Aviation future

Andre

In another thread we talked about converting to a durable economy that is not dependent on fossil fuel. Now flexibility on energy and mobility seem to be inverse proportional. In static plants you can use anything that's available. Cars are more limited although there is still a range of possible energy sources (gaz, gaseous, electrical). Aviation however seems to be fully dependent on liquid fuel.

Some remarks:

Soving this issue seems to be an essential mission and the first to do that has excellent chances for a lead position in the future.

So are there devellopments in this direction. Any thoughts?

FredGarvin

In terms of propulsion, the alternative fuel sources just are not there yet. So the direction has been and will be for quite some time, to get lighter and more efficient. The next big thing is the use of ceramics into what used to be metallic components. New sweep designs for blades is also helping the overall efficiencies. As far as synthetic fuels are concerned, the price per gallon is definitely cost prohibitive at this point.

Andre

Problem is that when peak oil production is reached, fossil fuel will get cost prohibitive too very soon.

wolram

Maybe the problem is that people "have" to be at certain places
at certain times, that is what guzzles un renewable fuel, in the years
before aviation sailing vessels took months to reach there destination,
so is it not our lifestyle becoming more and more hectic that is at
fault, so chill out and catch the next Super blimp and allow an extra
couple of days to your business, holiday trip.

Francis M

Maybe what we need to do is start by converting the easier stuff over to alternative energy sources. Thereby leaving more fossil fuels for the less easily convertible vehicles. Then perhaps as the alternative fuel/energy technology becomes more developed it becomes cheaper, more versatile and then gets implemented on the harder to convert stuff.

cronxeh

I think in terms of propulsion the only alternative for fighter jets and supersonics and space shuttles would be EM-based 'miracle' of some sort.

As far as petrochemical industry is concerned - they'll never go away. Oil is a hydrocarbon and we need oil to simply survive and sustain our organic heritage. From drugs to foods to nylon to polymers - we need the benzin rings and aromatics and the whole nine yards.

For big aviation - jumbo jets and so on - the alternative might become bubble-based fusion propeller-driven system. Its never going to be supersonic, but then again I dont think I'd want to fly supersonic in a jumbo jet.. its just never going to be safe. Going at 0.8 M is good enough for almost anyone.

Another alternative is hydrogen fuel.. this would be the best alternative since most of the universe is hydrogen.. and if we run out of it we can always "make more" through nuclear means.

FredGarvin

Aviation is just like anything else in this world. It is driven by the economy. The nanosecond it becomes cost prohibitive to do something one way, it gets changed. Plain and simple. Until this, what I call fictious, day of "peak oil" arrives, small steps will continue to happen like they are now.

cronxeh

It is plausible we will be living in another ice age before we run out of oil, and THEN we'll expend the oil reserves at exponential rate.

oldunion

i definately see the materials of the aircraft changing. Carbon fiber, new alloys, ceramics.

Now bear in mind that the plane is already developed. But back in the day (1911?) planes were just made, think of long it took to make them commerically useful and how much time was spent prior on fool's errands that never worked.

If the next energy source will fit in a plane, then fine. But something tells me we will have to wait for new technologies to go with the new propulsion systems.

ohwilleke

Short answer:

Aviation fuel is 1% of consumption. Fuel is 14% of airline costs. And, in Europe, the tax portion of fuel is a big part of the total cost, so prices don't fluxuate as rapidly in response to oil price hikes. An increase of oil prices from the current $50 a barrel to $400 a barrel would double the cost of an airline ticket. (By comparison, a passenger car now costs about $20,000 for a midrange model with lifetime fuel costs of ca. $10,000 at $2 a gallon, but at $16 a gallon, the car would still cost $20,000, but the fuel would cost $80,000, increasing the total cost of driving a car three fold plus, with an even bigger impact for freight trucks). Business travel and the rich leisure traveler would absorb this (and perhaps put up with coach class seating). Leisure travel by the middle class would fall off.

There would be far more impact in freight and leisure traffic, which would switch to far more fuel efficient rail and seaborn approaches for medium and long haul distances, and could use electric vehicles (which don't make sense now, but would if oil prices went up eight fold) for local transporation (they perform equally well, but cost a bit more for the vehicle (maybe 50%) which would come down in mass production-- fuel is already cheaper-- and they have limited range ca. 80-120 miles, which is fine for short haul trips).

If oil was gone, biofuels could replace the entire demand of the aviation sector which would be somewhat smaller that the current aviation sector at those prices. (Indeed, as long as oil became more expensive than biofuels, biofuels would replace mineral oil entirely). Rape seed oil can't easily supply all current fossil fuel demands, but it could meet the aviation sector's demands which are so small compared to total oil demand.

Note also, that it doesn't even matter if biofuels are negative energy products (as critics, probably incorrectly, claim). The point of using biofuels for aviation is to convert energy you can easily produce with alternatives for electricity, into a liquid fuel that doesn't have good alternatives.

Of course, there would also be more of an incentive to make planes more fuel efficient per passenger, if prices went up. Sending your luggage ahead by rail, for instance, while you fly, would probably become more common, in addition to more cramped business class seating.

Astronuc

The key to fuel is "available energy per unit mass" of the fuel itself and of the chemcial-to-mechanical conversion system. That makes it hard to replace current fossil fuel based aviation with alternatives.

Solar Powered aircraft and terrestrial vehicles have been developed. However the specific energy of such systems is low compared to fossil fuel systems.

In fixed power plants, mass is not so much an issue. One does not worry about moving the fixed mass. Mass is a technical and economic constraint in propulsive systems.

As for fossil fuel based propulsive systems (alternatives are discussed in another thread), a by-product of the hydrogen economy would be continued, but limited reliability on fossil fuels. Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis is one possiblity to recycle CO₂. Of course, economics will dictate how this would be implemented.

physicsCU

As far as space applications go, they hardly use fossil fuels for that. Commonly we see solid chemicals or liquified gases used as propulsion. Also, hybrid rockets are coming into their own.

However, from what I read, aviation fuel can be converted to a non fossil fuel. I wonder if hydrogen could be a possibility? Probably not, but it is an interesting idea.

But I think converting aviation fuel and other high octane fuels should be put off since those are in use much less than fuel for cars, trucks, oil for engines, etc.

gschjetne

I'd say we stop using liquid fossile fuel down on the ground, and leaves it to the aviation business instead, if we can come up with good, convenient alternatives.

When it comes to saving fuel in the aviation business I'd introduce propeller-driven stirling-powered airliners. Not everybody needs to go at Mach .8 all the time. And this might also open up for more comfort instead. Plus, a stirling could burn Jet fuel, just like a turboprop or jet, only being more efficient, especially at altitude, with the increased temperature delta in the cold air.

Also, how feasable is it to power an axial compressor using a well-balanced stirling? Could this make a new efficient jet-like design? Kind of how recip engines power jetskis.

physicsCU

Propellor driven is a bad idea. You cannot go as high, meaning that your max altitude, where it is best for fuel economy, is in areas of high turbulence. Jet engines can fly higher than any propellor. It is the inherent nature of the two, no matter the fuel being used.

It also represents a step backward in aviation technology, and you will see the downfall of the industry if you try to use props again.

lengould

With 3.5 times more energy per kg than jet fuel, liquid hydrogen should be the perfect aviation fuel, and likely very soon will be given recent steep increases in petroleum. Only remains to come up with an economic source, although already a couple of methods of production are very close to competing on a Joule/$ basis. An aircraft is an ideal use of liquid hydrogen fuel (much better than autos) as it is easy to plan it's refueling on a schedule which enables total fuel use without any need to vent gas to cool the tanks. (eg. only problem with venting vapour from liquid H2 tanks in autos is after 2 days of not running which rarely if ever happens to an aircraft). And with modern composites, designing safe lightweight low pressure cryo-tanks should only be a matter of someone requesting it.

physicsCU

I totally agree about hydrogen, glad to hear some facts.

ohwilleke

My concern about liquid hydrogen as aviation fuel would be the impact of the fuel tanks. The tanks would be larger and a larger share of the total fuel and fuel storage system mass than current aviation fuels, and would reduce the effective energy/mass ratios from the theoretical maximum by quite a bit.

Also, I would suspect that producing liquid hydrogen from a non-fossil fuel source (like electrolisis) would be significantly more expensive than making a biofuel based aviation fuel, and simply liquifying hydrogen using current technology is quite energy intensive.

From: http://www.almc.army.mil/alog/issues/MayJun00/MS492.htm

More numbers of the tank weight and volume issue can be found here:
http://planetforlife.com/h2/h2swiss.html

And more here:

From: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/es/etb/ctfca/...20Biomass.html

If hydrogen has three times as much energy per mass, but the combined fuel+tank weight for liquid hydrogen is ten times a great per kilogram of liquid hydrogen as it is per kilogram of jet fuel, then using liquid hydrogen cuts the range of your aircraft to about a third of the range of existing aircraft.