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The Global Decline in Violence

by russ_watters
Tags: decline, global, violence
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jim hardy
Feb2-13, 06:36 PM
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Quote Quote by phion View Post
In the USA alone, total (found) gun deaths per year has risen by over 3,000 since 1999. Last year, total gun deaths in the USA in 2011 surpassed 32,000.
Point being ?
Let us not turn this into a gun control debate.

I submit that root causes of gun violence are not different than non-gun violence.
However, gun violence is well studied and documented. So here's some statistics:
In 2011, the latest figure available from the Centers for Disease Control,
Accidental discharge 851
Suicide 19,766
Homicide 11,101
Undetermined Intent 222
Lots more suicide than homicide.

Poverty is a substantial factor in gun deaths by metro, as it was in our previous state-level analysis. The percentage of a metro’s population below the poverty line is significantly associated with all three types of gun death — homicide (.45), suicide (.35), and the overall rate (.49).

Economic advantage plays a substantial role in moderating death by gun, at the metro level as it did for states. More affluent metros have lower rates of all forms of gun death. That said, economic advantage — measured as per capita income — plays a bigger role in moderating the overall rate of gun death (-.55) and that for gun-related suicide (-.64) than for gun-related murders (-.32).

Education plays a similar role in moderating gun death, with more highly-educated metros having lower levels of all types of gun death. The share of adults that are college grads is negatively correlated with of gun death overall (-.57), suicides (-.52), and murders (-.46).

Gun death also varies by socio-economic class. Higher levels of knowledge-based, creative class work at the metro level is associated with lower levels of all three types of gun death — overall gun deaths (-. 55), gun-related suicides (-.53), and gun-related homicides (-.39). The same pattern holds for high-tech industry. A metro’s share of high-tech industry is negatively associated with overall gun deaths (-.49), gun-related suicides (-.53), and homicides (-.32). Conversely, metros with higher shares of blue-collar working class jobs experience higher rates of all three, with positive correlations to overall gun deaths (.52), suicides (.49), and murders (.37).
Race, unfortunately and tragically, factors into gun death at the metro level. The share of the population that is black is positively related to both the overall rate of gun death (.56) and even more so with gun-related homicides (.72). The pattern is similar for the share of the population that is comprised of young black males which is also positively related to the overall rate of gun death (.55) and murder by gun (.70).
I would guess the world trend toward civility noted by Russ is related to spead of education and affluence. In short, westernization.

Are we moving backward in the inner cities?

image from that Atlantic link
jim hardy
Feb2-13, 06:44 PM
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Quote Quote by russ_watters View Post
... And discussion: "Why are so many people so wrong about something so important?"
Shallow reporting. "If you can't be thoughtful, be exciting."
Feb2-13, 08:18 PM
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Quote Quote by jim hardy View Post
Lots more suicide than homicide.
Since when is suicide-by-gun not violent?
Feb3-13, 02:05 AM
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Because this thread isn't about guns and we've had numerous "gun debates" and it's always the same. Since the thread seems to have gone off topic, it's time to close.

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