Odds of being dealt 'AA' 3 times in a row in texas hold'em

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the odds of being dealt 'AA' (pocket aces) three times in a row in Texas Hold'em poker. Participants explore different methods of calculating these odds, considering various factors that may influence the probabilities.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant questions the odds calculation, suggesting that it depends on the player's position and the cards dealt to other players.
  • Another participant proposes a specific probability calculation for being dealt 'AA', stating it as (4x3)/(52x51) for one hand, with a more complex calculation for three consecutive hands.
  • A participant mentions a method that implies cheating, indicating that such occurrences can happen in card games.
  • One participant claims the odds of being dealt pocket aces are 1 in 222, leading to a calculation of 10,941,048 for three consecutive occurrences.
  • A later reply corrects the previous claim, stating the odds are actually 1 in 221, not 222.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the calculation methods and the implications of player positions, indicating that multiple competing views remain without a consensus on the correct approach.

Contextual Notes

Some calculations depend on assumptions about player positions and the visibility of other cards, which may affect the odds presented.

bozo the clown
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What are the odds of being dealt 'AA' 3 times in a row in texas holdem.
 
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It would depend upon which layer you are and what other players got-- odds could be dependent on how you calculate them
for example if you were first player and you got A it owuld be 4/52 but if you were second player and the first player got A it would be 3/51 if first player got A but 4/51 if they did not.

From complete blind odds- a calculation could be done but I am too tired for ACT to do that now
 
McCurdy is wrong. Since all the other cards are hidden, the probability of AA is (4x3)/(52x51) for anyone hand. The probability for 3 times in a row is that no. cubed. If you are talking about a long sequence of hands, the probability of 3 in a row some time is more complicated.
 
my method implied a little cheating :)

hey don't pretend it doesn't happen in cards
 
I I am talking about 'pocket aces' the 2 cards each player is dealt at start of round now the odds of being dealt 2 aces is 1 in 222 therefore
222*222*222 = 10,941,048 - 1 am I correct

so I basically did the equivalent of winning a small fortune on the lottery except all I won was about $50
 
Minor quibble. According to my calculation, the odds are 1 in 221, not 222.
 

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