Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP


by jlduh
Tags: consequences, contamination, earthquake, fukushima, japan, nuclear
tsutsuji
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#307
Sep19-11, 11:16 AM
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Quote Quote by tsutsuji View Post
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1rHgl8mq2s (NHK) & http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-...130_chizu.html The Osaka University research centre for nuclear physics will release on 19 September on its internet homepage a map displaying radiation estimates in 5 years' time in the Fukushima area. The source data are those measured by the ministry of education and science. [At present only a bar graph radiation display with some undated data (the last available ones ?) is available on the following google earth application: http://www.rcnp.osaka-u.ac.jp/dojo/GE_dose.php ]
Here is the link to the map with the 5 year span radiation estimates : http://www.rcnp.osaka-u.ac.jp/dojo/GE_time.php
tsutsuji
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#308
Sep20-11, 06:05 AM
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http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-...40_keikai.html In his address to the IAEA general conference in Vienna on 19 September, Goshi Hosono said that the completion of step 2 (cold shutdown) does not necessarily mean that the restricted zones will be changed or shrunk. Reducing radiations to such levels that do not affect health will take time and an effective method of disposal of the waste generated by the decontamination work has not been found yet. Meeting with director general Amano, US and French representatives, Goshi Hosono obtained their cooperation such as the sending of experts to Japan. Whether decontamination work and waste treatment can be accelerated seems to be a challenge.
zapperzero
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#309
Sep21-11, 12:28 AM
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Quote Quote by tsutsuji View Post
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-...40_keikai.html In his address to the IAEA general conference in Vienna on 19 September, Goshi Hosono said that the completion of step 2 (cold shutdown) does not necessarily mean that the restricted zones will be changed or shrunk. Reducing radiations to such levels that do not affect health will take time and an effective method of disposal of the waste generated by the decontamination work has not been found yet. Meeting with director general Amano, US and French representatives, Goshi Hosono obtained their cooperation such as the sending of experts to Japan. Whether decontamination work and waste treatment can be accelerated seems to be a challenge.
Let's send a letter of thanks to Capitain Obvious here.
zapperzero
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#310
Sep21-11, 03:42 AM
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http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_i...316578041P.pdf
According to JAIF which quotes NHK which quotes TEPCO and/or the J-gov
the amount of radioactive substances released from the plant was about
200-million becquerels per hour in the first half of September. They say that's
about one-four millionths of the level of the initial stages of the accident in
March.
So now we have another number to plug into those SPEEDI simulations. The number is 8*10E+14 Bq/h, unless I misplaced some zeroes along the way.
zapperzero
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#311
Sep21-11, 03:58 AM
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http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/
discusses plumes in a rather exhaustive manner.
tsutsuji
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#312
Sep22-11, 04:40 AM
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http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-...440_youso.html The ministry of education and science releases a map of Iodine pollution. Iodine 131 has an 8 day long half life. Of the 2200 measurement points, only 400 provided relevant data. The shape of the polluted area is the same as that of Cesium 137. The Iodine 131/Cesium 137 ratio is higher in the North-West area than in the South area.

Quote Quote by zapperzero View Post
http://where-are-the-clouds.blogspot.com/
discusses plumes in a rather exhaustive manner.
Isn't his theory written on 31 March that "the insertion of sea water in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4 on March 21st, seems consistent with the dose rate increase in Ibakari several hours later (please note that I am not saying it is the only reason, just that it seems consistent based on the incomplete data we have so far)" a bit strange? Should not the radiation decrease rather than increase after they poured water? It is a bit disappointing that this blog was discontinued instead of being updated. I wish we could know if the author still believes in his theory.
zapperzero
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#313
Sep22-11, 05:10 AM
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Quote Quote by tsutsuji View Post
Isn't his theory written on 31 March that "the insertion of sea water in the spent fuel pool of reactor 4 on March 21st, seems consistent with the dose rate increase in Ibakari several hours later (please note that I am not saying it is the only reason, just that it seems consistent based on the incomplete data we have so far)" a bit strange? Should not the radiation decrease rather than increase after they poured water?
Not necessarily. Lots of radioactive steam may have been produced.
Jim Lagerfeld
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#314
Sep22-11, 05:28 AM
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Here's an interesting one from up north:

Early results are in from the ongoing monitoring of citizens in Minami Soma on the edge of the exclusion zone. It appears citizens' internal exposure increased much more rapidly during the period April 3-June 4 than it did March 20-May 19:

http://www.asahi.com/national/jiji/JJT201109200045.html (Japanese)

...

"The JAEA concluded that Cesium that has fallen and subsequently been disturbed from the ground's surface causes 10 times more internal exposure than direct inhalation"
...

"The result showed that the direct inhalation of Cesium 134 and 137 caused 0.0076-0.0099 milliSv internal exposure, while inhalation of re-floated particles lead to internal exposure of 0.077-0.09 milliSv, approximately ten times higher."

One immediate question is how did they control for ingestion through contaminated food?

I suspect they simply accepted the government's spurious assurances that there is no contaminated food entering the supply chain, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
tsutsuji
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#315
Sep22-11, 07:09 AM
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Quote Quote by zapperzero View Post
Not necessarily. Lots of radioactive steam may have been produced.
Has this theory been discussed in scientific literature before March 2011? Is the mentioned phenomenon the same as what is otherwise called a "steam explosion" ?
joewein
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#316
Sep22-11, 07:40 AM
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Quote Quote by zapperzero View Post
Not necessarily. Lots of radioactive steam may have been produced.
If the SFP of unit 4 was the source for the radioactivity in Ibaraki one would expect significant fuel rod damage in the pool.

However that is at odds with the relatively low contamination level of the pool water in unit 4, which is about 100 times lower than in unit 1, 700 times lower than in unit 2 and 1000 times lower than in unit 3.
Astronuc
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#317
Sep22-11, 10:20 AM
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I've haven't fully explored this, but

Fukushima radiation map published
http://www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?storyCode=2060679
19 September 2011

The Japanese government (MEXT) has issued a contour map of cumulative radioactive dose in air in the 50 km or so of northeastern Japan around the Fukushima Daiichi site, to 11 September.

. . . .
joewein
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#318
Sep23-11, 02:52 AM
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Quote Quote by zapperzero View Post
Quote Quote by tsutsuji View Post
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/genpatsu-...40_keikai.html In his address to the IAEA general conference in Vienna on 19 September, Goshi Hosono said that the completion of step 2 (cold shutdown) does not necessarily mean that the restricted zones will be changed or shrunk. Reducing radiations to such levels that do not affect health will take time and an effective method of disposal of the waste generated by the decontamination work has not been found yet.
Let's send a letter of thanks to Capitain Obvious here.
While it may be obvious to you and me, it is not obvious to the general public here in Japan, or at least not the way things were presented here by the media.

The public here was basically sold on the idea that the evacuation was temporary and would last until "cold shutdown" has been achieved, which was promised by the turn of the year. That is because originally evacuation was justified as a precaution after the cooling problems, not as response to acute contamination of the environment, which was never supposed to happen since the containments would prevent Chernobyl-style contamination.

Since then the truth about soil contamination, both inside the 20 km exclusion zone and in the strip of land to the NW of the plant (Iitate-mura, etc) and even further away has gradually trickled out, but it didn't drastically change the official storyline. Nobody was saying, "No, you won't be able to return in January, even if the reactors are below 100 deg C."

The whole idea of cold shutdown becomes questionable without circulation cooling. Once the RPV and its pipes, seals and valves are penetrated by melted fuel or lose air tightness, as they have, it is no longer possible to circulate water through the RPV and a heat exchanger (like the Residual heat Removal system) as in a normal cold shutdown.

The water will leak out somewhere. If the fuel can't be submerged, steam can form locally. If the seals are no longer tight the steam can leak out. In a way, the covers around the buildings and any filtration applied to them are more significant now than the stretched definition of "cold shutdown" applied to the reactor core.

There has been little discussion about what kind of decontamination is possible or feasible in the evacuated areas, except that TEPCO has said that it would decontaminate them so residents can return, and for months locals have been shown in interviews on TV saying they want to return "as soon as possible" (literally, "if I can return one day sooner, I want to").
zapperzero
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#319
Sep23-11, 04:59 AM
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Quote Quote by joewein View Post
While it may be obvious to you and me, it is not obvious to the general public here in Japan, or at least not the way things were presented here by the media.

The public here was basically sold on the idea that the evacuation was temporary and would last until "cold shutdown" has been achieved, which was promised by the turn of the year. That is because originally evacuation was justified as a precaution after the cooling problems, not as response to acute contamination of the environment, which was never supposed to happen since the containments would prevent Chernobyl-style contamination.
Man oh man. What a pickle. Do you suppose the current gov't will be short-lived as well?
alpi
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#320
Sep23-11, 07:16 AM
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Quote Quote by joewein View Post
Nobody was saying, "No, you won't be able to return in January, even if the reactors are below 100 deg C." ...
Why would any responsible politician say such a thing? I think people should be allowed to return to their homes immediately. The radiation doses indoors where modern people spend most of their lives are less than the reported fairly harmless doses outdoors in the affected areas.
rowmag
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#321
Sep23-11, 08:50 AM
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Quote Quote by Jim Lagerfeld View Post
According to a post made today at the ex-skf blog, we were not the only people to notice that spike - the blog has translated an article from Playboy which postulates a fresh release of radioactive isotopes around the time:

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/09/j...cality-in.html

A couple of personal observations. Firstly, I have been watching these graphs since March 15th, and that radioactive rainstorm is unique as far as I am concerned - I do not think the 'radon daughter theory' explains it adequately. Wouldn't we be able to see this pattern repeated if the radiation was attributable to natural causes? Also, the peak occurred over a a large geographic area.

Secondly, should we take an article in 'Playboy' seriously? The story cites Yoyo Hinuma, currently at University of California San Diego, so it is not just a 'baseless rumour'. I think the theory should at least be considered on its scientific merits. I'm not a scientist, however I do know a bit about the structure of the media establishment in Japan.

Self-censorship in the Japanese media is a well understood phenomenon amongst Japanese media scholars, and almost all big stories are broken through the 'weekly' tabloids. The Neptunium contamination story is a good example - based on solid University of Tokyo research but only reported by 'SPA!'.

So, all that said, why DID the radiation stop after the rain storm on August 19th? And why was there no iodine or cesium detected in the daily municipal fallout figures, yet iodine suddenly reappears in the sewage sludge in Tokyo, Iwate, Niigata, Nagano and the Sub-drain at Fukushima Unit 1? If we consider Dr Hinuma's theory about re-criticality, could other short-lived fission products explain the radioactive rain we experienced on the 19th of August?

http://i55.tinypic.com/2lavqee.jpg
Another blip seen in Ibaraki on Sep. 21st, when the center of Typhoon #15 was passing to the west through Tochigi: strong rain, combined with wind blowing from Fukushima Daiichi (clockwise around the center of the storm). And once again the level dropped again after the storm had passed.

Of course, the typhoon brought very intense rains, so the wind direction could be a coincidence if the theory of radon daughters being kicked up from the soil by rain is correct. But, I think if the radon daughter theory is to be demonstrated, we need to see such a blip when the wind is NOT coming from the direction of Fukushima Daiichi.

Otherwise, what could be getting swept downwind from Fukushima Daichi, and then swept down with the rain, that is either short-lived or doesn't stick around? Noble gases?
tsutsuji
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#322
Sep24-11, 07:46 AM
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http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2011...820321000.html 500 Bq/kg of cesium found in rice tested before harvest in Nihonmatsu, Fukushima prefecture.
Luca Bevil
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#323
Sep25-11, 12:53 PM
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Quote Quote by alpi View Post
Why would any responsible politician say such a thing? I think people should be allowed to return to their homes immediately. The radiation doses indoors where modern people spend most of their lives are less than the reported fairly harmless doses outdoors in the affected areas.
Should not be this forum about scientific facts ?

Do you propose to keep children confined in radiation shielded buildings ?

I habe sove difficulty in wording my strong disagreement in a civil manner, so I'll leave it at this point and let others comment
Azby
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#324
Sep26-11, 04:00 AM
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Quote Quote by alpi View Post
Why would any responsible politician say such a thing? I think people should be allowed to return to their homes immediately. The radiation doses indoors where modern people spend most of their lives are less than the reported fairly harmless doses outdoors in the affected areas.
I wonder if we're talking about the same geographic locations. Unless my translation is hazy (and they often are) the statement refers to the most highly contaminated areas within the 20km exclusion zone as well as less contaminated ones. Maybe you were thinking it was only the latter? Like the rest if us I'm wondering who was thinking they'd be able to go back and live in an area where the ground contamination is over 3,000,000 Bq/m2, but apparently the gov't has really avoided coming out and saying this until now, and many people were holding out hope.


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