What is the probability of inaccessible items being needed in a day/month/year?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the probability of inaccessible items being needed from a large inventory of items in a building. Participants explore the implications of item accessibility and sampling methods over different time frames (daily, monthly, yearly).

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Technical explanation, Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a scenario involving 2,000,000 items, with 15,000 items shipped daily and 1,062 items deemed inaccessible from a subset of 35,400 items stored in potentially problematic locations.
  • Another participant expresses confusion regarding the phrasing of the problem, particularly the relationship between the total items and those in specific locations.
  • A clarification is provided that the 1,062 inaccessible items represent 3% of the 35,400 items stored in locations that may become inaccessible, emphasizing the need to calculate probabilities based on this sampling.
  • Mathematical reasoning is applied to estimate that approximately 265.5 items from the 35,400 will be included in the daily shipments, leading to an estimate of about 8 inaccessible items being shipped daily.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express varying levels of understanding regarding the initial problem statement, and while some calculations are presented, there is no consensus on the overall approach or final probability estimation.

Contextual Notes

Some assumptions regarding the uniformity of item necessity and the randomness of item selection are implied but not explicitly stated. The calculations depend on the interpretation of the initial problem and the definitions of accessibility.

reefland
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I have a building with 2,000,000 items in it. Of those 2,000,000 items about 15,000 are shipped everyday. There are locations in the building which contain 35,400 items, 1,062 cannot be reached. How do I determine the probability of these 1,062 items being needed (assuming all 2,000,000 items are needed equally) in a day/month/year?
 
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I don't understand this:
"There are locations in the building which contain 35,400 items, 1,062 cannot be reached."

I could understand if it were just that 1062 of the 2,000,000 items could not be reached but what does "there are locations in the building which contain 35,400 items" mean?
 
Of the 2,000,000 items in the building, there are 35,400 items stored in locations that may become inaccessible (items falling to the floor, etc.) and through random sampling of these locations, it was determined the 1,062 (or 3%) of these 35,400 fall to the floor.

Just to clarify further, of the 2,000,000 items, 35,400 of them are stored in locations and have the potential to become inaccessible. Our current sample shows that 1,062 of them are in fact inaccessible. I think we are looking for N of A Given B:
B = based on 15,000 items picked per day, how many of them will be in the 35,400
A = based on B, how many of these items will be of the 1,062 that are inaccessible.
 
reefland said:
B = based on 15,000 items picked per day, how many of them will be in the 35,400
A = based on B, how many of these items will be of the 1,062 that are inaccessible.

15,000 * 35,400 / 2,000,000 = 265.5

So, 265.5 items will be in the 35,400

And about 8 (3%) will be inaccessible.
 

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