Who will win elections?

Angry Citizen

The news media loves a horserace, and they've got y'all believing it's going to come down to the wires. It won't. The height of Romney's post-Denver bounce was enough to put him almost neck and neck with Obama. The bounce has since receded dramatically. Obama's "firewall" in Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will win him the day.

Romney will literally have to sweep the remaining swing states to eke out a victory, plus steal one from the firewall, and that's just not going to happen. The only swing state showing him up at this point is North Carolina, and there are some encouraging numbers from the early voting polls to show that NC may be closer than the polls indicate.

Obama will win, and he will likely win with around 300 EV's or more. Florida is a tossup, and it's the only reason why I'm not predicting a ~330 Obama victory. I also highly recommend not citing national polls when attempting prognostication. The auto bailout has seemingly kept the midwest firewall intact, while the Republican enthusiasm (especially in deep red states) will likely allow Romney to keep the national vote close or even going in his favor. I suspect a split between the EV winner and PV winner is much more likely than people imagine, but I'm not willing to make that prediction.

At this point, I'm most interested in Virginia. If it goes Democrat again, and I think there's a serious chance it will, then it can be said that 2008 was the start of a new political landscape that will be very bad for Republicans. Virginia going blue twice is as bad for Republicans as Pennsylvania going red twice would be for Democrats. It represents a serious breach in their otherwise-solid wall of the old Confederacy. The ramifications for 2016 are immense. Unless the Republicans can find a way to escape the trap of appealing only to WASPs, 2008 and 2012 will be the harbingers of their doom.

phinds

Approximately .02% (that two hundredths of one percent) of Americans read The Economist. Why would you think that matters?

Pythagorean

I don't read the economist but I heard about, and can recognize the social impact of, an endorsement from a magazine called The Economist in a time when the economy is a political topic.

Mentalist

I've posted many critiques of Obama in earlier posts, but I do want him to win this election. I don't see Romney being a competent and trustworthy leader.

When not taking the popular vote into the analysis, Obama is sure to win the electoral vote.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...-electoral-map

Pythagorean

Romney lying/gaffing about Jeep in Ohio, the battleground state, and home to a Jeep factory, probably wasn't a good idea either. And of course Dems are not letting Romney get away with his past statements that had strong implications for ditching FEMA in the wake of hurricane Sandy.

I really think it's over for Romney.

Gokul43201

You've been looking at the wrong polling numbers. We do not use a popular vote in the US. The realclearpolitics electoral map has always had Obama winning. In their map with tossups Romney enjoyed a single digit electoral lead for a 3 day period a couple weeks ago and that was it.

Angry Citizen

And note that RCP at the time considers anything with an aggregate polling advantage of less than 5.5% to be a "toss up". Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which are practically guaranteed for Obama, were at or around 4 to 5%. With those states included, Obama has a 57 point advantage with 253 votes. It takes 270 to win. He wins Ohio? Game over. He wins Florida? Game over. He wins Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire? Game over. He wins Virginia and any other state? Game over. Romney, on the other hand, must go from 191 points to 270. Even giving him Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, he's still not winning, at 258. The election is Obama's, pure and simple.

Gokul43201

Here's another:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo..._toss_ups.html

Gokul43201

Romney need to win FL, OH and one other state. VA or CO are the ones within closest reach, I think. Giving each of these states a 50% probability puts Romney at about a 19% chance of winning. And that's just a crude estimate, but even just stipulating FL and OH as requirements sets the upper bound near 25% for Romney.

Angry Citizen

If I did my head math right, Colorado would not be enough to secure him victory. He would need one other state on top of FL, OH, and CO.

George Jones

Am I allowed to vote ...

in this poll?

Astronuc

Only for the "Leader of the Free World" or "Most Powerful Man on Earth"!

Gokul43201

You may be right - it's hard to do this over a phone. But in any case, I don't think it changes the numbers very much, you still end up with something near the 20% mark. I wonder what Intrade is currently going at.

Angry Citizen

67% Obama. And according to Nate Silver, those are bullish odds for Romney versus the other betting sites. Your prediction is also what Silver has to offer, an 80.9% chance of an Obama victory (likely to increase tonight by another couple points given the good set of polls released today).

CAC1001

Any time Republicans lose, we hear about the supposed end of the Republican party, but it doesn't happen. I don't get the idea that Republicans only appeal to WASP's though. I think it's more just that other ethnicities tend to vote Democratic party in larger numbers.

rootX

Another twist to the race

mheslep

Which pollster was closest on the 2008 P. election? Let's see. Spread was 6.2 (popular vote). Pew and Rasmussen both called it at 6 a couple days prior, and both had a very low 2.0 MoE.

Most recent:
Rasmussen: dead even, 48:48
Pew: dead even, 47:47

I hope the replacement refs don't have to call this one.

Also:
ABC/WaPo, Gallup, NPR - Romney
CBS/NYT/, NJ, IBD/TIPP, Politico - Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html