The Guardian's Letter Writing Campaign, redux

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the impact of a letter-writing campaign by The Guardian on the 2004 U.S. presidential election, particularly in Ohio. Participants explore the implications of the campaign, its reception, and its potential effects on voter behavior and election outcomes.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants argue that the campaign was a serious attempt to influence U.S. politics, potentially backfiring and contributing to Bush's victory.
  • Others express skepticism about the campaign's effectiveness, suggesting it may not have significantly affected the overall vote in Ohio, despite high turnout in Clark County.
  • One participant notes that the campaign could have influenced voter turnout, possibly increasing Republican votes, but doubts it changed many minds.
  • Another participant highlights the need for a substantial shift in votes statewide to impact the election outcome, questioning the likelihood of such a change due to the letters.
  • Some participants find the situation entertaining, while others view it as frustrating, reflecting differing emotional responses to the campaign's implications.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the campaign's impact, with multiple competing views regarding its effectiveness and the extent of its influence on the election results.

Contextual Notes

Participants discuss various assumptions about voter behavior, the political landscape, and the specific dynamics of the election in Ohio, but these remain unresolved and are subject to differing interpretations.

russ_watters
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We've discussed this before and I remain convinced that this was a serious effort to meddle in US politics. Whether it was or not, it may have done precisely the opposite of what was intended: it may have been the deciding factor in the election - giving the win to Bush.

Link: Brits' campaign backfires in Ohio
The letters — many of which criticized the war in Iraq, spoke of fear abroad of U.S. foreign policy and implored recipients to vote President Bush out of office — were attacked as an invasion of privacy and intrusion into U.S. sovereignty.
The campaign allowed more than 14,000 Guardian readers to send letters to voters in Clark County (population 145,000) who had not declared their party affiliation when they registered. It was canceled less than 24 hours after the first letters arrived in Ohio.

And on Election Day, Clark was the only one of Ohio's 88 counties — and among only 5% of all 3,113 U.S. counties and independent townships — to turn from Democratic blue in 2000 to Republican red this year.
This is beyond funny - its yet another miscalculation on how to defeat Bush - just this one can't be blamed on Kerry or his staff.
 
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Didn't I just read this somewhere else... ?

Yup, BobG's post, #52, here.

What a stupid bunch of morons ! Sheesh !
 
Oops - missed that. In any case, I disagree with his point: It may well have affected the vote in the whole state - not just Clark county.
 
Again, as I stated in my now locked thread, these people do not understand the American political landscape.
 
russ_watters said:
Oops - missed that. In any case, I disagree with his point: It may well have affected the vote in the whole state - not just Clark county.
I imagine it's possible. But I still think it's unlikely.

There were 8 races in Clark county involving both a Rep and a Dem. Republicans won all 8 races with the Bush-Kerry race being the closest. I'm sure it changed the votes of some, and possibly the votes of people who just heard about it. It would have had to change the votes of around 70,000 people statewide to affect the election. (Clark county only had 68,000 voters, regardless of their total population, but they did have a very good turnout - 76.7% of all registered voters voted).

I think it's more likely that a good economy in 2000 inflated Gore's results than British letters suddenly changed the county to staunch Republicans.

http://www.co.clark.oh.us/boe/results.txt
 
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You're probably right, BobG - I realize Bush's margin of victory was 140,000+. How much of that was due to The Guardian's campaign? I don't know - but the chance that The Guardian had a big effect is an entertaining possibility.
 
Entertaining to some, infuriating to others...
 
Gokul43201 said:
Entertaining to some, infuriating to others...
Same diff - or rather, doubly-entertaining. :biggrin:
 
Eventually, I thought about the comment I had made about the incredibly high percentage of registered voters that turned out and decided I had to check something out.

About 14 counties total surrounding Clark (and including Clark) had very high turnouts compared to the state as a whole with Bush being the main benefactor (how many votes gained since 2000 elections). Since those are added, you can't really take those away and give them to Kerry. I doubt the letters actually changed very many minds.

Still, that makes a pretty big difference. I think it's plausible the Guardian article may have increased voter turnout by about 10% and added about 48,000 votes to Bush's margin by bringing out more Republican voters. Not enough to change the outcome (unless the provisional votes break very, very heavily in favor of Kerry), but pretty impressive, none the less.

Probably more heartbreaking for a couple of the other Democrats running. While heavily Republican, usually a couple of Dems win in those areas.
 
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