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Obama's Candidacy

by Pythagorean
Tags: candidacy, obama
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DrClapeyron
#379
Mar3-12, 01:50 PM
P: 128
I would vote for Obama if it weren't for a coworker's constant political talk. Is it me or do people who claim to be apolitical bring up politics more than anyone else? That and Obama never made the bank executives take a drug test when he gave them their welfare checks.
WhoWee
#380
Mar3-12, 03:30 PM
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Quote Quote by DrClapeyron View Post
I would vote for Obama if it weren't for a coworker's constant political talk. Is it me or do people who claim to be apolitical bring up politics more than anyone else? That and Obama never made the bank executives take a drug test when he gave them their welfare checks.
It seems that every business owner (over the past 2-3 years) I talk with wants to discuss Obamacare and politics in general. Further, my industry is (currently) absolutely obsessed with politics.
Gokul43201
#381
Mar3-12, 04:05 PM
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Quote Quote by HowardVAgnew View Post
Spending on social safety network programs is at among its lowest in decades, and the results are devastating. ...
Quote Quote by WhoWee View Post
Please support - my bold.
From what I've seen, welfare spending has been roughly flat (say a 5-10 yr moving average) since the Nixon/Ford era, and tracks well with unemployment rate (Fig 2). So spending spikes during recessions and drops during better times. And this has happened through Dem and Rep administrations as well as Dem and Rep Congresses. If Fig 1 is close to correct for 2011 spending (it may not be), welfare spending is near a local maximum, not terribly unusual, given the depth of the recent recession and financial crisis.

Fig 1: Federal welfare spending as a fraction of GDP (numbers beyond 2010 are projections)


Fig 2: US unemployment rate
mheslep
#382
Mar3-12, 06:05 PM
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I think welfare spending in constant dollars, per head (not pct GDP), tells me more of the picture.



Welfare spending per person is at an all time high, at the federal level double what it was back in 2000. I agree spending does tend to spike with recessions ('79-80, '90-91, '01, and '08), though nothing like now, even though unemployment in '80 was just as bad/worse.

State
Gokul43201
#383
Mar3-12, 06:41 PM
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Quote Quote by mheslep View Post
I think welfare spending in constant dollars, per head (not pct GDP), tells me more of the picture.
I guess the difference is because GDP has generally been growing much faster than the population. I think both figures are useful to look at. The spending vs GDP plot tells you something about government frugality (or lack thereof) in the context of welfare spending, while the per capita plot tells you about the benefits to recipients. So it's possible for the government to actually spend less (over time) as a fraction of GDP, and still have more money available for individuals to make the best of bad times. That sounds to me like the way to go, at least for the next few years.
WhoWee
#384
Mar5-12, 07:15 PM
P: 1,123
I have to wonder if someone forgot to brief the President? On March 1, 2012 President Obama assured union supporters:
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/03/...esidency-ends/

"Obama: I’ll Buy A Chevy Volt After My Presidency Ends"

But, over the weekend there was a different type of announcement:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/03/bu...volt.html?_r=1

"General Motors said on Friday that it planned to halt production of the Chevrolet Volt for five weeks beginning later this month because dealers had more than they needed.

The suspension, which will result in temporary layoffs for 1,300 workers at the Detroit plant that builds the Volt, is another troubling sign for the plug-in hybrid, whose sales fell short of G.M.’s targets in 2011. G.M. officials had already backed away from projections that they could sell 45,000 Volts in the United States this year, instead saying that production would match demand. "


Congressman Darrell Issa said this about the announcement.:
"“Even as gas prices continue to climb, President Obama’s attempt to manipulate the free market and force consumers into purchasing electric vehicles like the G.M. Volt has failed,” Representative Darrell Issa, Republican of California, said in a statement. “Now some 1,300 workers will pay the price for this misguided experiment.”"

IMO - certainly hope the plant is operational in November 2012.
mheslep
#385
Mar5-12, 07:58 PM
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Quote Quote by WhoWee View Post
I have to wonder if someone forgot to brief the President? On March 1, 2012 President Obama assured union supporters:
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/03/...esidency-ends/

"Obama: I’ll Buy A Chevy Volt After My Presidency Ends"

But, over the weekend there was a different type of announcement:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/03/bu...volt.html?_r=1

"General Motors said on Friday that it planned to halt production of the Chevrolet Volt for five weeks beginning later this month because dealers had more than they needed.

The suspension, which will result in temporary layoffs for 1,300 workers at the Detroit plant that builds the Volt, is another troubling sign for the plug-in hybrid, whose sales fell short of G.M.’s targets in 2011. G.M. officials had already backed away from projections that they could sell 45,000 Volts in the United States this year, instead saying that production would match demand. "


Congressman Darrell Issa said this about the announcement.:
"“Even as gas prices continue to climb, President Obama’s attempt to manipulate the free market and force consumers into purchasing electric vehicles like the G.M. Volt has failed,” Representative Darrell Issa, Republican of California, said in a statement. “Now some 1,300 workers will pay the price for this misguided experiment.”"

IMO - certainly hope the plant is operational in November 2012.
Those seem to be extraordinarily dumb comments by both the President and Rep Issa. Obama in one sentence ties all of his political opposition to the Volt. And for Issa he needs to consider that there might well have been no plant jobs at all without that Volt plant, and not just a five week outage.
daveb
#386
Mar6-12, 11:18 AM
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Quote Quote by mheslep View Post
Those seem to be extraordinarily dumb comments by both the President and Rep Issa. Obama in one sentence ties all of his political opposition to the Volt. And for Issa he needs to consider that there might well have been no plant jobs at all without that Volt plant, and not just a five week outage.
Agreed. Not only that, how excactly is Obama "forcing" people to buy a Volt?
Office_Shredder
#387
Mar6-12, 11:26 AM
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I'm confused. What's wrong with Obama's comment exactly? He's going to buy a Volt, but apparently it isn't super popular so his credibility as a President is dinged?
skeptic2
#388
Mar6-12, 11:54 AM
P: 1,803
Quote Quote by Gokul43201 View Post
From what I've seen, welfare spending has been roughly flat (say a 5-10 yr moving average) since the Nixon/Ford era, and tracks well with unemployment rate (Fig 2). So spending spikes during recessions and drops during better times. And this has happened through Dem and Rep administrations as well as Dem and Rep Congresses. If Fig 1 is close to correct for 2011 spending (it may not be), welfare spending is near a local maximum, not terribly unusual, given the depth of the recent recession and financial crisis.

Fig 1: Federal welfare spending as a fraction of GDP (numbers beyond 2010 are projections)


Fig 2: US unemployment rate
Did unemployment really reach 11% under Reagan?
WhoWee
#389
Mar6-12, 12:09 PM
P: 1,123
Quote Quote by Office_Shredder View Post
I'm confused. What's wrong with Obama's comment exactly? He's going to buy a Volt, but apparently it isn't super popular so his credibility as a President is dinged?
The President has (IMO) funded the Volt with taxpayer funds - including the GM bailout and tax credits for EV's. I think a few stimulus dollars were also spent developing charging stations - not certain? The failure (to meet sales expectations) of the $41,000 EV that travels 25 (?) miles on a charge - absolutely "dings" him.
Office_Shredder
#390
Mar6-12, 12:19 PM
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Quote Quote by skeptic2 View Post
Did unemployment really reach 11% under Reagan?
Yes.
mheslep
#391
Mar6-12, 02:56 PM
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Quote Quote by Office_Shredder View Post
I'm confused. What's wrong with Obama's comment exactly? He's going to buy a Volt, but apparently it isn't super popular so his credibility as a President is dinged?
I meant the other way around: it won't impact Obama it will impact the car sales (IMO). Assuming for the moment the country is 50:50 split on liking/disliking Obama, I posit that the like-half won't be moved at all on decision to buy the car. Not true for the dislike-half. The Chevy Volt is early yet and still in the definition stage of American iconography, unlike (say) an F150 or a Prius. That is, now that he's said he'll buy the car, it's fair game to be called the ObamaCar just like the AHCA is ObamaCare. If he was an immensely popular president, a Reagan, an FDR, maybe this would be to the good for Chevy. As it is, I imagine Chevy sales managers are pulling their hair out.

I guess that most politicians, who are as a lot somewhat arrogant, nonetheless get this kind of thing: not to hang their political fortunes around the neck of some nascent private enterprise or product. That Obama doesn't is yet another comment on the man's immense self regard that has been so evident in his me-myself-and-I laden speeches.
Office_Shredder
#392
Mar6-12, 03:58 PM
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OK I buy that mheslep
Char. Limit
#393
Mar6-12, 04:10 PM
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Quote Quote by WhoWee View Post
IMO - certainly hope the plant is operational in November 2012.
Actually, he said after his presidency ends. So he's got over 4 years.

EDIT: As to why I think Obama will be re-elected:

1. I haven't seen a really strong Republican contender actually run the front. Maybe if Jeb Bush joined, but it's a bit late for that.
2. He's an incumbent, and historically, incumbents have a good chance of re-election.
mege
#394
Mar6-12, 04:47 PM
P: 193
Quote Quote by Char. Limit View Post
2. He's an incumbent, and historically, incumbents have a good chance of re-election.
Except when unemployment stays high.
Char. Limit
#395
Mar6-12, 04:50 PM
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Quote Quote by mege View Post
Except when unemployment stays high.
Seems to be going down to me. Do you have a different source saying it's not?
Evo
#396
Mar6-12, 04:57 PM
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Quote Quote by mege View Post
Except when unemployment stays high.
Wrong. The fact that employment has been rising steadily was on tv earlier today.

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell to the lowest point in almost four years last week, the latest signal that the job market is steadily improving.

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the fourth drop in five weeks and the fewest number of claims since March 2008 — six months before Lehman Brothers collapsed and only a few months into the Great Recession.

The four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations in the weekly data, fell for the fifth straight week to 365,250. The average has fallen nearly 13 percent in the past year.

The consistent decline indicates that companies are laying off fewer workers, and hiring is likely picking up further. When applications drop below 375,000, it usually signals that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

Jeremy Lawson, a senior economist at BNP Paribas, said the report points to solid hiring this month, similar to the average net gain of about 200,000 in the past three months.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-unemploymen...133936693.html


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