How are my chances for graduate school in math?

[alligatorman]

I'm a senior planning on going to graduate school for math. I'll take a year off and apply next year. I decided all of this kind of at the last minute, and as a result, my application is looking a little weak:

Projected GPA: ~3.7
Projected Math GPA: ~3.62 (not including Calc 1,2,3 and Diff Eq)

In order, my courses and grades are as follows:

Core courses:
Calc 1, 2, 3, Diff. Eq.: A
Numbers & Polynomials (proofs): A
Linear Algebra: A
Abstract Algebra: C
Advanced Calculus 1: C+
Advanced Calculus 2: B+

Electives
Combinatorics 1: B+
Functions of a Complex Variable: B+
Geometry: A

This Semester (projected grades)
Topology 1: A
Graduate Level Modern Analysis 1: A
Graduate Level Algebra 1: B+ (A is possible)

Final Semester (hopeful grades)
Topology 2: A
Graduate Level Modern Analysis 2: A
Combinatorics 2: A

I am working on an Honors Thesis with a professor. It is research-esque. I'm not counting on any publications, but I am counting on an excellent recommendation letter. I can get two more decent letters from other professors.

Hopefully I can pull off two great GRE scores.

Notable weaknesses:
Low GPA. In Particular, the C and C+ in Algebra and Adv. Calc. (hence the two grad courses)
No number theory (The course is very elementary. I know most of it. It's offered during Combinatorics, which is my primary interest)
No extensive research experience.
Too many B+'s, not enough A's. (I think so, at least.)


I'm feeling overly pessimistic. I'm looking at schools in the Top 20-40, but don't expect to get into anything, and I probably will not go to grad school if the only schools that accept me are very low tier.

What do you guys think my chances are looking like?

Thanks!