The discussion centers on the accuracy of guesses in the context of statistical probabilities. Participants clarify that statistical probabilities are not observer-dependent and emphasize that there are multiple outcomes rather than a singular outcome. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding the underlying probability distribution in mathematical probability, which is not inherently 'law-like.' The conclusion drawn is that the accuracy of a guess cannot be definitively quantified.
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Originally posted by HallsofIvy
First, I have absolutely no idea what you mean by "Statistical Probabilities". Are there other kinds of probabilities?
Second, I have no idea where you got the idea that, in any kind of probability, "the outcome is intepreted as a fundamental 'Law like' process. "
For one thing, there are usually many "outcomes" not "the outcome". Also, in mathematical probablility, we are typically "given" the underlying probability distribution but I would not call that 'Law like'.
If that is what you are talking about, then, no, it is not "observer dependent". Of course, when you are applying a mathematical model to a statistical problem, you might approximate the given distribution by one based on observation.
Finally, it's impossible to say how "accurate" a "guess" is.