Learning statisticts and probability

  • Context: Undergrad 
  • Thread starter Thread starter slug
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability
Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around a probability problem involving the likelihood of going out to dinner and seeing a movie on a Friday night. Participants explore different methods to calculate the probability of both events occurring, considering whether the events are independent or not.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning, Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant proposes an initial method of adding probabilities and averaging, leading to a result of 60%, but questions its validity.
  • The same participant later suggests multiplying the probabilities, arriving at 33.75%, and expresses uncertainty about the logic behind this approach.
  • Another participant points out that the independence of the events is crucial for determining the correct probability, stating that if they are independent, multiplication is appropriate.
  • A different perspective is introduced, suggesting a formula for calculating the probability of either event occurring, leading to a conclusion of 20% for both events happening together if they are not independent.
  • One participant confirms that the events are not independent in this scenario.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the correct method to calculate the probability, as they explore different assumptions regarding the independence of the events.

Contextual Notes

Participants express uncertainty regarding the assumptions about independence and the implications for the calculations, highlighting the need for clarity in definitions and conditions.

slug
Messages
6
Reaction score
0
I saw this problem in a book review, but it doesn't give an answer

If there is a 75% chance I will go out and eat dinner at a restaurant on Friday night and there is 45% chance I will go see a movie on friday night
then what is the probability that I see a movie and eat dinner at a restaurant?

At first my stupid intuition told me to just add 75 and 45 and divide by 200
which would be 120/200 = .6 = 60% (.75+.45)/2

But then I realized that the combined chances had to be less than 45%.
So i just multiplied 45*0.75 = 33.75% or 75*.45 = 33.75%
33.75 seems correct to me although the logic is weird
is this the right answer and is there another way of finding the solution

also are there any good books you could recommend for learning statisticts and probability
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Depends if you consider them to be independent events or not, otherwise knowing the probability of A and the probability of B doesn't tell you anything about the probability of A and B occurring.

If they are independent then, yes, you just multiply them together.
 
Could we also understand : I go to the restaurant or to the movie with certainty (I cannot choose neither of them) :

p(movie or dinner)=1=p(movie)+p(diner)-p(movie and diner)

Implying : p(movie and diner)=.75+.45-1=.2=20% ??
 
Yes, that's fine. The events are not independent in that case.
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
1K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
3K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
3K
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
3K
Replies
9
Views
3K
  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
2K
  • · Replies 29 ·
Replies
29
Views
8K
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
2K
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
6K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K