Picking a Supreme Court Nominee: What's Bush Thinking?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the potential nomination of a Supreme Court justice by President Bush, exploring the political implications of various nominee types, including conservative and moderate candidates. Participants speculate on the rationale behind Bush's choice and the consequences of a filibuster on his presidency and the judicial appointment process.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that a conservative nominee may face a filibuster, while a moderate nominee could be criticized by conservative factions.
  • One participant proposes that Bush's rationale for a conservative nominee would be to fulfill his campaign promise to his supporters.
  • Another participant questions the implications of a filibuster on Bush's presidency and wonders if a similar situation has occurred in the past.
  • Concerns are raised about the president's ability to override a filibuster, with one participant noting that a 60-40 Senate vote is required to invoke cloture.
  • Some participants speculate that Bush may seek a nominee with minimal legal decisions to avoid controversy, referencing the successful nomination of Roberts as a precedent.
  • There is mention of the potential for temporary appointments during congressional recesses if a nominee is stalled, highlighting the uncertainty of the confirmation process.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express multiple competing views regarding the type of nominee Bush should select and the potential political ramifications of that choice. The discussion remains unresolved with no consensus on the best approach or the implications of a filibuster.

Contextual Notes

Participants note the complexities of the nomination process, including the potential for backroom deals and the impact of party dynamics on confirmation outcomes. The discussion reflects the uncertainty surrounding the political landscape and the judicial appointment process.

pattylou
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What next nomination for the Supreme Court would help provide bush with support?

I have heard tha a conservative nominee will be met with a filibuster and I have heard that a moderate nominee will be frowned upon by the right. Bush has to know that this is an important decision.

Who do you think he'll come up with, and his rationale for that?
 
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A conservative, with his rationale being that he said he would do so when he was campaigning and wants to keep his promise to the people that elected him.
 
pattylou said:
What next nomination for the Supreme Court would help provide bush with support?

I have heard tha a conservative nominee will be met with a filibuster and I have heard that a moderate nominee will be frowned upon by the right. Bush has to know that this is an important decision.

Who do you think he'll come up with, and his rationale for that?

What I want to know is, what happens if do to a filibuster Bush's presidency is over before the next nominee is confirmed? Has anything like that ever happened before?
 
Can't the president override the filibuster? I sure hope the judiciary committee doesn't decide to read names out of a phone book for the next three years. That won't just keep them from voting on the nomination. That'll keep them from doing anything.
 
loseyourname said:
Can't the president override the filibuster? I sure hope the judiciary committee doesn't decide to read names out of a phone book for the next three years. That won't just keep them from voting on the nomination. That'll keep them from doing anything.

The President can't. It takes a 60-40 vote of the Senate to override a filibuster (invoke cloture? is that the right term?) and right now Republicans don't have that large a margin. The Republican leadership comtemplated the idea of changing the rules to make it only require a majority vote. If you remember all the talk about the 'nuclear option' several months back when several federal judges were being held up, this is what they were talking about.
 
I guess I should also add my thoughts about the candidate. Unless Bush can find another 'Manchurian Candidate' nominee with outstanding credentials and almost zero legal decisions that he can be held to, I suspect he/she will be somewhat moderate. Since both sides knew another vote was coming up soon, there may have been quite a few backroom deals made to ensure the Roberts vote passed without difficulty.
 
pattylou said:
What next nomination for the Supreme Court would help provide bush with support?

I have heard tha a conservative nominee will be met with a filibuster and I have heard that a moderate nominee will be frowned upon by the right. Bush has to know that this is an important decision.

Who do you think he'll come up with, and his rationale for that?
Let's remember that three very right-wing nominations were approved as a result of the Gang of 14 negotiations. And in large part responsible for Roberts nomination, which went fairly smoothly, also due to lack of record and because he represents a "wash." Nonetheless, Roberts created enough concern that if Bush chooses a candidate that is at all questionable, it will create divisiveness. If Bush is his usual self and plays to his base, it will be to his detriment.
 
Townsend said:
What I want to know is, what happens if do to a filibuster Bush's presidency is over before the next nominee is confirmed? Has anything like that ever happened before?
If the nomination is met by a filibuster, the President can appoint a justice, temporarily, during a recess of Congress (this wasn't the intent of recession appointments, but it is a side effect - the intent was to allow emergency appointments that couldn't wait until Congress reconvened). The appointment is good until the current session of Congress expires (end of 2006).

John Bolton's is currently a temporary appointment to the UN Ambassador post.

If Congress still refuses to confirm a Supreme Court nominee (or a UN Ambassador), the President could make another temporary appointment to cover 2007 to the end of 2008. Eventually, you would hope someone would be officially approved as Supreme Court justice, but, considering the heated relations between Congressional Democrats and Republicans, you just never know. If you went through two Congressional sessions without a Supreme Court justice approved and a Democrat won the 2008 Presidential election, you could go over a decade without nine approved Supreme Court members. (This wouldn't be a good thing - by 2016 you could have a majority of Supreme Court members being temporary appointees that would surely be replaced after next election).
 

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