|May25-12, 04:14 PM||#1|
Monty hall problem
I suppose you all know this famous problem. It is pretty clear to me why switching doors is beneficial, but I'm however unable to counter this argument from my friend:
What is the difference between having picked a door and then the host revealing a goat, compared to not having picked one and then the host revealing the goat. Clearly there is difference but can someone elaborate in understandable terms because I tend to get very confused.
|May25-12, 04:22 PM||#2|
The difference is that when you pick the door, the host must open ANOTHER door. Therefore if you had the goat in your door (which is 2/3 likely) then the door left closed will have the car 2/3 likely. This gives you information.
If you hadn't picked a door, then the host could choose any of the doors with goats at random, thus not giving any other information about the closed doors.
|May25-12, 04:38 PM||#3|
Another way to look at it: Monty has just given you information, a whole lot of information in this case.
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