Kerry's X Factor? [Archive]

Ivan Seeking

Oct21-04, 08:22 PM

..."We're living politics right now, everywhere you turn," said Kevin Glat, auditor in Burleigh County, N.D. "It was such a close race four years ago that people are finally coming to the realization that every vote does count." [continued]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/ap/20041019/ap_on_el_pr/winning_the_new_voters

Some districts have already recieved up to 12% of the ballots...some are anticipating an 80-90% turn out
-- KGW (NBC, Portland, Or.) Morning News 10/21/04

New voters are swinging heavily for Kerry
-- Tim Russert; NBC Nightly News, 10/21/04

Could we see a November surprise?

check

Oct21-04, 08:35 PM

Could we see a November surprise?

What, of Kerry winning? I'd be MORE suprised if Bush won. :approve:

Ivan Seeking

Oct21-04, 08:43 PM

I mean a much more decisive victory for Kerry than the polls would indicate. It seems that there may be a lot of new voters flying under the RADAR. I know of a few people who rarely or never vote, but who already did this year due to their anger with Bush.

Note that in Oregon, the voting (by mail) has already started.

check

Oct21-04, 09:11 PM

Ah. Yes, I too believe Kerry's gonna kick ***. :D
Seriously, I think we may see an eligable voter turn out near 60% with a LOT more young people voting this time around...much more even than in '92.

selfAdjoint

Oct21-04, 09:20 PM

A couple of the poll analysis sites (Democratic ones, to be sure) are calling it 318 electoral votes for Kerry. One of them has just started allocating undecided voters, using a 2:1 ratio for Kerry:Bush.

Bush has two negatives dragging on him: Gas prices and the flu vaccine farrago, which the public seems inclined to blame on him (not just, I know, but when was the public ever just?)

Gokul43201

Oct21-04, 09:30 PM

Wow ! You guys are a whole bunch more optimistic than I am.

If Kerry loses Florida, it's all over. I think he'll get Penn but Ohio looks like it's going to Bush.

Ivan Seeking

Oct21-04, 09:47 PM

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

wasteofo2

Oct21-04, 10:02 PM

Here's a fun little site where you get to see what the totals would be if whoever wins whichever states. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html
A situation which isn't hard to believe at all might actually cause an election of the president by the House of Representatives. If Bush wins all the states he did in 2000, except New Hamshire and Nevada, and Kerry gets all the rest, it will be 269 to 269.

Though there are ample ways for Kerry to win while still losing Ohio and Florida.

For instance, if Kerry could just pick up Texas, talk about a fuking surprise win!

Gokul43201

Oct21-04, 10:28 PM

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Doesn't that agree with what I'm saying ?

In fact, if you look at the Florida polls (in that site), most of them project Bush will win the state.

Math Is Hard

Oct21-04, 10:52 PM

For instance, if Kerry could just pick up Texas..
but how on earth could THAT happen?

Tsu

Oct22-04, 01:38 AM

Let's PRAY that it DOES happen!! After all, Bush's hometown newspaper won't even support him!! Guess they know him too well... :rofl:

Mazuz

Oct22-04, 03:07 AM

For what its worth, the polls indicate a lead for Bush.. unfortunately.

cragwolf

Oct22-04, 03:41 AM

Bush will win with greater than 300 electoral votes. He won't even need Florida, but he'll win that, too.

Fear 1 Hope 0.

Locrian

Oct22-04, 02:15 PM

Yah, looking at the electoral college, kerry has no chance... or at least little chance. I'm afraid that for every democrat flying under the radar, there's a republican doing that as well.

Tsu

Oct22-04, 02:23 PM

Don't underestimate the effects of a strong Grassroots movement. Many former apethetics are coming out of the woodwork to register and vote to get Bush out of office.

kat

Oct22-04, 03:02 PM

http://www.tradesports.com/

futures contract that predicts Bush to gain 300+ electoral votes has surged ahead....and I do mean suurrgggeeddd. People are putting their money where they think the votes are..

Ivan Seeking

Oct22-04, 07:07 PM

Doesn't that agree with what I'm saying ?

In fact, if you look at the Florida polls (in that site), most of them project Bush will win the state.

Obviously many interpretations are possible but here are their predicted results [as of today]: Kerry 294 Bush 244

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

Gokul43201

Oct22-04, 07:25 PM

Gokul43201

Oct22-04, 07:28 PM

Obviously many interpretations are possible but here are their predicted results [as of today]: Kerry 294 Bush 244

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

That looks deceptively optimistic. Florida going to Bush turns the whole thing around.

In fact, if you click on Florida, in their electoral map, it lists all the various polls on Florida. Their own poll is among a small minority that gives Florida to Kerry.

However, even if Bush wins Florida, Kerry can make it if he wins Wisconsin.

Ivan Seeking

Oct22-04, 07:42 PM

It assumes that new voters swing to Kerry by 2:1. This appears to be consistent with other reports surfacing ala Russert.

optimistic? I can't think of a better time. Get out the vote. The new voters could win this for Kerry.

Gokul43201

Oct23-04, 01:13 AM

Obviously many interpretations are possible but here are their predicted results [as of today]: Kerry 294 Bush 244

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

They're now calling Florida for Bush. Latest numbers are Kerry 257 Bush 271. MN is still exactly tied.

Ivan Seeking

Oct23-04, 01:22 AM

not at the site that I linked.

Wait...this just in...here's the latest...it's official...no one knows. Vote.

Gokul43201

Oct23-04, 01:49 AM

not at the site that I linked.

Yeah, I was looking at the current numbers...not their prediction.

If you click the yellow button saying "depress for current map" you'll see MN turn white, and FL turn pink.

cragwolf

Oct23-04, 02:25 AM

Bush retains a healthy lead in the Iowa Electronic Markets:

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

The effects of the debate are starting to wear off. Fear is beginning to set in. The predicted 2:1 undecided ratio to Kerry is incredibly optimistic.

Ivan Seeking

Oct25-04, 04:08 PM

According to Meet The Press, Bush's gains are in states he is already sure to win. Swing states are leaning to Kerry.

One possible outcome discussed for a couple of weeks now is that Bush wins the popular vote, and Kerry wins the electoral votes. :rofl:

That would be sweet justice!

onegermanbeerglass

Oct25-04, 06:36 PM

I've been watching the polls daily and weighing some additional factors, here are my predictions:

Regardless of who you (or I) want to win, this is what I predict:

Bush:
AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NM, NV, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI

Kerry:
CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME (all), MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WV, and of course DC

(I think I got them all)

Results: 296 to 242, Bush (292:246 CO:VI see below)

States in contention and why I predict this way:

CO: Bush will take by 8-12 points, but the voter initiative will probably pass, so the votes would be split 5/4.

FL: Polls averaged give Bush about 2 points, less 1 for the unreachables and the few undecided, still give FL to Bush by about 1%.

IA & NM: Bush will take it by at least 3%.

WI: Kerry would have WI by 1-2% if not for Nader, who will shift 1-2 points to Bush, giving Bush 2-3 points, less 1-2 from the unreachable and undecided. I'm predicted WI goes to Bush by less than 1%.

OH: Could actually go either way, I think Bush will take OH by about 1% or less when its all counted, but it could go to Kerry. If this is my only mistake (and it's the only one I wouldn't bet on) the EC still goes to Bush, 276:262 (272:266 CO:VI see above).

MN & MI: Kerry will take by about 2-3 points after factoring the unreachable/undecided.

ME & NH: because Kerry will take the whole northeast, no question there.

HI, PA, OR: Kerry will take by at least 6 points.

I predict Bush in the initial results. Legal cases may changne that outcome.

Also, my other prediction:

Barring intervention from the Supreme Court, the final results will be know Dec. 28th.

setAI

Oct26-04, 11:49 AM

18-25 year old voters are indicating an ~85% turnout [twice the turnout for 2000]- almost entirely for Kerry- same for African Americans- the polls don't reflect this- particularly the young voters who never make "likely voter" status but are completely energized right now [check your local campus]-

whatever the polls say now- add 7-10 "bonus" points to Kerry for these extra youth/minority votes [overall- but at least a 3-5 point bump for Kerry in EVERY state including the reds]- and expect many surprise close red states to go blue-

Kerry will win every state where polls show Bush is only ahead by 3-4 points ahead or less

kat

Oct26-04, 01:52 PM

onegermanbeerglass

Oct26-04, 04:19 PM

My estimates give a slide toward Kerry from average polls of 1% because of undecided voters who typically go roughly two-thirds to the challenger and the "unreachable" poll target of young people with cell phones and no home phones.

These two categories, even together, aren't large enough to swing the vote more than 2-3% even if they side 100% with one candidate.

You cannot count all young people as they are being polled already, only those following the cell phone only trend.

Also, historically, young people have polled significantly higher on their intent to vote than their actual turn out. This year will be the same in that regard. There will be higher turnout across the boards, but that won't shift polls significantly, as the increased turnout is in all groupings.

Lastly, Kerry doesn't have the advantage in the African American vote that Gore had. Polls have fairly consistantly given Bush almost twice the African American vote, in percent, as he had in the 2000 election.

Here are some of the last polls by race I saw for African Americans. Keep in mind that in 2000, Bush got roughly 9-10% of the African American vote.

NYT
Whites: Bush 52% Kerry 40%
Blacks: Bush 17% Kerry 76%

FOX
Whites: Bush 53% Kerry 39%
Blacks: Bush 11% Kerry 74%

Washington Post
Whites: Bush 56% Kerry 41%
Blacks: Bush 8% Kerry 89%

Hispanics (I lost the source on this one) Bush: 38% Kerry 47%

Also, one of the African American thinks tanks, whose name I misplaced, had Bush taking 18% of the black vote.

Average that all out and Bush gets the same as 2000 or more of the black vote.