Recent content by Aetius

Are you sure, Klaas? i say this because the only thing that a moving average (exponential and simple) does is giving more weight to the last values, because Lambda does change -as does in the real world- because the number of accidents occur randomly. Think now that instead of accidents, we are...

Actually, in general you confirmed what I thought. Something I left out is that, in order to improve the relevance of Lambda I would apply the exponential moving averages technique. I am thinking that the ideal procedure would be to take, say the previous 10 days and apply EMA to it. How does...

What is the best procedure to determine Lambda to calculate the Poisson probability? Say I want to calculate P(X ≥1) of an accident occurring next day. For this I would calculate the average of daily accidents and divide it by 10. The question is, should I take the previous 10 days? Or calculate...