Scale Invariance in Global Terrorism

Clauset and Young's recent paper analyzes a database of terrorist attacks, revealing that extreme incidents like 9/11 fit into a scale-free power distribution with an exponent around 2, suggesting that similar attacks could occur within the next seven years. They highlight that advancements in technology and increasing global population contribute to the rising lethality of attacks. The discussion proposes several potential solutions to mitigate future threats, including promoting prosperity and democracy, leveraging biotechnology for rapid detection of biological weapons, and the possibility of a globally regulated state controlling scientific research in sensitive areas. However, concerns are raised about the effectiveness of such measures, especially in light of threats like liquefied natural gas transport, which could lead to significant explosions. The conversation emphasizes the ongoing challenge of balancing technological advancement with security and regulation.