Ike is heading for the Gulf of Mexico

Ivan Seeking

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...y.html#a_topad

Math Is Hard

My Dad (near the Texas coast) took the boards down that he nailed up the house with for Gustav. The way it's going, he might as well have left the boards up through November.

turbo

Holy crap! If that projected track is anywhere near accurate, there is some trouble brewing. A well-formed hurricane moving from the cooler Atlantic into the warm Gulf can turn into a monster. Let's hope this doesn't come true.

Ivan Seeking

One European model goes way out on a limb and has it hitting Mobile, Alabama, but apparently most models show it entering the gulf.

Yes, this looks pretty dangerous. Note how it jumps up to a Cat 4.

LowlyPion

Right now Cuba and the Keys look to be in for a rough go of it by Monday afternoon.

Current jet streams look like Ike will begin to be steered northward more by then suggesting Florida panhandle landfall. But then I thought Gustav would end up east of New Orleans. So...

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

Whatever the situation let's hope it gives up some of its energy by then.

Evo

It's no longer a Cat 4 , it's been downgraded to a Cat 3 and projections (which this far off means little) is that it's headed for S Florida.

Ivan Seeking

Do you mean that it is projected to not make Cat 4? Right now the map shows it as a Cat 3. .

Evo

Right now it is Cat 3, there is no telling what it will end up as.

Astronuc

As Ike moves toward and over Cuba is will probably lose some energy, but it could pick up again when it moves into the Gulf.

Gustav was supposed to strengthen as it moved across the Gulf, but it didn't strengthen as much as NHC thought it would.

Ike was a Cat 4 then lost some energy to become a Cat 3. If it hugs Floridas western coast, it may not strengthen too much it at all in the Gulf.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...?5day#contents (on Sept 05, 2008 - the information with this link will be updated several times each day)

As of today, it looks like it would hit somewhere between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL.

russ_watters

The "discussion" section of that nhc link is where they have all the good junk on the predictions. The intensity forecasts are touger even than the track, so we'll have to wait and see, but the projections are for it to enter the gulf as a major hurricane after a slight weakening over the next day:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

Cat 5 is > 136 kt (155 mph), Cat 4 is 115-135 kt (131 - 154 mph).

Moonbear

The projections I've seen on the TV news show it dropping down to a Cat 2 before landfall. But, these things are never perfect, so who knows until it actually gets there.

turbo

thanks, Russ. We'll have to see where it ends up.

PS. don't do more than putts and chip shots for a week or so. Good luck!!

russ_watters

Well with Hanna here for the weekend, there won't be any temptation until next week, but I'm itching to get back to it. I suspect I'll try to hit the driving range next weekend.

turbo

Swing easy, upper body only, and sweep through. Gentle constant application of force = club-head speed. It's true.

LowlyPion

I found this table on IKE projections for wind there:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...large#contents

The probabilities add a different feel to the numbers, because as you say I think this calculation just must be more inexact from their models.

Astronuc

So from the table posted by Russ, the predictions indicate Ike could hit Cat 4 before the hits land - assuming it stays on the projected track.

russ_watters

Well, if it stays on the current track, landfall is well outside of the prediction's time range. Presumably, though, the warm waters of the gulf would do little to sap its strength.