Thanks. I don't suppose you know of a good reference which explains this in simple terms? I would like to learn to do these calculations myself and understand why it works, but when I Googled the terms you use, the results were a little intimidating.
Possible answer to my second question.
If the probability of failure is 5%, then the probability of passing 20 times is 0.95^20 = 0.36. So we can say we are 64% confident the probability of success is 95% or higher.
If the probability of success is X, and it passes N=20 tests without failing...
I am writing a report for my boss quoting the success rates for tests of various components. If something works 19 times out of twenty, then it's 95%. But what is the uncertainty on this? 95% +/- ?
And if a component passes every test (100%), what is the lower limit on the actual rate? How many...
I have a question which puzzled me when I was reading up about auroras. When talking about the interaction of the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field, the book said that "particles are accelerated along magnetic field lines towards the earth"
That didn’t sound quite right, as I was taught...
I'm a mediocre physicist and aspiring science writer. Here to ask questions on bits of physics that bug me. And, who knows, I might be able to answer some that other people ask.