Probably better for Europe if Bush wins

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the implications of the U.S. presidential election on Europe, particularly regarding military involvement in Iraq and the potential consequences of either George W. Bush or John Kerry winning the election. Participants explore the political dynamics, military capabilities, and international relations involved in the context of the Iraq situation.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants argue that it may be better for Europe if Bush wins, as he would face the consequences of the Iraq situation alone, potentially avoiding European entanglement.
  • Others contend that the U.S. military is strong but lacks effective control over the situation in Iraq, suggesting that military strength does not equate to diplomatic success.
  • There are claims that European nations do not have a combined military force sufficient to make a significant difference in Iraq, with some participants emphasizing the financial constraints faced by both the U.S. and European countries.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the U.S. military strategy and its implications for international credibility, particularly in light of the UK's shifting stance.
  • Disagreements arise over the interpretation of military capabilities and the financial implications of deploying troops from Europe to Iraq.
  • Several posts reflect a contentious exchange regarding the tone and respectfulness of arguments, with accusations of straw man arguments and sarcasm affecting the discourse.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus; multiple competing views remain regarding the implications of the election outcomes, military capabilities, and the effectiveness of U.S. foreign policy.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include varying interpretations of military strength, financial capabilities, and the political landscape, which are not fully resolved in the discussion.

vanesch
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It will probably be better for Europe that Bush wins the election, because then he'll have to face all by himself the consequences of what's happening in Iraq and the related costs, and related feelings from Arab populations. The situation being quite hopeless, if Kerry wins, all the chances are he'll ask European nations to help him out of the mess, and we'll get sucked into it too. So although in general there is quite some more sympathy for Kerry than for Bush on this side of the Atlantic, it's probably much better that Bush gets another term.
 
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You guys don't have a combined force large enough to make a difference in Iraq (not a cheap shot, just the truth). An international force only brings an in the ability to kill off any ideas that this is just America trying to take your OIL!OMG NOES!
Bush's move to a lilypad military scheme (fantastic!) , including moving of troops in Europe and S korea, frees up more American troops than you can offer anyways.

In the most political way I can say it...We don't REALLY need your help. Although, I guess it would be nice to let other countries shoulder most of the cost, like in GW1 :o (sorry about that BTW)
 
phatmonky said:
You guys don't have a combined force large enough to make a difference in Iraq (not a cheap shot, just the truth). An international force only brings an in the ability to kill off any ideas that this is just America trying to take your OIL!OMG NOES!
Bush's move to a lilypad military scheme (fantastic!) , including moving of troops in Europe and S korea, frees up more American troops than you can offer anyways.

In the most political way I can say it...We don't REALLY need your help. Although, I guess it would be nice to let other countries shoulder most of the cost, like in GW1 :o (sorry about that BTW)

Hmmm, what a nice refreshing view. It is a fact that the US has the strongest army all around and you guys can invade anybody you want whithout needind any help. yet you CANNOT deny the fact that you situation in Iraq is messed up and you do not have it under control with your strongest army around. I would say you are the strongest but certainly not the smartest and the most diplomatic. The US has no credibilty left in the entire world. Just look at how the UK is turning against you guys...The Blair-administration is paying the bill.

You got away with it this time, but don't be surprised if a second 911 takes place in your superior nation of geniousses...

regards
marlon
 
I agree with vanesch's statement... hey that will be the first time...

marlon
 
marlon said:
I agree with vanesch's statement... hey that will be the first time...

:smile: :smile: :smile: :smile:
 
marlon said:
Hmmm, what a nice refreshing view. It is a fact that the US has the strongest army all around and you guys can invade anybody you want whithout needind any help. yet you CANNOT deny the fact that you situation in Iraq is messed up and you do not have it under control with your strongest army around. I would say you are the strongest but certainly not the smartest and the most diplomatic. The US has no credibilty left in the entire world. Just look at how the UK is turning against you guys...The Blair-administration is paying the bill.

You got away with it this time, but don't be surprised if a second 911 takes place in your superior nation of geniousses...

regards
marlon
Preempting your statement with such blatant sarcasm as "what a nice refreshing view" does nothing for my respect of you or your statement. In short, you weaken your own point because you can't keep this mature.

I don't even know what I can respond to your post with. You launched a few straw man attacks in there...and that's about it.

And it's "geniuses".
 
It will probably be better for Europe that Bush wins the election, because then he'll have to face all by himself the consequences of what's happening in Iraq and the related costs, and related feelings from Arab populations. The situation being quite hopeless, if Kerry wins, all the chances are he'll ask European nations to help him out of the mess, and we'll get sucked into it too. So although in general there is quite some more sympathy for Kerry than for Bush on this side of the Atlantic, it's probably much better that Bush gets another term.

Not sure if I'd give him that much credit ... how many more cans of worms can he open up if he gets another term? Since the mess needs to be cleaned up, us hiding it out sure won't at least help.
 
phatmonky said:
Preempting your statement with such blatant sarcasm as "what a nice refreshing view" does nothing for my respect of you or your statement. In short, you weaken your own point because you can't keep this mature.

I don't even know what I can respond to your post with. You launched a few straw man attacks in there...and that's about it.

And it's "geniuses".

Thanks for the correction man,...

I agree with you : you cannot respond because you know i am right and there ain't much to say when the naked truth is said...

regards
marlon
 
marlon said:
Thanks for the correction man,...

I agree with you : you cannot respond because you know i am right and there ain't much to say when the naked truth is said...

regards
marlon

I never stated anything that disagreed with your post. And your post doesn't directly disagree with mine.

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/straw-man.html
 
  • #10
phatmonky said:
I never stated anything that disagreed with your post. And your post doesn't directly disagree with mine.

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/straw-man.html


hahaha, nice one :biggrin: :rolleyes: :biggrin: . You know it is really credible that someone like you gives lessons in raethorica... :wink: :wink: :wink:

Yet i never said you need to agree with me nor did i imply that you DID or DID NOT agree with me. What i said are plain facts and there is not much to argue about. On the other hand we can THINK about the implication of these words rather then argue about them, but obviously you missed that point...


regards
marlon
 
  • #11
phatmonky said:
You guys don't have a combined force large enough to make a difference in Iraq (not a cheap shot, just the truth).

Nope, we don't have the MONEY to do so (and nor does the US :-p )
The US army has about 1370.000 military (everything together) if I'm right.
I will take 3 European nations to compare with: Germany has 221000, the UK has 212000 and France has 294000 military in service.

The US spends $953 per capita on military, Germany $470, UK $527 and France $772.

The US has 370000 Air force personnel, Germany has 76200, the UK 52540 and France has 78000.

The troops the US has in Iraq are of the order of 150000. So compared to the above numbers, although the US is of course much stronger, your claim is wrong. It is just that it would RUIN Europe to send, say, 300000 soldiers in Iraq.
 
  • #12
marlon said:
hahaha, nice one :biggrin: :rolleyes: :biggrin: . You know it is really credible that someone like you gives lessons in raethorica... :wink: :wink: :wink:

Yet i never said you need to agree with me nor did i imply that you DID or DID NOT agree with me. What i said are plain facts and there is not much to argue about. On the other hand we can THINK about the implication of these words rather then argue about them, but obviously you missed that point...


regards
marlon

Yes someone like me... :rolleyes:

I'm not here to try to figure your implied nuances. You quoted my post and continued on with "YOU KNOW I'm RIGHT" stuff.
I'm moving on. If you care to get back on track, feel free.
 
  • #13
vanesch said:
Nope, we don't have the MONEY to do so (and nor does the US :-p )
The US army has about 1370.000 military (everything together) if I'm right.
I will take 3 European nations to compare with: Germany has 221000, the UK has 212000 and France has 294000 military in service.

The US spends $953 per capita on military, Germany $470, UK $527 and France $772.

The US has 370000 Air force personnel, Germany has 76200, the UK 52540 and France has 78000.

The troops the US has in Iraq are of the order of 150000. So compared to the above numbers, although the US is of course much stronger, your claim is wrong. It is just that it would RUIN Europe to send, say, 300000 soldiers in Iraq.

Mentioning numbers of troops that won't be sent to Iraq makes no difference when discussing a "force large enough to make a difference in Iraq ".
If that force can't get to the ground and implement military tactics there, then size isn't the only reason you can't make a difference,and I repeat my original assertion in that case.

In the end, don't worry. No one is calling for you to enter Iraq, and your government itself has continued to repeat that Kerry winning won't change there being no French troops.

P.S. England is already in Iraq, so their numbers are moot for this discussion (unless you want to discuss the fact that such a small number of their troops actually went to Iraq, and then there's another story on what percentage of actual standing military can be afforded.)


PPS. That 1.4 million number of yours is Active dute only. We have about double that number when including reserve
 
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  • #14
phatmonky said:
In the end, don't worry. No one is calling for you to enter Iraq, and your government itself has continued to repeat that Kerry winning won't change there being no French troops.

It is the gouvernment of the country I live in. But it is not my gouvernment, although for the Iraq issue it has all my sympathy. I just say this in order for you not to think that I'm in some chauvinist mood. My own country has a military force of about 39000 and hence IS indeed insignificant.

P.S. England is already in Iraq, so their numbers are moot for this discussion (unless you want to discuss the fact that such a small number of their troops actually went to Iraq, and then there's another story on what percentage of actual standing military can be afforded.)

I only took 3 European nations as examples. There are 25 in total, so it should give you the idea that although the US is stronger, it is not, say, 5 times stronger than all European nations united, and that considering the number of troops in Iraq, this is a small part of what the US has, and can be delivered by Europe too. The point I was making was that even with such a small part of the total forces "at war" (meaning, sitting on trucks riding through the country until a carbomb blows their truck in the air), the bill is tremendeous for the US (if you recon that you'll have to stay there for 5 or 10 more years :-)
So it is not a matter of military force in stock. It is a matter of paying the bill. The money bill, but also the political bill and the terrorist exposure bill.
It is a very high one, and I think it is better that we won't get involved. Because you don't buy much for the money invested!

PPS. That 1.4 million number of yours is Active dute only. We have about double that number when including reserve

Same for the others.
 
  • #15
phatmonky said:
Yes someone like me... :rolleyes:

I'm not here to try to figure your implied nuances. You quoted my post and continued on with "YOU KNOW I'm RIGHT" stuff.
I'm moving on. If you care to get back on track, feel free.

"YOU KNOW I AM RIGHT STUFF...", hhmmm, yes :rolleyes:

since i am feeling very free i will mention the fact that you are not getting the point here. There is a difference between arguing and considering facts. The US has no real policy in Iraq nor does the US have any control what so ever in this region. Basically i am just wondering what it is , Americans are doing there. Just like you say that the US does not need Europe when it comes to military help, it needs to be said that Iraq does not need the US-military present in their nation. Why o Why did you guys went there in the first place ? What is your justification and what is your goal?

marlon
 
  • #16
marlon said:
Just like you say that the US does not need Europe when it comes to military help, it needs to be said that Iraq does not need the US-military present in their nation.

If I may reformulate your idea:
The US doesn't need Europe to do nothing in particular in Iraq, except messing around. It does it very well by itself. :biggrin:

(are we still agreeing ? I hope so...)
 
  • #17
we sure are... :)

marlon
 
  • #18
marlon said:
Why o Why did you guys went there in the first place ? What is your justification and what is your goal?

In a dark past, I vaguely remember a certain M. Bush claiming that the justification was that they had pictures of Saddam H. himself (brother in law, or almost so, of his best friend O. Ben L.) screwing warheads containing Weapons of Mass Deception onto intercontinental missiles that were going to hit the center of Dallas (or something of the kind, it was so long ago that my memory is fading).

The goal was to make a safer world, and have the Iraqi children wave American flags and pictures of Bush when the glorious troops would deliver the country from their bad bad dictator. The surrounding nations, also with bad bad dictators would become so jealous of the luck the Iraqis had, that they would soon ask for a delivery all for themselves...

:smile: :smile:
 
  • #19
marlon said:
The US has no real policy in Iraq nor does the US have any control what so ever in this region. Basically i am just wondering what it is , Americans are doing there. Just like you say that the US does not need Europe when it comes to military help, it needs to be said that Iraq does not need the US-military present in their nation. Why o Why did you guys went there in the first place ? What is your justification and what is your goal?

marlon
Voter registration began TODAY, in Iraq. :smile:
 
  • #20
Quick question, honestly. French government has been a very keen opponent of the War in Iraq.
1) Do the majority of the French agree with the French government ?
2) Is the war in Iraq make French people dislike Bush ?
3) Did the French people know that Saddam sold oil ilegally to France for dirt cheap oil, is this have anything to do with the French govenment opposing the war?
 
  • #21
My understanding is that Chirac is not facing a good chance of re-election. How much of this has to do with the Oil for Food scandal or how he has handled U.S.-France relations?
 
  • #22
kat said:
My understanding is that Chirac is not facing a good chance of re-election. How much of this has to do with the Oil for Food scandal or how he has handled U.S.-France relations?

excuse me but re-election of Chirac ?

marlon
 
  • #23
kat said:
Voter registration began TODAY, in Iraq. :smile:

Maybe but we all know that this Iraqi governement does not have any real influence and recognition of the common Iraqi-citizen...

marlon
 
  • #24
vanesch said:
It will probably be better for Europe that Bush wins the election, because then he'll have to face all by himself the consequences of what's happening in Iraq and the related costs, and related feelings from Arab populations. The situation being quite hopeless, if Kerry wins, all the chances are he'll ask European nations to help him out of the mess, and we'll get sucked into it too. So although in general there is quite some more sympathy for Kerry than for Bush on this side of the Atlantic, it's probably much better that Bush gets another term.

As much as the general public in Europe dislike Bush, I'm sure European leaders are hoping for a Bush win.

Bush has attempted (and succeeded to a large extent) to give the idea that his administration will stick it out in Iraq, regardless of the cost to the United States. Most European leaders will gladly let Bush dangle from his own rope.

Kerry has less personal stake in Iraq - it wasn't his mistake. His decisions on Iraq will be made more objectively. Objectively, Europe is impacted as severely by a total failure in Iraq as the US is.
 
  • #25
In a poll where only 27% of Brits had a favorable opinion of The US and its citizens (not GW or his administration) about 70% of the French voiced a favorable opinion.

Not sure of the source, but I heard this from Judy Woodruff (on CNN) just a few minutes ago.

And about 65% of the French have an unfavourable opinion of GW. There was no mention of how many 'favorables' and how many 'no opinions' there were.
 
  • #26
When I was living in Bordeaux (Left april 2002) there were protests in the street every day with up to 200 people at one time (One of my friends was american - we made fun of him a lot =p).
I would say that most people in France either don't know or don't care about the Dirt cheap oil, except of course the corporations that were getting major profits from it, Cleaner fuel is a big issue in France (and other european nations) so I think if they knew about the food for oil thing I think a lot of them opposed it (see, the french don't like their government either, we're all human here).

I also don't want europe and Canada to start spending lots of money in Iraq, especially if its just going to be thrown away like the americans are doing.
 
  • #27
Stanley_Smith said:
Quick question, honestly. French government has been a very keen opponent of the War in Iraq.
1) Do the majority of the French agree with the French government ?

As far as I see it, right now the french government is not very popular in France, because it made some unpopular changes, essentially reducing state spending (with reduced aids to the unemployed ...) less spending on education and public health, diminishing pensions, augmenting retirement age etc... combined with tax cuts which favor the rich (about half of the population in france doesn't pay income tax).
However, on the Iraq question, everybody agrees with the french government.

2) Is the war in Iraq make French people dislike Bush ?

Definitely. However, contrary to the american attitude, it is Bush and its environment only, and not "the US" or "the americans" which are disliked.

3) Did the French people know that Saddam sold oil ilegally to France for dirt cheap oil, is this have anything to do with the French govenment opposing the war?

The french are used to such kind of tricks and scandals. I don't think that this has ANYTHING to do with the French government opposing war. If I can think of a few reasons why they opposed the war, here are a few:
- it was (and still is) the wish of 95% of the population
- the french often see themselves as the intellectual defenders of humanism, and especially if they can oppose the US in doing so they won't miss the occasion (but in this case it was such an evident bet !)
- they were just voicing out loud what most of Europe thought. Let us not forget that the European governments supporting the war were doing that to please the US (and hope they would win some international influence with that - Asnar in Spain - or by loyalty - the UK) and not because they had any significant support amongst their population. The people of Europe never had been so united (too bad that their governments didn't). I think it must have appealed also to the French government to play this note very hard, knowing that they had universal popular european support, hence strengthening their position in Europe (which has indeed been the case: it is the French proposal that has more or less been adopted as the european constitution, and it were again the french who lead the discussion with Turkey).
- you don't have to be a world class politician to see that you would get strong opposition from Arab countries. France has a high level of Arab immigrants, which would render any approval of a war in Iraq extremely dangerous.

Finally, I think that the French government saw itself defending the European position (and not only the french one) in the security councel of the UN. I really think that the idea was to stop Bush doing something silly. I don't think Chirac thought that Bush would go ahead without the UN.
 
  • #28
BobG said:
Bush has attempted (and succeeded to a large extent) to give the idea that his administration will stick it out in Iraq, regardless of the cost to the United States. Most European leaders will gladly let Bush dangle from his own rope.

Kerry has less personal stake in Iraq - it wasn't his mistake. His decisions on Iraq will be made more objectively. Objectively, Europe is impacted as severely by a total failure in Iraq as the US is.

Yes, that was exactly my point in the beginning of this thread. With Kerry, Europe would be one way or another, sucked into this adventure, without honors, but with the bill to pay. It would also give rise to a new divide in Europe (as it was the case at the start of the war) while with Bush, he'll have to handle it on its own ; I think most of European nations agree with that now.
We could even hope that this "military success" will cure the Bush guys from starting another war, one can always hope :redface: Not sure Ossama will not manage another master tour to trick George into yet another foolishness, but there is hope that he learned his lesson now.
The main problem ahead is probably the rather lousy relations that will remain for 4 more years with the US and also the probably bad economic situation in the US that will be caused by it (though the high petrol prices amongst other things) which will also have its bad influence on Europe. However, it isn't sure that that would have been better with Kerry (concerning the economy). The main advantage I see is that the US will remain rather isolated, and that this is a new chance for Europe to become stronger on the diplomatic level, especially in the Arab world. After all, it wasn't possible for Europe to become strong politically on an international level as long as they had the choice of just agreeing with the US, or just quibbling amongst themselves. But I'm not sure that European leaders will have the wiseness to take up this opportunity, but I hope so.
 
  • #29
"The french are used to such kind of tricks and scandals"

I wasn't sure if you are aware of the violation of the oil for food program; if you are, discard this. Here are a few links you can read if you have time and interested:

http://www.apfn.net/messageboard/06-29-04/discussion.cgi.22.html
http://acepilots.com/unscam/archives/001461.html#more


"the french often see themselves as the intellectual defenders of humanism"

maybe you don't know about colonization, not too long ago. When The US and the Brits gave independence back to Philippines and India, what did the French government do to Indochina ?...
 
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  • #30
Stanley_Smith said:
"The french are used to such kind of tricks and scandals"

I wasn't sure if you are aware of the violation of the oil for food program; if you are, discard this. Here are a few links you can read if you have time and interested:

http://www.apfn.net/messageboard/06-29-04/discussion.cgi.22.html
http://acepilots.com/unscam/archives/001461.html#more


"the french often see themselves as the intellectual defenders of humanism"

maybe you don't know about colonization, not too long ago. When The US and the Brits gave independence back to Philippines and India, what did the French government do to Indochina ?...

Or North Africa?
 
Last edited by a moderator:

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