Lottery: How to use past results/sales to figure out chance of split w ur pick?

*DaveC426913*

Quote by haruspex

Confused. Post #9 was by techcrium.

Sorry. Post 8.

Quote by haruspex

I see nothing there or since that implies he's trying to improve the odds of picking the numbers that come up. Please quote the actual text.

Quote by techcrium

We can conclude that the may numbers 05, 32, 37, 38, 39, 42 or any combination revolving that set is a "better" pick than the latter combination.

He continues to focus on the winning numbers as if they have any significance.

The two issues are entirely independent.
1] The numbers people pick would be bad numbers for him to choose if he doesn't want to share the prize. Period. To get the best sampling, he would be advised to look at all numbers people are picking - whether they won or lost , since any set of numbers (won or lost) are just as likely to win the next lottery.

2] Utterly independent of that is the issue of what numbers will be the winning numbers. Assuming a fair lottery, nothing about any past numbers will help him with the next numbers.

Conclusion: if you want to increase your haul by not sharing, the only rule to follow is 'pick numbers that other people aren't picking (whether they win or lose on them).'

mfb

Quote by DaveC426913

He continues to focus on the winning numbers as if they have any significance.

Their significance is that we get data about the frequency players pick them.

1] The numbers people pick would be bad numbers for him to choose if he doesn't want to share the prize.

This is the whole point of the thread.

To get the best sampling, he would be advised to look at all numbers people are picking - whether they won or lost

Sure. But these numbers are not available.

2] Utterly independent of that is the issue of what numbers will be the winning numbers. Assuming a fair lottery, nothing about any past numbers will help him with the next numbers.

This was clear all the time.

Conclusion: if you want to increase your haul by not sharing, the only rule to follow is 'pick numbers that other people aren't picking (whether they win or lose on them).'

And the question asked by techcrium is how to do this.

*DaveC426913*

Quote by mfb

Yes. We all agree on this.

Well, I'm not so sure we all do, but...

Quote by mfb

The question is: How do you evaluate what other people are betting?
The only data source is the number of winners in each drawing in the past.

True.
While this is certainly a logistical problem (where do you get numbers for losing lotteries), the OP's question was one of analysis and intelligence. Presumably he's willing to do a bit of work to get the best results.

So seems to me, the thread should focus on innovative ways to get the widest, most accurate sampling of number picking.

techcrium

Yes exactly.
Thanks for MFB for the clarification.

The best case scenario is I work for a lottery corporation and hack into their servers and run a batch to see what everyone picked in the last drawing...

However, that is not feasible so I can only deal with the information I have.

What I have (and what everyone else has) are just numbers of past lottery drawings and split prizes and sales. Therefore, that is the only information I can use to figure out what others are picking.

*DaveC426913*

Quote by techcrium

What I have (and what everyone else has) are just numbers of past lottery drawings and split prizes and sales. Therefore, that is the only information I can use to figure out what others are picking.

Don't forget that, if the odds are 1 in 14,000,000, that also means your sample data is ~1/14,000,000th of the dataset. Not good.

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