a lot closer than the last one. No embarrassing performance by Bush. I think 45% will go to each side and 10% will say it was a tie. We need JimmyP over here to give us the odds on our bets :wink:
I think there certainly is a group of voters who do base their decision entirely on this issue. I wonder why they think it's okay to send young men out to Iraq to kill and be killed. It's this inconsistency that bugs me about this more than that these people have a different opinion of when life or personhood begins.maybe because the men and women in iraq made a choice to join the military? comparing the two simply isn't realistic.
Ivan Seeking
Oct8-04, 09:45 PM
This one was at least a lot closer than the last one. No embarrassing performance by Bush. I think 45% will go to each side and 10% will say it was a tie. We need JimmyP over here to give us the odds on our bets :wink:
all tie votes go to Kerry. :tongue2:
Really, it will probably go down as a tie.
kawikdx225
Oct8-04, 09:51 PM
Mark just said Kerry is full of BS about Patriot act!!!!!! :rofl:
selfAdjoint
Oct8-04, 10:01 PM
I think Kerry will go up a few points, but not because of this debate. Some of the questions and answers were a litttle technical, and I think by the end only the partisans were watching. The Kerry bounce has a little further to go based on the events of this week (the WMd report, Bremer, etc., not to mention the jobs disappointment). Whether that and the expected drop in Bush's popularity will carry through to election day is anybody's guess.
Ivan Seeking
Oct8-04, 10:14 PM
It is a classic American horse race. In spite of my feelings about Bush, I love watching the process and drama as it unfolds - democracy in action - with each candidate grasping for those undecided votes. Each trying to say exactly the right things to the right people in the right way...each trying to walk a tight-rope and balance the truth with spin...great stuff!!!
Gokul43201
Oct8-04, 10:18 PM
I believe I'm the only one here that thinks Kerry did a lot better this time.
Tigers2B1
Oct8-04, 10:30 PM
Well I'll add this --- the farts over at the Democratic Underground (a heavily travelled Internet Board) are once again fouling the 'vote as you go' Internet instant polls with their planned gang bangs. It's Kerry in a landslide!! Hell, Kerry could have killed a baby on TV and it would have been 'Kerry by a landslide' with those half-wits. What a pissing contest.
Gokul43201
Oct8-04, 10:50 PM
So just ignore the internet polls, as any sensible person would anyway.
Moonbear
Oct8-04, 11:10 PM
Well I'll add this --- the farts over at the Democratic Underground (a heavily travelled Internet Board) are once again fouling the 'vote as you go' Internet instant polls with their planned gang bangs. It's Kerry in a landslide!! Hell, Kerry could have killed a baby on TV and it would have been 'Kerry by a landslide' with those half-wits. What a pissing contest.
What's to say the rabid rightwing aren't doing the same thing? (And before anyone jumps on me for this, I'm not referring to all conservatives, not even most, but the counterpart to the rabid left...but that doesn't have the same ring of alliteration...who think it's going to make a difference to vote a few thousand times on the internet polls). I have to say this is the first election that I've followed so closely. I've never been very interested in politics, and have always been one of those people undecided until the last moment, mostly because I'm a cynic and don't trust any politician to keep their promises. But, with this one, it's really fun to follow. Or maybe it's because I have a stronger opinion of one candidate over the other in advance.
Ivan Seeking
Oct9-04, 01:40 AM
an early return from Nightline:
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 41%
Tie: 13%
there were slighty more democrats than republicans polled.
Edit: Charley Gibson was just talking about the rules for the debate. There were 52 lines of text that described how the coin toss would be handled. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
I saw an edge for Bush in delivery. He cleaned up a lot of mistakes from the first debate. Moving around the stage improves his delivery. His messages are simple.
Both misuse numbers badly. Bush tosses out the number of jobs created over the last year, Kerry tosses out the number of jobs lost over the past 4 years (and limits his number to a particular class of jobs, at that). Neither are particularly relevant in themselves. There's a reason for that. People don't handle numbers very well.
A more effective number for Kerry would really be how many jobs/month does the economy have to add for a healthy economy? How many jobs were added? Except, that raises questions that can't be answered in 2 minutes - why does the economy have to add 170,000 jobs/month? Instead they opt for the numbers that are easier to explain.
Numbers really created problems for them when Charlie Gibson pressed them on how they plan to cut the deficit with no new taxes. (That's because neither will.)
The lasting impression from the first debate was "It's hard work" being President. The lasting impression from the second debate is "I have a plan." But, can you summarize that plan in clear, simple terms in less than 2 minutes?
Rather than try to explain the numbers or nuances of why you supported or opposed a particular bill, it's more important to get your overall view across. I thought Bush did a better job at that. If he loses this debate, it's because people don't believe in him anymore, not because he didn't get his message across.
Gokul43201
Oct9-04, 11:44 AM
Both misuse numbers badly. Bush tosses out the number of jobs created over the last year, Kerry tosses out the number of jobs lost over the past 4 years (and limits his number to a particular class of jobs, at that).
What I find surprising is that neither of them debunks the fallacious statistics of the other.
Okay, for instance, this one struck me as a little odd : Bush keeps claiming that he's created 1.8 million new jobs this year. The last I remember (I think according to the 2000 census), the population growth rate was a little over 1%. Now 1.8 million is 1.2% of the total workforce of about 150 million. So, it seems to me that the job creation rate is just about keeping pace with the population growth.
Nothing to write home about...unless I'm making a mistake somewhere.
wasteofo2
Oct9-04, 12:16 PM
What I find surprising is that neither of them debunks the fallacious statistics of the other.
Okay, for instance, this one struck me as a little odd : Bush keeps claiming that he's created 1.8 million new jobs this year. The last I remember (I think according to the 2000 census), the population growth rate was a little over 1%. Now 1.8 million is 1.2% of the total workforce of about 150 million. So, it seems to me that the job creation rate is just about keeping pace with the population growth.
Nothing to write home about...unless I'm making a mistake somewhere.
When your previous years saw the loss of millions of jobs, any net growth of jobs is something to write home about.
It's like when a 2 year old learns not to crap their pants anymore.
Ivan Seeking
Oct13-04, 06:27 PM
Okay its time for number three.
Is this where Kerry takes a defintive lead, or blows it? Will Bush keep his cool; and are his batteries charged? Expectations are high on both sides, and whatever happens, Tim Russert expects the race to open up after this - with a clear leader emerging before the election.
Ivan Seeking
Oct13-04, 07:37 PM
I heard an obvious point made this morning about Bush's attacks. How can someone be a flip-flopper and the most liberal senator in Washington at the same time?
President Oxymoron?
Oooo I'm excited. It all comes down to this!
"The winner will be showered with praise! The loser will be taunted and booed until my throat is sore!" -Homer Simpson
Gokul43201
Oct13-04, 08:01 PM
Here goes.....
So according to GW tonight, he didn't say on 3/13/02: "I don't know where he is. I, ah [laugh] I repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him." in reference to Osama Bin Laden.
Interesting...
Moonbear
Oct13-04, 08:36 PM
Bush should really avoid jokes...none of them comes across right, and just makes him sound even dumber.
And...what an idiotic response to the question of whether being gay is a choice! He said he doesn't know! Well, I already knew he makes no effort to know anything about science, especially biology.
And...what an idiotic response to the question of whether being gay is a choice! He said he doesn't know! Well, I already knew he makes no effort to know anything about science, especially biology.
Interesting. I thought the traditional Republican viewpoint was that being gay was learned from the parents.
graphic7
Oct13-04, 09:05 PM
Interesting. I thought the traditional Republican viewpoint was that being gay was learned from the parents.
What has irritated me the most is Bush's response to the question pertaining to what he would tell a person who had lost their job because it had been outsourced. He replied by saying, they need more education. In fact, many of the jobs that demand a high education are the ones that are being outsourced. Very irritating.
Moonbear
Oct13-04, 09:07 PM
What has irritated me the most is Bush's response to the question pertaining to what he would tell a person who had lost their job because it had been outsourced. He replied by saying, they need more education. In fact, many of the jobs that demand a high education are the ones that are being outsourced. Very irritating.
Maybe we should outsource him! :wink:
Gokul43201
Oct13-04, 09:14 PM
Why does Bush look like a deer caught in headlights ?
Q : "Is it time to raise the minimum wage ?"
A : (Bush) "We passed the No Child Left Behind Law..." (words "minimum wage" never heard in 90 seconds of talking)
graphic7
Oct13-04, 09:17 PM
I also love Bush's reponse to the flu question. He replied that Canada had been helping the United States solve the problem. If I remember correctly, Bush badmouthed (second debate) Canada's pharmaceutical program by saying they had not checked the quality of the generic drugs that the United States could end up importing. That's a double standard if I've ever seen one.
I think Kerry has been very sharp on pointing out Bush's conflicting statements tonight.
Moonbear
Oct13-04, 09:24 PM
Okay, Bush scores one point for saying to listen to the strong women! :biggrin: :rofl:
graphic7
Oct13-04, 09:25 PM
News flash: Bush cannot speak English - wife can, though.
I have never heard Kerry and Bush agree and complement eachother as much as I just have. Its almost like that old latin phrase Assinum assinus fricatus.
Moonbear
Oct13-04, 09:29 PM
News flash: Bush cannot speak English - wife can, though.
I really like Laura. I just wish she'd give her husband a kick in the butt more often (she doesn't always agree with her husband's policies).
Gokul43201
Oct13-04, 09:49 PM
Bill Hemmer (CNN) in Columbus, OH gauging reactions from 24 undecideds.
After debate : 10 pick K, 7 pick B, 7 still undecided.
kawikdx225
Oct13-04, 09:51 PM
Bill Hemmer (CNN) in Columbus, OH gauging reactions from 24 undecideds.
After debate : 10 pick K, 7 pick B, 7 still undecided.
What are those last seven waiting for, another debate?
GENIERE
Oct13-04, 11:00 PM
No. Kerry lost!
Saint:
Most of what I've heard so far indicates that Kerry won, but no real polls are out yet. Also, perceptions change over the day or two after the debate, so the overall effect can't be judged for a while yet.
Gokul43201
Oct13-04, 11:47 PM
Kerry lost ?
I can't see how.
Bush simply avoided questions like the Minimum wage and outsourcing of jobs. He simply refused to answer them. And his response to the homosexuality question was a joke. He denied ever saying he was not interested in bin Laden, and that's not true. I quote : "And, again, I don't know where he is. I -- I'll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him. " He blatantly twisted Kerry's words on Terrorism, in the Times. Kerry said terrorism should be reduced to the state where it is no more than a nuisance. Bush said that Kerry was calling terrorism a nuisance.
On the other hand, Kerry mentioning Cheney's daughter was totally uncalled for (unlike the case with Edwards, where the remark was perfectly fine.)
In my opinion, Bush simply went out there and refused to answer the moderator's questions...kinda like the way he didn't answer questions at the second debate, but just more blatantly this time.
Gokul43201
Oct14-04, 12:00 AM
According to instant polls taken by television networks : (these are not internet polls)
Fifty-two per cent of those polled by CNN said Kerry won the debate in Tempe, Arizona, while 39 per cent said Bush won.
The poll had a five percentage-point margin of error.
A poll by ABC found 42 per cent thought Kerry had won, versus 41 per cent who gave the victory to Bush.
Fourteen per cent called it a tie in the poll, which had a 4.5 percentage point margin of error.
In CBS's poll of uncommitted voters, 39 per cent said Kerry won, 25 per cent Bush and 36 per cent called it a tie. The margin of error was seven percentage points.
Mercator
Oct14-04, 12:08 AM
No. Kerry lost!
And the earth is flat! And Socialists are communists, except when their name is Blair, in which case they are allies.
Ivan Seeking
Oct14-04, 12:30 AM
Kerry took this one. I think this may really hurt Bush. He had some pretty bad moments.
So much for Kerry the flip-flop; just say Bin Laden. :rofl:
...not only caught flip-flopping on the war on terror, but then to get caught lying - and like a deer in the headlights.
Kerry definitely won.
It got to the point that I couldn't even look at Bush, those beadly little eyes squinting up even more when Kerry would talk...
Loren Booda
Oct14-04, 12:46 AM
What is the correlation to an asymmetric face - something like criminality or stupidity? Bush's is so screwed up that tonight he looked like a Cubist painting.
Ivan Seeking
Oct14-04, 01:06 AM
Kerry definitely won.
It got to the point that I couldn't even look at Bush, those beadly little eyes squinting up
I hit that point about five years ago. I have never been able to fathom how this man ever got elected. It truly baffles me. I realize that the evangelical right is going to support him, but why anyone else does...???? :confused: :cry: :cry: :cry:
Having awoke up to the news of his election in a hotel room somewhere in the South, I honestly thought I was having a waking nightmare. It tooks a good thirty seconds before I realized that I wasn't dreaming the news.
Gokul43201
Oct14-04, 01:11 AM
...not only caught flip-flopping on the war on terror, but then to get caught lying - and like a deer in the headlights.
:eek: Is that an original thought, or did you read my post ? :eek:
Ivan Seeking
Oct14-04, 01:17 AM
:eek: Is that an original thought, or did you read my post ? :eek:
I saw your comments but I already had my own.
What more does a person need to see. I just don't get it. :yuck:
Moonbear
Oct14-04, 01:21 AM
One of my favorite lines from this one:
And she speaks English a lot better than I do.* I think people understand what she‘s saying.
Said in reference to his wife, Laura. If Bush ends up winning, do you think we might convince him to let his wife run the country?
Moonbear
Oct14-04, 01:34 AM
What is the correlation to an asymmetric face - something like criminality or stupidity? Bush's is so screwed up that tonight he looked like a Cubist painting.
Oh, I couldn't resist looking that up :biggrin:
Shackelford, T. K., & Larsen, R. J. (1997). Facial asymmetry as an indi-
cator of psychological, emotional, and physiological distress. Jour-
nal of Personality and Social Psychology, 72, 456-466.
Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) is deviation from bilateral symmetry in morphological traits with asymmetry values that are normally distributed with a mean of 0. FA is produced by genetic or environmental perturbations of developmental design and may play a role in human sexual selection. K. Grammer and R. Thornhill (1994)found that facial FA negatively covaries with observer ratings of attractiveness, dominance, sexiness, and health. Using self-reports, observer ratings, daily diary reports, and psychophysiological measures, the authors assessed the relationship between facial FA and health in 2 samples of undergraduates (N= 101). Results partially replicate and extend those of K. Grammer and R. Thornhill (1994)and suggest that facial FA may signal psychological, emotional, and physiological distress. Discussion integrates the authors’ findings with previous research on FA and suggests future research needed to clarify the role of FA in human sexual selection.
I wonder what it means to have a face that looks like something Dali would have painted? You know, Kerry's droopy dog look. :wink:
Gokul43201
Oct14-04, 08:21 AM
I wonder what it means to have a face that looks like something Dali would have painted? You know, Kerry's droopy dog look.
Ooh ! Wouldn't that be surreal ? :biggrin:
Bush almost let loose on a tirade about how the news networks paint him all wrong. God, I was on the edge of my seat, just desperately waiting for him to say something about the media portraying him unfairly. The media's reaction would have been a nail in the coffin, if you ask me. The media is an extremely unfriendly enemy.
But then, he laughed and said "nevermind," which I'm not sure is much better.
- Warren
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