MIT researchers forecast "global economic collapse" by 2030

Greg Bernhardt

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow...190352944.html


Anything we don't already know? Can anyone find the actual study?

Evo

The only study I can find is the one from 1972.

Astronuc

A lot of folks are citing the Yahoo article.

There is no press release or report on the MIT Sloan site. I'll wait to read the report. It would help to know the authors or the title.
http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/press-releases.php

I did find: http://www.inquisitr.com/215867/glob...pression-2030/

Beside the Limits of Growth report in 1972, there was apparently an update in 2002, and it appears the MIT study may be a 40 year update.

http://www.clubofrome.at/archive/limits.html
Synopsis of Limits to Growth - The 30 Year Update
http://www.clubofrome.at/archive/pdf/limits.pdf

Evo

Yeah, that's the same stuff I found, nothing recent. Odd.

Useful nucleus

They edited the yahoo article and added:

Correction: This post has been edited to reflect that MIT has not updated its research from the original 1972 study.

Evo

BUWAHAHA!!! What idiot made that mistake?

russ_watters

If the graph in the Smithsonian link are what Turner put together and bases his conclusion that the 1972 study is on track, it looks to me like he couldn't be much wronger on most:

Non-renewable resources: Original prediction shows a steeply accelerating drop and the actual curve barely deviates from linear.

Food per capita: Prediction was that it is leveling off and instead it is increasing sharply and roughly linearly.

Services per capita: Not sure what that one means, but it is actually fairly close to the prediction -- but the curve isn't smooth.

Population: Close to the prediction.

Industrial output: Not smooth, but slightly below prediction.

Pollution output: Curves overlap at the start of the prediction, but toward the end the prediction increases sharply while the actual output does not. Looks like the prediction is exponential pollution growth while the actual is a linear to slight flattening of growth.

See, the problem with comparing exponential curves and linear ones over short timeframes is they can appear to overlap for a while when in actuality the deviation is constantly increasing.

Astronuc

Well - they changed the story.

They also removed the reference to the Forrester Institute.

Evo

I wonder if that Yahoo "reporter" is in hiding now?

Greg Bernhardt

Wow, I'm going to do the right thing here and lock my own thread lol :D