??? You mean that, what, the average linear consumption trend for the last several decades is up? Sure, but I hope we agree that recently this is not the case, that the recent consumption figures are
US Consumption, 4 wk average, all oil, mbpd
Feb 2007 21.8 (all time high US consumption)
Feb 2008 20.6
Feb 2009 19.5
Feb 2010 19.3
Feb 2011 19.4
Feb 2012 18.1
i.e. off 17%, otherwise I'm wasting my time here against some kind of dogmatic belief unchangeable by data.
Perhaps, but in the future we don't know if SAGD will be used over (say) VAPEX
that does not require steam. With very cheap natural gas to make steam no doubt SAGD will continue for awhile, but there's no rule mandating that will be the case.
I respect long term trends. The flip side of long term trends is that reversals never seen before have significance. That's why I see a six
year reversal 25% off the peak as significant.
US net imports all oil mbpd
2011 8.52 (12 month rolling average)
<shrug>I don't know that commercial interests are vying for the vast tracks of barren
land in the US, at least they have not so far. Certainly there are groups that want these areas left barren and pristine.