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Simfish
#4
May14-11, 05:20 PM
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P: 828
How reliable are BLS job projections?

Yes, but that's just one example. What you seem to be implying is that BLS projections aren't reliable in a large number of cases. But on the other hand, there are cases when BLS projections are more reliable, and I'd like to see what others have to say on the issue (it's not just a "yes"/"no" question - people often give complex replies to questions that seem like "yes"/"no" questions). For example, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...7346-243a.html just cited BLS projections for its article, although I am somewhat skeptical (I am not entirely skeptical however, and can handle uncertainties in these projections).

Besides, my *preliminary* conclusion was that they weren't reliable before tech bursts. I did not make the conclusion with 100% certainty, however. I do like to calibrate my posterior probability function based on what other people have to say. Because I do respect the fact that my prior probability functions may be incorrect on some counts.