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abba02
abba02 is offline
#2
Apr23-08, 02:20 PM
P: 11
The attempt at a solution:

V1,V2 AND V3 ARE IN SERIES AND SS1 ARE IN PARALLEL TO V4 AND V5

(PV1 OR PV2 OR PV3) AND PV4 AND PV5

FT (t) = 1 − exp[−_λit] where i=1,2,3,4,5

If _λ1 = λ_2 = _λ3 = 0.05; λ_4 = 0.267; λ_5 = 0.189 (all in years−1),

For PSS FT (t) =1- exp [-λ1+λ2+λ3*3] where t=3 = .36237

For PV4, FT (t) =1- exp [-λ4*3]=.55112

For PV5,FT (t) =1- exp [-λ5*3]= .43278

Therefore the probability of loss of flow from the manifold at time 3 years is

PSS1 AND PV4 AND PV5= .36237*.55112*.43278= .08643