Chance of a terrorist A-bomb detonating in a major city

[Loren Booda]

What do you believe is the chance of a terrorist atomic bomb exploding in a Western metropolis, or even on a battlefield like Iraq's?

 

[Astronuc]

Sure it's possible, but depends on a critical factor - access to a pit of Pu-239 (~5-8 kg) and appropriate triggering device.

A western metropolis is a more likely target, than the Iraqi battlefield.

 

[Skyhunter]

I think the possibility is remote, unless terrorists can get a nuke from an advanced nuclear power. It is my understanding that a nuclear device is very large and bulky. It would need to be an advanced device in order to be small enough to smuggle.

A western metropolis would be a much likelier target than the Iraqi battlefield.

It is far more likely, in my opinion, that the current administration will use battlefield nukes against Iran.

 

[Smurf]

It's remote enough it's not worth considering.

 

[vanesch]

It's remote enough it's not worth considering.

We should maybe considering how many physicists would be willing to work on a nuke for terrorists, against a lot of $$$ ?

 

[Townsend]

I think the possibility is remote, unless terrorists can get a nuke from an advanced nuclear power. It is my understanding that a nuclear device is very large and bulky. It would need to be an advanced device in order to be small enough to smuggle.

A western metropolis would be a much likelier target than the Iraqi battlefield.

It is far more likely, in my opinion, that the current administration will use battlefield nukes against Iran.

I have heard speculation that both the US and Russia developed suitcase bombs that could be used as tactical nukes if the need were to ever arise.

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/News/DoSuitcaseNukesExist.html

 

[Townsend]

We should maybe considering how many physicists would be willing to work on a nuke for terrorists, against a lot of $$$ ?

I agree, I think perhaps we should...

 

[stoned]

It is far more likely, in my opinion, that the current administration will use battlefield nukes against Iran.

Exactly!, or maybe White house looking for pretext for attack on Iran will nuke US city and blame it on evil Iran.

 

[Burnsys]

Exactly!, or maybe White house looking for pretext for attack on Iran will nuke US city and blame it on evil Iran.

I think that is the most posible scenario...

 

[vanesch]

I think that is the most posible scenario...

Now, if they would pick Washington...and forget to tell the boss...

 

[Burnsys]

Now, if they would pick Washington...and forget to tell the boss...

Well. you know, there isn't a very good comunication between the various agencies.

 

[BobG]

What do you believe is the chance of a terrorist atomic bomb exploding in a Western metropolis, or even on a battlefield like Iraq's?

Chance of an atomic bomb? Virtually none.

Chance of a bomb that will spread radioactive material exploding in a Western metropolis? Very good.

The actual effect of a 'dirty' bomb won't be very big, since a conventional bomb can't spread the radioactive material very effectively, but it will cause a huge reaction of terror, especially in the city where it occurred. If it's detonated in a location where even a local spread of radioactive material can affect a huge number of people, it will have an even bigger emotional impact.

 

[edward]

Chance of an atomic bomb? Virtually none.

If it's detonated in a location where even a local spread of radioactive material can affect a huge number of people, it will have an even bigger emotional impact.

I have a concern for the Seaports on the west coast. They unload thousands of large containers of imported goods from Asia in a single day. Two dirty bombs one at the port of Los Angeles and one at Long Beach would be a disaster for us financially.

And I think that is what they want. Even Bin Laden said that they will bleed us financially. The war in Iraq is already doing a number on our finances.

 

[Manchot]

I think that there's a bigger chance that somebody in the military will accidentally hit the "red button."

 

[Pengwuino]

What do you believe is the chance of a terrorist atomic bomb exploding in a Western metropolis, or even on a battlefield like Iraq's?

From what I hear...

fission bomb: almost impossible
radiological "dirty bomb": highly likely

In a western city: highly likely
In Iraq: highly unlikely, too dangerous of a proposition to pull off.

 

[Pengwuino]

I think that is the most posible scenario...

Coming from someone who thought the WTC attacks were controlled demolitions, I am not surprised

Or was that the smoking dude...

 

[vanesch]

And I think that is what they want. Even Bin Laden said that they will bleed us financially. The war in Iraq is already doing a number on our finances.

Yes that is absolutely true, and with the current bozo in the white house, he's helping them a lot. So probably the best strategy, if I were OBL, would be to tickle Dubya just enough for him to engage in another war, like Iran. How, I don't know. He could send in a cardboard model of a bomb, with "BOOM" on it, may be ? And a note "the next one is the real one my friends the Iranians are making for me" ?

 

[Pengwuino]

Yes that is absolutely true, and with the current bozo in the white house, he's helping them a lot. So probably the best strategy, if I were OBL, would be to tickle Dubya just enough for him to engage in another war, like Iran. How, I don't know. He could send in a cardboard model of a bomb, with "BOOM" on it, may be ? And a note "the next one is the real one my friends the Iranians are making for me" ?

Maybe he'll say the French are making it for him... I mean that's what the French have historically done, arm nations/militant groups in the middle east against international sanctions. Maybe we'll finally do what the British have been telling us to do for so long.

 

[loseyourname]

I have a concern for the Seaports on the west coast. They unload thousands of large containers of imported goods from Asia in a single day. Two dirty bombs one at the port of Los Angeles and one at Long Beach would be a disaster for us financially.

I'm sure nobody remembers at this point, but I told a story a while back about how some friends and I drove a racing boat, more than large enough to contain a bomb, right into the Port of Long Beach. We were only looking around for run, but it was surprising how easy it was. We only saw one Harbor Police boat, that finally started coming toward us after about fifteen minutes, but it was way too slow to catch us when we took off.

Then again, we were coming from elsewhere in Long Beach, so it's not like we entered through the jetty. The security out there might be somewhat tighter. I can only hope it is.

 

[vanesch]

Maybe he'll say the French are making it for him... I mean that's what the French have historically done, arm nations/militant groups in the middle east against international sanctions. Maybe we'll finally do what the British have been telling us to do for so long.

Well, given the fact that George believes just any imposter calling for a war (style Chalaby), after all, why not. The aim is that you go uselessly to war, and spend all you have on it (and even a bit more). If as a side effect, you also create a sense of menace to all those that could potentially turn into OBL fans, then that's even better (fear works on both sides). That's why France wouldn't be the ideal target: there's not so many potential OBL fans around here. The UK is already slightly better of course . But the real attraction is a country with a strong Islamic population. If he could get you to war with Iran, Syria, Lybia, Turkey, Pakistan and, cherry on top of the cake, Saoudi Arabia, that would be his dream. If in doing so, he can even create an international wave of indignation, so that the US looses its friends, all the better. You'd be broke, no friends left, and create a lot of sympathy for OBL. And all this for the price of a cardboard bomb and a few stamps :-)

 

[NewScientist]

There are a number of difficulties in creating and placing and finally detonating a nuclear bomb. (I ignore the difference between a dirty bomb, and a nuclear bomb with detonator etc)

In creating the bomb there are these problems.
1) Acquiring enough (and the correct purity) of nuclear material
2) Preventing tracing of the nuclear material.
3) Finding physicists (+ perhaps electronics experts - to wire a non-defuseable bomb) who have the knowledge to make the bomb work.
4) Preventing the tracking of the physicists and any suspistion they have become 'rogue'.
5) To find a secure location to build the bomb in.
6) Finding the funds to fuel the operation.
7) Crossing borders with such material.
8) To not arouse suspicion in the way they work.

In placing the bomb there are these problems.
1) Moving the bomb to target country (if different)
2) Moving the bomb into target country (if different)
3) As it is unfeasible to transport the bomb as 1 unit - the bomb would be broken down int composite parts and so another job would be to rebuild it - this would require moving the technical members of the team - physicists and the like to the new country - an issue worth considering. also, as the bomb will be spread over multiple transports, it is more likely it may be discovered.
4) Finding the place where the bomb will cause the appropriate amount of damage. (I use appropriate as the goal of terrorists may be to solely show they are capable of such an act rather than actually committing mass murder.) If mass murder is the objective then placement is important to cause maximum fall out damage.
5) Not arousing the suspicion of intelligence agencies and the public - as a terrorist cell who has acess to nuclear material - you are probably known to the intelligence services and so are probably being watched - this will make the whole operation ni on impossible to carry out unless state sponsored. (States can hide the transport, procurement and placing of the bomb with more ease than a terrorist organization.)

In detonating a bomb :
1) There is a chance of failure
2) The chance of discovery by an intelligence agency.


Due to these factors it is hard to create such a bomb + then fulfil the mission objective. Studying the problems one will probably decide the profile for a nuclear bomb exploding in a metropolis is :

A dirty bomb (they are simpler to make), with a timer wired so it is non-defuseable, sponsored by a nuclear state 9declared or not) which perhaps has diplomatic relations with the target country. Also, the bombers will not be affiliated to any states or terrorist organizations which are known to the security forces of the world. The physicists will not be well known or have links to terrorist cells or rogue nations.

The bomb will more than likely be made or sponsored by North Korea or Iran or a similar state and detonated on US soil to create as many casualties and as maximum shock as possible - this means an attack in a major city - visible to many the world over. I would suspect Washington or New York.

-just my 2 cents

 

[The Smoking Man]

Just a thought but has anybody actually found the nukes that the Soviets lost during the collapse of the Union?

I've heard reports of as many as 200 and as low as 17.

North Korea is supposed to have maybe one or two.

That would leave ... oh, ... NYC, Seattle, LA, Austin, Columbus, Philadelphia, Detroit ...

You get the drift.

And remember, they all went missing before 9/11 so conditions on the west coast were ideal for dropping stuff off on the beaches.

Pravda Terrorism Questions & Answers http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/latimes.htm http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/thisweek/2002_3_7_nucw.html http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,37605,00.html so it must be true.

 

[gurkhawarhorse]

i heard (my brother said) that when USSR broke some nuclear power bombs were lost.
Nah... that's just a speculation by my brother . hey don't curse me if it is wrong.

 

[gurkhawarhorse]

Just a thought but has anybody actually found the nukes that the Soviets lost during the collapse of the Union?

I've heard reports of as many as 200 and as low as 17.

North Korea is supposed to have maybe one or two.

That would leave ... oh, ... NYC, Seattle, LA, Austin, Columbus, Philadelphia, Detroit ...

You get the drift.

And remember, they all went missing before 9/11 so conditions on the west coast were ideal for dropping stuff off on the beaches.

Pravda Terrorism Questions & Answers http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/latimes.htm http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/thisweek/2002_3_7_nucw.html http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,37605,00.html so it must be true.

why am i always late to make it look as if i copied it?

 

[The Smoking Man]

why am i always late to make it look as if i copied it?

Shhhh ... Don't tell them. Nobody will know we're brothers.

 

[stoned]

if terrist had any suitcase bombs they would have use them long time ago, real terrorist are our governments and I'm 10000000x more affraid of them .

 

[Skyhunter]

I have heard speculation that both the US and Russia developed suitcase bombs that could be used as tactical nukes if the need were to ever arise.

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/News/DoSuitcaseNukesExist.html

That is why I thought that it would need to come from an advanced nuclear power. I had heard of that, I think it was from you.

Thanks for posting the link

 

[edward]

Small nuclear devices are definitely out there.

Then came the bombshell. If that missile deal went through, asked the Lithuanians, was there interest in small nuclear devices? The undercover cops said they would be very interested. They nicknamed this new deal "Project 2" and agreed to put it off until the missile deal was concluded.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/russia/scenario/

The container held devices that use the radioactive element americium to probe oil wells. It had been imported from Russia by Halliburton Energy Services and was bound for Houston, but was shipped from Newark to Boston by mistake.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/ma...e_equipment_brings_rebuke_for_nuclear_agency/

There is a lot of radioactive material used in the oil industry.

 

[Dayle Record]

If a nuclear bomb devastated a US city, it would be an internal matter, a matter of treasonous activity aimed at terrorizing our nation for political gain. It would take a rogue fascist American general to accomplish something like that. Or else what would happen is that they way electronics work these days, someone will just hack a communications system somewhere, and one of our subs will let loose on us. The US government employs so many civilian contractors these days, they run some of the most sensitive situations. A civilian contractor, for instance, runs the FBI's computer systems. Many, many routine communications are being outsourced to foreign nations, and in my mind that creates a more, and more open network in general, and at some point there will be a conduit that makes a mess of things.

I think that the rash of airline crashes in South America is a possible indicator of future activities. I think that we depend on extremely accurate measurement, and take it for granted. There is a possibility that terrorist activity could happen as a matter of a few degrees, that results in a slow rise in overall error, that once perfected will result in perhaps some more horrific results.

I don't buy the term terrorism. I think that some people that we have been walking all over, for some time, are acting out against us. I think that some other people that have a lot to gain have profited enormously from the "war on terror". I see this as giant corporations and their doings, have put our nation at risk. If they had behaved properly to begin with, none of this would be happening.

Oh yes, and there is also the "idiot factor", that being Murphy's Law applied to nuclear disaster. Stupid things happen, really stupid things happen and that something stupider than Hiroshima or Nagasaki hasn't happened yet, is simply a miracle.

I was once in a rest stop, going west on the interstate heading into Nevada. A big red semi tractor with a large sleeper compartment stopped at the stop. There was no trailer on this vehicle. It was a cherry red rig, in great condition. The middle eastern guys just kept getting out of this thing to use the restroom. There had to be at least 12 guys stuffed into that vehicle. The were coming out in rotations of 2-4. I quit watching them because I was nervous to do so. If there were going to be a weapon in one of our cities, it would be driven right into the heart as easily as that, they would intercept a shipment somewhere, and make it happen. I think we have hurt a lot more people than we have helped with our policies, especially in more recent history. As hard as people work for the good, we still on the balance do a lot of harm.

The laws of physics are that balance will be achieved, by one means or another, and there is a physics of the personal accountability of nations. We have a very short term mentality in this nation, take now, take now, make bigger markets. Other nations do not forget, and practice a very long term planning, and remembrance strategy, I have never harmed anyone in my life, or discriminated, but my nation before I was born, committed acts that I may someday have to answer for, in the long term game.

 

[Skyhunter]

Nice post Dale. I concur.

I always thought it was quite naive to believe that people are willing to blow themselves up because they "hate our freedom".