Stock on Kerry in an IEM free fall

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the performance of stock related to John Kerry in the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) amidst the upcoming presidential debates and election. Participants explore the implications of market behavior and historical accuracy of the IEM in forecasting election outcomes.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • One participant notes the current stock quotes for Kerry and expresses skepticism about market behavior ahead of the debates, suggesting a belief that Bush will perform better.
  • Another participant highlights the historical accuracy of the Iowa Electronic Market, stating it has outperformed polls since 1988 in predicting election results.
  • A third participant expresses surprise at the information regarding the IEM, indicating a lack of prior knowledge about its accuracy.
  • Another participant shows interest in the market dynamics, specifically mentioning the "floor" in relation to stock performance.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not appear to reach a consensus, as there are differing views on the implications of market behavior and the accuracy of the IEM compared to traditional polling methods.

Contextual Notes

Some assumptions about market behavior and the impact of debates on stock performance remain unaddressed, and the discussion does not resolve the uncertainty surrounding the predictions made by the IEM.

kat
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Stock on Kerry in an IEM "free fall"

Market Quotes: Pres04_WTA.html
Quotes current as of 12:31:43 CST, Monday, September 27, 2004.
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.061 0.069 0.067 0.067 0.077 0.072
DEM04_L52 0.210 0.219 0.225 0.207 0.232 0.226
REP04_L52 0.230 0.231 0.230 0.217 0.231 0.222
REP04_G52 0.492 0.495 0.495 0.470 0.536 0.491

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html

Surprising with the "october surprises" yet to come. Why are the markets acting so decisive with over a month still to come...I'm betting on Bush mopping the floor with Kerry during the debates...seems I'm not alone.
It will be interesting to see the rise and fall of the market during the debates, 15 minute refreshes Thursday evening will probably be more revealing then any "news" commentary...

Stay tuned... :biggrin:
 
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For those who aren't familiar with the Iowa Electronic Market, it has historically been more accurate than polls since it started in 1988. The IEM has forecasted election results with incredible accuracy, tracking the vote totals of winning candidates of the most recent presidential elections to within 2 tenths of a percentage point.
 
Neat! Neat! (had to say neat twice; forum rules of length)
 
Very interesting. I was completely unaware of this.

Anyways, I'm keeping my eyes on that "floor".