Is Poker Just Luck? Comparing it to the Basket Game

[Physics_wiz]

If I give you a basket with three balls in it, 2 reds and 1 white, then ask you to draw a ball randomly from the basket; if you get a red you pay me $1, if you get a white I pay you $4...would you do it?

Now, I know that this is still "gambling" and that you could lose all your money and go broke if you keep on doing it, but most people would love to play me because there is more chance you will make money than lose money. I see poker as the same exact thing, but with 52 balls instead of 3. You HAVE to use probability to increase your chances of winning, otherwise you will increase your chances of losing.

I keep getting all this nonsense from some people telling me how poker is all luck and that's it. The more luck you have, the more money you make. Am I right about thinking of poker in the same terms as the basket game? There are other elements in poker that affect the outcome, like tells, but if you play online, the tells part is minimized.

Some people can't even grasp the concept of odds and probability, especially when playing with 52 different cards and they start thinking it's mostly "luck". What is "luck"? If I'm playing the basket game and draw a red ball, I can say that I got unlucky and go cry over it OR I can just keep playing and overcome "luck". I know that I can't prove that I will be able to overcome luck if I keep playing, but there is more chance that I will. In the practical world, playing the basket game over and over will most likely make you pretty rich...right? What do you think? Am I wrong? Is poker just "luck"? Am I justified in thinking of poker (ie. limit holdem) as the basket game?

 

[Galileo]

Poker is all bluff. So many games go to the person who can convince others that he has a good hand.
And you need to make choices in between. If someone raises, are you in or out?
Playing dice, roulette or blackjack is much easier, and counting probabilities can surely help you there.

 

[Peng]

Alright, let's say that someone is bluffing, or even has a better hand than you, and bets $1. You see how much is in the pot already and add that to the amount he bet and that's what you're getting paid off ($4 in the basket game). You count how many "white" cards are in the deck and how many "reds", count the chances of getting each, and see if you're getting paid enough to play the game or not.


PS. I'm not talking about NL holdem that you see on TV, because in that game, you can just go all in every hand and then the other players will never have good odds to call. I'm talking about limit holdem in which you can only bet a certain amount

 

[Physics_wiz]

Peng is my friend...I'm the friend he was trying to convince of coin flips not being 50 50 and he was logged in from my ip, so it auto logged me back in as Peng and I posted that last reply using Peng instead of Physics_wiz. Sorry about that.