Will the US reintroduce the draft?

[Art]

US will 'have to face' military draft dilemma: senator
Washington | June 12
AFP - The United States will "have to face" a painful dilemma on restoring the military draft as rising casualties result in persistent shortfalls in US Army recruitment, a top US senator warned.

Joseph Biden, the top Democrat of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, made the prediction after new data released by the Pentagon showed the US Army failing to meet its recruitment targets for four straight months

Ten-Hut!
The Army's Bungling Recruitment
Don Edwards | June 12
WaPo - Nearly every day, anywhere from one to several U.S. soldiers or Marines die in Iraq, and even more are wounded. The news doesn't always make the front pages anymore, but the casualty rate has apparently registered deeply in the consciousness of young Americans and their families. The result is a dangerous decline in new enlistments that is depleting U.S. military resources and weakening our capacity to face additional conflicts or threats from abroad.

Now, the Army's latest desperate attempt to gain recruits is a shortened, 15-month enlistment policy. A 15-month enlistment means that soldiers will receive only basic and advanced individual training, but none of the team and unit training our premier soldiers traditionally receive. These recruits will be shipped off to war after only five months of training, deployed to units in combat where they know no one. These inexperienced soldiers will be at an enormous disadvantage and the casualties among them will be bound to reflect that disadvantage

After Lowering Goal, Army Falls Short on May Recruits
Eric Schmitt | Washington | June 8
NYT - Even after reducing its recruiting target for May, the Army missed it by about 25 percent, Army officials said on Tuesday. The shortfall would have been even bigger had the Army stuck to its original goal for the month.

What are people's opinion on the reintroduction of the draft? Is it likely to happen? Will you support it if it does?

 

[klusener]

If someone gave me 75,583 dollars everytime someone asked this question, I would be 680,247 dollars richer.

 

[1123581321]

i would not oppose a draft, but i don't think that it will come to that. if we find the need to attack North Korea/Iran/Syria and the like, then that may become needed.

fibonacci

 

[FredGarvin]

Personally I think there are too many people in charge that remember what it was like in Viet Nam in dealing with draftees. The superiority of an all volunteer force is pretty obvious. I would think they would be very reluctant to institute a draft simply because it would have to go back to the mix of professional soldiers mixing with draftees. It was not a harmonious mix.

It would take a monumentous world event for me to support another draft.

 

[Pengwuino]

Biden is a moron, or well, he's a democrat. Hes just trying to bring out more fear-mongering tactics to get people to fall for the idea that there is going to be a draft. You put that out in the media and you'll get all sorts of people making... well, threads like this. there's no factual evidence to support a serious look at a draft.

 

[loseyourname]

The only way a draft will be instituted without popular revolt is if the US is invaded. It'll be difficult to get past the navy to do that.

 

[Pengwuino]

Hey that's a good idea. Let's tell the navy to get off their butts and go fight in iraq ;)

 

[russ_watters]

What are people's opinion on the reintroduction of the draft? Is it likely to happen? Will you support it if it does?

There is no reasonable chance of a draft happening in my lifetime (I'm 29). This issue was brought up a lot last year by the Democrat's for the purpose of turning public opinion against the war in order to get Democrats elected. It would appear Biden still thinks he can get some more mileage out of the issue...

Hey that's a good idea. Let's tell the navy to get off their butts and go fight in iraq ;)

Ahem, while the Navy (with the exception of the Marine Corps, a branch of the Navy, and Navy corpsmen serving with the Marine Corps) suffers virtually no casualties, the Navy does a significant fraction of the work.

 

[Pengwuino]

Quiet you! we'll replace all the naval men with robots! :D lol

 

[ray b]

The only way a draft will be instituted without popular revolt is if the US is invaded. It'll be difficult to get past the navy to do that.

I am unaware of any naval opperations on the Reo Grand
and very aware of a continued invadesion across that and other borders
and judging by the local landings in south Fla the navy/cousties/ins is getting less then 1/2
of the attemped crossers

just wait intill BuSh2 trys to invade N K or Iran

 

[Pengwuino]

I don't think he was tlaking about illegal aliens..

 

[Rev Prez]

What are people's opinion on the reintroduction of the draft? Is it likely to happen? Will you support it if it does?

It will not happen. The only cache of political support for American conscription comes from left-leaning circles where the predominant concern is one of equity. The data is compelling even at a first order analysis, the American fighting force is more mobile, more lethal, better protected, and enjoys greater reach at a quarter of its last conscription-era size. Consequently, personnel base outlays amount to about a quarter of the entire defense budget--the single largest line item for a fighting force with only about 1 million men and women. That means an extra division of fighting strength will run you an extra $10 billion a year just for the manpower.

Rev Prez

 

[quetzalcoatl9]

The only way that a draft would be re-instated anytime soon in the US, would be in the event of war with China, a situation that many experts now see as inevitable:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/lind/lind65.html

 

[Art]

The only way that a draft would be re-instated anytime soon in the US, would be in the event of war with China, a situation that many experts now see as inevitable:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/lind/lind65.html

Which is why the US is currently cosying up to Asian countries. The plan being I presume to keep any war with China confined to the Asian continent.

 

[Rev Prez]

The only way that a draft would be re-instated anytime soon in the US, would be in the event of war with China, a situation that many experts now see as inevitable:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/lind/lind65.html

1) Lew Rockwell is no expert. Neither is William Lind.

2) There is no discernable strategic objective in a war against China that would necessitate meeting the PLA--fully mobilized and assembled--in battle on the mainland.

Rev Prez

 

[quetzalcoatl9]

1) Lew Rockwell is no expert. Neither is William Lind.

No, but he discussed the musings of experts in that writeup, I considered it a good review (especially since he is particularly hard on Bush, so I'm sure that he would have some fans on this forum). I happen to agree with his conclusions too.

2) There is no discernable strategic objective in a war against China that would necessitate meeting the PLA--fully mobilized and assembled--in battle on the mainland.

I do not necessarily agree with this.

If the unfortunate situation was all-out war with China, there is a chance that a stalemate would not be achieved, and Beijing would become a target to force a peace. I could also forsee limited strikes in key areas against their mainland, as the Japanese had done.

It is hard to know for sure when we are not military planners, other than the arm-chair kind

 

[quetzalcoatl9]

Which is why the US is currently cosying up to Asian countries. The plan being I presume to keep any war with China confined to the Asian continent.

It would seem that way. The issue is now being raised where Japan wants a seat on the UNSC.

 

[Rev Prez]

No, but he discussed the musings of experts in that writeup...

Expert. One. And a guy he's arguing against. And trust me on this, Robert Kaplan is not a favorite amongst these people here.

I considered it a good review (especially since he is particularly hard on Bush, so I'm sure that he would have some fans on this forum). I happen to agree with his conclusions too.

His conclusions aren't conclusions at all. They're based on a very silly analogy to a common criticism of Lehman's Maritime Strategy--namely that Backfires armed with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles could hunt down and prevent a NATO carrier offensive against Soviet SSBN bases around the Kola. Of course, the Soviets had it easier since the proposal involved maneuvering carrier strike groups through narrow passages of water and within Moscow's coastal, EM and satellite field of vision. The solution was simple; send up SSNs with Tomahawks. What Lind proposes would require the Chinese to find a carrier group with a weapon that is destructive over at most 400 square miles in millions of square miles of ocean; the Reds have to buy their satellite intelligence from the French.

I do not necessarily agree with this.

If the unfortunate situation was all-out war with China, there is a chance that a stalemate would not be achieved, and Beijing would become a target to force a peace.

There is no chance of a stalemate happening in any sphere of conflict that the US and Chinese may engage in. The US has no strategic objective on the mainland that requires an airland force to accomplish, and this Beijing idea of yours is just crazy.

I could also forsee limited strikes in key areas against their mainland, as the Japanese had done.

The Japanese engaged in full effort to conquer the mainland. Exactly what the hell do you think American interests in China are?

It is hard to know for sure when we are not military planners...

No, it's really easy to know for sure. It's easy even for security studies undergraduates.

Rev Prez

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

I'll have to go with Rev Prez on the idea of a conflict with China. It would be insane. The worst that I think might happen would be a new Cold War type scenario. WE have no interest in attacking them at home and I agree with RP that it would be absolutely insane to even attempt such an endevour lest we blow their whole country sky high first, and that in and of itself would be insane.

On the OP I'd have to say that a draft does not seem likely. All hell would break loose.

 

[Smurf]

I have yet to hear any convincing argument that war with china is "inevitable" and find that laughable, let alone that it rise to to total war that will require any activity on mainland china at all. Neither of you are going to go over the pacific to each other's continent to fight each other. That's just silly.

As for the draft. No one in cabinet wants it, no one out of cabinet wants it. It's just some democrat trying to lower support for Bush.

 

[Art]

The Japanese engaged in full effort to conquer the mainland. Exactly what the hell do you think American interests in China are?
Rev Prez

Taiwan...

 

[russ_watters]

Taiwan...

While China could concievably send half a billion people walking across each others bodies in the strait of Taiwan to get there, realistically, the Navy could easily handle a conventional invasion attempt by China. There'd be no need for the US to invade mainland China.

 

[Art]

While China could concievably send half a billion people walking across each others bodies in the strait of Taiwan to get there, realistically, the Navy could easily handle a conventional invasion attempt by China. There'd be no need for the US to invade mainland China.

The question was what are America's interests in China and the answer I supplied is Taiwan.
That said if the situation flared up again as it did in 1996 and China did attack Taiwan and America intervened IMO it could escalate exponentially very quickly. From what we see of China it seems they interfere very little outside their own borders but equally go ballistic if they believe others are interfering in their domestic affairs.

 

[Rev Prez]

...I agree with RP that it would be absolutely insane to even attempt such an endevour lest we blow their whole country sky high first, and that in and of itself would be insane.

I didn't say it is insanity to launch an airland offensive on the mainland. I said that there was no reason to do so...ever. Whether the US can take China in a stand up fight on their own soil is another question entirely.

Rev Prez

 

[Rev Prez]

The question was what are America's interests in China and the answer I supplied is Taiwan.

The question was prefaced by a point regarding Japan's reasons for invading the mainland.

That said if the situation flared up again as it did in 1996 and China did attack Taiwan and America intervened IMO it could escalate exponentially very quickly. From what we see of China it seems they interfere very little outside their own borders but equally go ballistic if they believe others are interfering in their domestic affairs.

And tell us, Art. What did you "see of China" in 1996?

Rev Prez

 

[Art]

And tell us, Art. What did you "see of China" in 1996?

Rev Prez

China's threatening posturing achieved this;

An important outcome was the new balance struck between China and the US. A new Sino-US compact was reached whereby the Clinton Administration reaffirmed its commitment to one China, including no US support for Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations, while Beijing reaffirmed Jiang Zemin's proposal, which, whilst not renouncing the use of force, nonetheless opts for gradual peaceful reunification.

 

[Nicool005]

I doubt the draft will be reintroduced. If it is reintroduced, I would not support it mainly for two reasons. 1) Because I believe that military service is a good and honorable thing, but it should be voluntary. 2) Because President Bush said it would not be reintroduced before he was elected this November after some people grew nervous about the possibility of it being reintroduced, and I would be really ticked off if that was a lie.

 

[pattylou]

Last interview I heard on this, with a high-up dude in the military, is that of course there will be no draft. He laid out some excellent reasons why politicians on both sides bring up the draft - and it has nothing to do with ... the draft.

If I could remember the reasoning...

But you asked for opinions - and mine is it won't happen.

What *is* happening is that standards are being lowered for foreigners to become citizens - if they sign on to military service. Also, in at least one court case (probably more) of drug possession, the defndant was given the option of serving time in jail, or in the military. And packages are being beefed up, and the No Child Left Behind act has a a clause that gives the military automatic access to our children's personal information. Schools need to "opt out" of this - the default is that the military is granted the information in the NCLB act.

-Patty

 

[Art]

On a lighter note here is a draft registration form.
http://www.draftregistration.us/

 

[pattylou]

That's a riot.

Did you follow the links? I particularly like the "Peace is for pus*ies" T shirt.