Scale Invariance in Global Terrorism

In summary, Clauset and Young's new paper applies modern statistics to a terrorist database and finds that extreme cases, like 9/11, are not outliers but follow a scale-free power distribution. They predict another strike with similar casualties within 7 years. The authors also suggest that the increase in the ability to kill people may be a factor in this behavior. The conversation then shifts to possible solutions, including promoting prosperity and democracy, using technology to combat WMDs, and implementing strict state control of science and technology. However, it is noted that even with state control, new technologies will continue to make it easier to produce WMDs.
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Clauset and Young, in their new paper http://www.arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0502/0502014.pdf , apply standard modern statistics to a database of terrorist strikes ordered by the number of people killed or injured. They find that extreme cases, such as 9/11, are not outliers, but find their place within a scale free power distribution with exponent near 2 (may actually be nearer 1.8). From this they conclude another strike with as many casualties or more than 9/11 can be expected within the next 7 years.

They remark that the ability to kill people has been steadily increasing, which may underly this scale free behavior. I note that scale free or "critical" behavior in many systems is associated with the approach to a change of state.
 
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Yes, advancing technology makes WMDs easies to manufacture. More people mean more potential terrorists and conflicts. Global news and democracy means that the potential reward has increased.

I see some possible solutions:
1. Greater prosperity and more democracy. Democracies never or almost never attack each other. Poverty is one the factors that make people into fanatics. Look for example at the great depression that may have been critical in causing fascist dictatorships in Germany and Japan.

2. Fight technology with technology. Biotechnology might allow very rapid detection of biological weapons and production of antidotes.

3. A worldwide intrusive state. If the above fail and there are great catastrophes due to terrorism or wars, then many might see strict control of science worldwide as inevitable. Research, laboratories, education and knowledge in biotechnology and nuclear physics might become a strictly regulated worldwide state monopoly.
 
  • #3
Aquamarine said:
Research, laboratories, education and knowledge in biotechnology and nuclear physics might become a strictly regulated worldwide state monopoly.
That might not help much. One of the greatest terrorist threats facing advanced nations today comes in the form of natural gas. A single liquified natural gas tanker would make a pretty big explosion.
http://www.google.com/search?q=terrorist+%22natural+gas%22+tanker
 
  • #4
hitssquad said:
That might not help much. One of the greatest terrorist threats facing advanced nations today comes in the form of natural gas. A single liquified natural gas tanker would make a pretty big explosion.
http://www.google.com/search?q=terrorist+%22natural+gas%22+tanker
Well, then science has to find a better way to transport the natural gas. Or avoid using it.

But I agree that new technology will constantly make it easier to produce WMDs. So if 3 is chosen, this means that an ever increasing part of science and technology will be censored and monopolized by the state.
 

1. What is scale invariance?

Scale invariance is a concept in which the properties of an object or phenomenon remain the same regardless of changes in scale or size. In terms of global terrorism, this means that certain patterns and characteristics of terrorist attacks remain consistent regardless of the size or scope of the attack.

2. How is scale invariance relevant to global terrorism?

Scale invariance is relevant to global terrorism because it allows for a better understanding and prediction of terrorist attacks. By identifying consistent patterns and characteristics, we can develop more effective strategies for prevention and response.

3. What are some examples of scale invariance in global terrorism?

Some examples of scale invariance in global terrorism include the use of similar tactics and methods in different attacks, the presence of certain ideological beliefs across different terrorist groups, and the recurrence of certain targets or locations in terrorist attacks.

4. How does scale invariance impact counterterrorism efforts?

Scale invariance can impact counterterrorism efforts by highlighting the need for a comprehensive and adaptable approach. Since terrorist attacks can occur at different scales and with varying levels of severity, it is important for counterterrorism strategies to be flexible and able to address a range of scenarios.

5. What are some challenges in studying scale invariance in global terrorism?

One of the main challenges in studying scale invariance in global terrorism is the lack of reliable and consistent data. Since terrorist attacks can occur in different parts of the world and are often underreported, it can be difficult to gather comprehensive and accurate data for analysis. Additionally, the complex and constantly evolving nature of global terrorism makes it challenging to identify and analyze consistent patterns and characteristics.

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