Probability of Low Grade Gas Shipment from Two Plants

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Homework Help Overview

The problem involves determining the probability of low-grade gasoline shipments produced by two plants, A and B, which are modeled as continuous random variables with specified probability density functions. The classification of gasoline as low-grade or high-grade is based on the octane rating.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Mathematical reasoning, Assumption checking

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • The original poster attempts to calculate the probability of low-grade gasoline and the conditional probability of its source plant. Some participants question the integration approach needed for the probability calculations.

Discussion Status

The discussion is ongoing, with participants clarifying the integration process required for the probability density functions and addressing potential typographical errors in notation. There is no explicit consensus yet on the correctness of the calculations presented.

Contextual Notes

Participants are working under the assumption that the probabilities from both plants are equally likely, and there is a focus on ensuring the correct application of integration for continuous random variables.

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I've been working on a problem and was wondering if someone could check and see if I am on the right track.

A company produces gas from two plants, A and B. (both are considered to be continuous randm variables; X and Y respectively)

For Plant A, its probability density function is:

f(x) = 0.005(x-80) for 80<x<100
0 otherwise

For plant B, it's probability denisity function is:

f(y) = 0.02(y-80) for 80<y<90

r is the octane rating of the gasoline and the gas is:

low grade if r<85
High grade if r>=85

There is an equal probability that the gas was produced at plant A or plant B.

a. What is the probability that today's shipment is low grade?
b. If it is low grade what is the probabiliy that it came from plant A?

Here are my answers:

a. f(x) = .0615 (for r<85)
f(y) = .25 (r<85)
The probability that it is low grade is f(x) +f(y) = .3125

b. P(A|(r<85))

P(A) = 1/2
P(r<85) = .3125

P(A|r<85) = P(A and r<85)/P(r<85) = I don't know if this is the right set up for this portion of the problem

Thanks for the help!
 
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To find low grade probability aren't you supposed to be integrating f(x) and f(y) over 0 < r < 85?
 
I am sorry I did not note that I performed the necessary integration for f(x) and f(y) to determine their respective values.
 
So you mistyped F(.) as f(.)? E.g. Fx(85) = [itex]\int_0^{85}f_x(x)dx[/itex] = .0615?
 

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