Can Terrorism Futures Markets Predict Events Accurately?

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  • Thread starter Thread starter Ivan Seeking
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the concept of terrorism futures markets, specifically the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market (PAM), and whether such markets can accurately predict future events. Participants explore the implications of these markets, including ethical concerns and the potential influence of investors on terrorism-related events.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested, Conceptual clarification, Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express concern that terrorism futures markets could incentivize investors to encourage terrorism for profit.
  • Others acknowledge the potential predictive power of such markets but question the ethical implications of their existence.
  • A participant mentions the involvement of foreign investors, suggesting that individuals who finance terrorism could participate in these markets.
  • There is a claim that the market may not use real money, comparing it to the Hollywood Stock Exchange, which operates as an intellectual exercise rather than a financial one.
  • Some participants find the idea of terrorism futures markets to be bizarre, despite recognizing some logical aspects to the concept.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally express disagreement regarding the ethical implications and potential consequences of terrorism futures markets, with no consensus on whether they could be beneficial or harmful.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference various assumptions about the nature of the market, including its operational mechanics and the involvement of investors, which remain unresolved.

Ivan Seeking
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"Legislators like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) may have found the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market, or PAM, "grotesque." But proponents of "idea markets" say PAM's quicksilver cancellation will rob the country's intelligence agencies of a tool with a strong history of accurately predicting future events."

http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59818,00.html
 
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OK, but at the same time, wouldn't investors have a cause to ENCOURAGE terrorism and the like?
 
Originally posted by Zero
OK, but at the same time, wouldn't investors have a cause to ENCOURAGE terrorism and the like?

To me this idea just stinks; but there is some logic to it. Still, you make a good point. It could end up contributing to the problem.
 
Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
To me this idea just stinks; but there is some logic to it. Still, you make a good point. It could end up contributing to the problem.

Especially since(I think I read this), foreign investors will participate, possibly including the very individuals who finance terror, like George H.W. Bush's saudi business partners.
 
It didn't appear to me that the market would use real money. The examples they gave such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange do NOT use real money. Its all just an intellectual exercise.

That said, its still a pretty bizarre idea.
 

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