Astronuc,
Your reply was very succinct and clear, but, like any good politician, you did not answer the question, and neither do any of the references you cited.
So let me rephrase:Have any high quality simulations been done for ITER that demonstrate whether it can meet or exceed break-even?
How effective is simulation in fusion research? Many years ago i designed simulators for fission reactors and they were extremely accurate, sometimes approaching 1% accuracy in terms of core behaviour. It seems to me that it should be possible to determine whether ITER can exceed breakeven, for...