Go over this a few times and see if it still makes sense to you. You're saying you'd be a fool to part with a lottery ticket that only has a 1/1,000,000 chance of being a winner.
caprirs302, you are again glossing over points made and questions asked. Are you the least bit interested in having your point of view changed or do you just not want to admit your wrong and have this score settled you mentioned in the OP?
At least answer to post # 24.
That's right. Because...
In case you don't understand what Whatever123 is saying, I'll break it down a little.
When you choose one card from a deck, you don't only have a 1/52 chance of it being the Ace of Spades, you also have a 1/52 chance of it being the Ace of Hearts, the Ace of Clubs, etc. If you remove one card...
If he doesn't get a chance to switch, you're saying he will most likely lose because his probability is still 1/26. If he is given the choice to switch and keeps his case, he has an awesome chance of winning- 1/2? Please explain this.
Post edited. I meant to write "1/2", not "1/3".
Will you explain how changing your guess changes the frequency in which your card will be the Ace of Spades?
Every time one of the three cards is removed and it's not the Ace of Spades, your probability of having the Ace of Spades increased...
You use that information to recalculate your odds.
Not if the other 51 cards are not the Ace of Spades. Then your probability of having the Ace of spades is 1/1.
It depends on what you see after each flip. Every time it's not the Ace of Spades, your odds just got a little better. I already...
Exactly! Because the Ace didn't come out those times, your odds improve.
You said this in your OP:
The odds really improved because Howie didn't reveal a million dollar case!
This is irrelevant to every scenario you posted. You brought up scenarios in what the probability would be if the...
It doesn't just simply delay the game; it provides new information. If we flip over the first card and it's the Ace of Spades, the game is over. If it's not, your chances of winning just got a little better. If we flip over 50 of them and none of them were the Ace of Spades, you wouldn't be...
caprirs302, you are ignoring questions asked and points made and don't seem a bit interested in having your point of view changed. I'll play along a little longer and see if you're open to actually having a discussion and not just waving away any explanations that don't support your conclusion...
It's you that missed Whatever123's point. If your probability stays the same no matter how many cases are revealed, then by your own logic if it were to get narrowed down to one box, your probability of winning $1,000,000 is 1/26. You realize this is incorrect, right?
Sure they do. Howie may not be a mathematician, but a major network isn't going to get simple probability like this wrong and embarrass themselves.
I Googled "Deal or no deal" probability. The following came form the second hit...
Why doesn't it make sense to ask what is happening in reality? Let's say I shoot off a model rocket. For an outside observer, it may seem like either the rocket is moving away from the Earth or the Earth is moving away from the rocket (depending on if the observer is moving in relation to the...
I'm doing no such thing! I'm not talking about reference frames at all. I'm asking if according to GR, both statements that I posted in the OP are true. As in actually true, not whether or not is can seem like either reality is equally valid.
The Earth is in an elliptical orbit around our...