Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP

jlduh

The french IRSN just released a new report concerning the estimated contamination around DAICHI, i extract this map for the Cs contamination based on SPEEDI/MEXT estimations. The complete report is here (french): http://www.irsn.fr/FR/Actualites_pre...a_16052011.pdf

Giordano

And what is the total soil contamination of Cs?

zapperzero

http://jciv.iidj.net/map/

EDIT: it's a contamination map with some real time values.

AntonL

and few will not budge for various reasons.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110523005018.htm

zapperzero

http://www.japantoday.com/category/n...-nuclear-plant

jlduh

Really, this kind of decisions leads to what this industry is always defending itself from: doubt, suspicion, lack of transparence.

If i was Japanese, i woud be very upset by this (and I'm already even if I'm not japanese). Are the IAEA people living under the emissions like japanese people do? I don't think so...

Do they have their children exposed to whatever level and especially a level of 20 mSV/year which many consider as inadequate and possibly criminal for very youngs? I don't think so...

Here in France in 1986, the french "watchdog" (SCPRI and the infamous Pr Pellerin) was the only one who was allowed to release data on the Tchernobyl contamination. The meteorologist were calling him personnally to know what to say at TV. This remembers in a sense that kind of situation. Why cannot the Japan Meteorological Agency continue by itself to do it if people are consulting these projections (and I'm sure they are!)? Aren't they independent from any nuclear organisation, and especially IAEA?

NUCENG

The piece of information missing is the time to reach the dose on those contours pf 5, 10, and 20 mSv. In the report these are listed as annual doses for a person at that location for a year.

NUCENG

Did you catch the last sentence? "Projected concentration data did not reflect reality." If they weren't accurate what is the use of continuing to put out meaningless reports?

jlduh

Well, the question is "what is current reality", and how, and by whom, was it assessed that the projections weren't fitting the reality? Any data to base this statement?

If this is by IAEA only, then i (and many others) "may" have a doubt for example...

But in a sense I agree with you: if simulation doesn't fit reality, then we should quit using simulations and stick to reality.

And this applies also for stuff like... tsunami and seismic risks assessment for example? As they were not sticking to reality, will the IAEA ask nuclear industry to quit using them and communicating on them, with the straightforward explanation: "We asked this because they were not reflecting reality"?

It's always kind of funny to see that simulations have sometimes a strange destiny: either they don't fit the reality in a way that is going in the "good direction" (for some interests), and then we keep using them and justifying decisions on these, or they don't fit reality and some are unhappy with this and then they ask for quitting using them. As an engineer, i saw this happening many times, as a matter of fact. This is what is great with simulations: it's easier to control than reality, at the simulation level (hypothesis and inputs) or at the communication level...

Not from a pure scientific standpoint of course. But pure science in areas with political, strategical and financial interests are scarce. Epistemology and history of sciences are full of examples of this. And sorry to say this, but even if there are true nuclear physicists working for exemple on some fundamental subjects, we are here talking about a TECHNOLOGY (which makes use of sciences) run by private companies to make business. IAEA is also part of this scheme (watchdog of this technology implementation). We are far from pure science in my mind, and engineers and even many experts are far from being pure scientific guys (hey they have bosses who are not that scientific!)

NOTE: bu the way you are right, the map above gives ANNUAL doses estimates (they missed the word on the map!)

NUCENG

TEPCO and the Japanese are still performing sampling and monitoring contamination levels in the environment. I would hope that is current reality. Of course that depends on whether you believe anything they report. Those reports were available to IAEA to compare to the Japan Meteorological Agency predictions. IAEA apparently didn't find them useful so they won't ask for the reports. If the Japanese found the results useful they could keep generating reports. IAEA did not tell them to stop producing reports. They just aren't going to ask for any more. If you see benefit in the exercise your anger is misdirected at IAEA.

Atmospheric dispersion and plume predictions are evaluations based on meteorological inputs and past atmospheric statistics. The old example of chaos theory says that a butterfly flaps its wings in China and as a result a hurricane hits Miami. Over time inputs and uncertainties randomize until the data uncertainties are larger than the quantity you are trying to measure. They can give you a reasonable basis to prioritize emergency protective actions (evacuation, shelter in place, agricultural limitations, etc.) in the short run, but field measurements are better in the longer timeframe.

You won't get an argument from me on tsunami risks. Fukushima clearly blew that one. Had they done any kind of study when they received reports of the two major tsunamis in the last 2200 years, we might not be here today.

Neither will I argue that bad simulations or bad engineering or bad science is actually good. I believe good science and good engineering can help produce good simulations that produce realistic results. If those results mean we need to correct something or scrap a design, that is what you deal with. Tweaking the simulation to get results you want like what happened at Maine Yankee is dishonest, unethical, unprofessional, and illegal (i.e., BAD)!

Dmytry

seem to be matching the maps taken by US radiation monitoring plane quite well...

tsutsuji

This is not a surprise as the report says it is compiled from the MEXT-DOE maps.

zapperzero

Cross-posted, sorry. The details of the Areva water purification process and its performance are kept secret.

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/05/t...-to-treat.html

jlduh

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/27_19.html

zapperzero

So, which is it? 1 is safe, 20 not so much? Well then, seems some heads should roll for suggesting 20. 20 is ok? Well then, why change?

clancy688

Have you seen this video?

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/05/r...edly-born.html

Probably a hoax? "Our faces and throats felt burned, and we thought we're going to die." sounds fishy to me.

zapperzero

Yea I don't like it either. It's easily put to the test with a whole-body count, so no problem.