The numbers thread [Archive]

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 09:21 AM

Feel free to post any pre-election polls, exit polls, opinion polls, market prices or counting results as they come in.

Here are some links to get you going :

Electoral Votes - a compilation from various sources (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

The Iowa Electronic Market history (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm) and current quotes (http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html)

Projections will be made over the evening and night by CNN (http://www.cnn.com/), NBC (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6364287/), FOX (http://www.foxnews.com/), and others.

kat

Nov2-04, 09:29 AM

Here's a link for a nifty excel spreadsheet that serves as an Interactive Election Night Viewing Guide. (http://www.federalreview.com/2004_10_31_blogarchive.htm)

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 09:47 AM

Here are various current numbers :

Iowa Markets : Kerry = $0.503, Bush = $0.509

Some of the "Battleground States" :

1. NH (4) : Too close to call. K47, B47, N2 (Amer. Res. Gr., Oct 30)

2. PA (21) : Most polls (http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.html) have K up by 2 to 6, except Gallup, which has B up by 2

3. FL (27) : Too close to call (http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html). Polls are calling it both ways. Gallup and Zogby give K a lead, while Rasmussen and Strategic Vision are calling it for B.

4. OH (20) : [http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html] Too close to call[/url]. Gallup calling it for K and Zogby, for B (Oct 31).

5. Colorado (9 or 4&5 ) : Too close to call, unless Amendment 36 passes. Zogby (Oct 31) has B up by 1 (B48, K47) statewide.

6. NM (5) : Too close to call. Zogby (Oct 31) has both at 49.

7. HI (4) : B46, K45 as of Oct 20, SMS Research Poll. Large number of undesideds as of that date.

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 11:41 AM

Here's a link for a nifty excel spreadsheet that serves as an Interactive Election Night Viewing Guide. (http://www.federalreview.com/2004_10_31_blogarchive.htm)

I've got my own little spreadsheet that I made this morning...nothing fancy, but it'll help me keep score.

kat

Nov2-04, 12:41 PM

Election hopes spark health stock rally (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0F1B48A4%2D9C92%2D45D2%2DAC76%2D 0417048569BD%7D&siteid=mktw)
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- An Election Day health-sector rally Tuesday could be tied to hopes that a perceived "market-friendly" President Bush will keep his job, plus renewed investor optimism over some key health-care firms.

kat

Nov2-04, 12:49 PM

Early voting here: 2-1 edge for Bush (Lancaster county, PA) (http://www.lancasteronline.com/pages/news/local/4/9483)

marlon

Nov2-04, 01:03 PM

I wanna bet for a Bush-victory...

marlon

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 04:57 PM

Iowa Electronic Markets : Kerry = $0.578, Bush = $0.401

ARE YOU KIDDING ME ?????!!!!! :surprised:

marlon

Nov2-04, 05:31 PM

ok, let's bet for a Kerry victory....lol

marlon

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 06:05 PM

Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia are called for Bush (34)
Vermont in Kerry's (3)

Viginia and S. Carolina have closed but not yet called.

So, no surprises yet, except perhaps that they need more time to call SC :smile:

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 06:32 PM

WVa called for Bush

SCORE : B = 39, K = 3

Ohio, NC, SC, VA are too early to call

BobG

Nov2-04, 06:35 PM

Most significant number so far is the exit polling question. As expected, Kerry is carrying the majority of last minute deciders. Tends to support the idea a lot of 'experts' have that the challenger picks up the majority of the undecided.

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 07:05 PM

More states have been called. The winners...

Kerry : VT, MA, CT, DE, DC, MD, IL and (surprise !) NJ (which was expected to be close)
Bush : IN, WV, KY, GA, TN, AL, OK (no surprises here)

SCORE : Kerry 77, Bush 66

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 07:19 PM

I'm ready (the Newsies are still suffering from the disaster of the 2000 projections) to call VA and NC for Bush. SC (surprise) is amazingly close (with 12% reporting) !!

And the first BIG story : Bush has a 10% lead in Florida with about 25% of precincts reporting !!

chroot

Nov2-04, 07:33 PM

:frown:

- Warren

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 07:39 PM

Now, CNN & MSNBC have called VA, NC and SC for Bush.
The score : Bush = 102, Kerry = 77

With 34% reporting in FL, Bush has a 13% lead. Numbers from Palm-Beach, Miami-Dade and Broward are not in yet...and those should close the gap some, but I think Bush will edge through.

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 08:02 PM

Looks to me like Florida will go to Bush, and Pennsylvania to Kerry.

All eyes are on Ohio, which is looking close now (but I'm a little worried, looking at the county numbers :frown:)

More states have been called : ND, SD, KS, NE, WY and TX go to Bush, as expected.

Kerry has NY and (all 4 of) Maine.

Score : Bush = 155, Kerry = 112

graphic7

Nov2-04, 08:16 PM

It was expected that the south and plains states would go for Bush. Remember, Kerry, as projected, is looking good in the North and the west votes aren't in yet.

Evo

Nov2-04, 08:24 PM

Have you looked at the exit polls on CNN?

In the category of "Most Important Issue", moral values is the number one issue with Americans? That's sad.

Moral Values 21%
Economy/Jobs 20%
Terrorism 18%
Iraq 15%
Health Care 8%
Taxes 5%
Education 4%

graphic7

Nov2-04, 08:27 PM

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 08:28 PM

In NY, the #1 issue was Iraq, at 85% !!!

LA and MS have been called for Bush.

Bush = 170, Kerry = 112

graphic7

Nov2-04, 08:32 PM

In NY, the #1 issue was Iraq, at 85% !!!

90 percent of the people that voted for Bush in TN voted for him because of his faith. 80 percent of the people that voted for Kerry in TN voted for his intelligence. Shows which set of voters should be cast off the Earth.

Evo

Nov2-04, 08:35 PM

The Eastern states are the only section where "morals" weren't the number one issue.

Maybe I need to move back east. :grumpy:

Evo

Nov2-04, 08:37 PM

90 percent of the people that voted for Bush in TN voted for him because of his faith. 80 percent of the people that voted for Kerry in TN voted for his intelligence. Shows which set of voters should be cast off the Earth.It does make you wonder, doesn't it?

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 09:09 PM

Now I'm getting worried about Ohio.

kat

Nov2-04, 09:36 PM

very odd and interesting commentary here at the nYT

http://forums.nytimes.com/top/opinion/readersopinions/forums/washington/anelectionnightwebjournal/index.html?oref=login&oref=login

Bush just let a television camera and a “pool” of reporters and photographers into the residential area of the White House, where something absolutely shocking happened.

He pronounced himself confident and predicted he would win.

The point of such a pointless revelation is to buoy the spirits and recharge the resolve of his supporters in western states, where polls are still open.

Much more interesting than his words was his manner. To my eyes, he seemed significantly less rattled than he did around this same time on Election Night four years ago, when I was in the “pool” that went up to see him and his family in the Texas Governor’s mansion. He seemed less uncertain than he did earlier today, when the expressions and words of his aides also seemed shakier than they do now.

I would say that we can conclude, at the least, that Bush has become a better actor. But three positively riveting debates proved that that isn’t the case.

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 09:40 PM

:frown: Things looking very bad for the Dems... Bush is getting FL and OH...MI and WI don't look good either....

...game over ?

klusener

Nov2-04, 09:42 PM

definitely, based on the results right now, if i were JFK, i would be practicing my concession speech just about now.....

klusener

Nov2-04, 09:43 PM

If the goddamn California's evs come in, then Kerry's total would look much better than the 112 now...

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 09:44 PM

california's not enough

klusener

Nov2-04, 09:46 PM

i know, but right now his total looks pathetic...

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 10:00 PM

California to Kerry, Idaho to Bush

SCORE : Bush = 197, Kerry = 188 (too little, too late)

I can't believe these numskulls on CNN and MSNBC who are calling it close.

Kerry needs a miracle to pull it off from here ! :frown:

In OH, Bush has a 4% lead, in FL, he's won, though the newsies won't say it until the last vote is counted there.

klusener

Nov2-04, 10:01 PM

are these predictions?

cnn is giving pennsylvania to kerry..... that's good.

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 10:15 PM

I gave PA to Kerry about an hour ago.

By my numbers Bush has 260 to Kerry's 216. Bush just needs 10 points among the remaining close states on my list (I've given FL and OH to Bush) : NM, NH, NV, HI, CO, IA and AZ. If Bush wins any 10 votes among these states, he's through - piece of cake.

Saint

Nov2-04, 10:23 PM

Bush seems to win the election, he is leading.

Americans were scared by OSAMA to vote Bush,
pity Kerry.

klusener

Nov2-04, 10:33 PM

yeah, it turns out Osama is the October surprise, but in a different way....

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 10:33 PM

Okay folks Fox has called AZ (10) for Bush...now it's officially over for Kerry.

graphic7

Nov2-04, 10:44 PM

FL has also been called for Bush as of now.

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 10:53 PM

Kerry is rallying in Wisconsin and Ohio.

Right now, Kerry is down by about 130K votes in Ohio. Only about 50% of the votes in Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) have been counted, and Kerry has a lead of about 95K votes. Assuming the remaining 50% gives Kerry another 100K, he will be short by only 30K, if the rest of Ohio (some 10% of precincts) goies roughly down the middle.

graphic7

Nov2-04, 10:56 PM

Interesting that CNN hasn't declared FL or AZ, yet. Maybe ABC jumped the gun.

chroot

Nov2-04, 10:56 PM

Even if Kerry wins Ohio, does he still stand a chance?

- Warren

graphic7

Nov2-04, 10:59 PM

If Kerry does win Ohio, he'll be in good shape. If he doesn't, however, he'll have to win every other state, including Alaska, Washington, Colorado, etc which is very unlikely. Keep in mind that CNN hasn't declared Florida yet and there's still 1.1 million provisional ballots floating around.

graphic7

Nov2-04, 11:12 PM

Crap, CNN just declared Florida. Kerry has to win Ohio.

Gokul43201

Nov2-04, 11:22 PM

If Kerry wins Ohio, he's virtually through...but the numbers in Ohio are looking worse than before. I'm going to stick with my earlier prediction that Bush takes Ohio...probably by about 50,000 votes. :frown:

The End(ish)

Moonbear

Nov3-04, 12:20 AM

Yeah, they're now saying Bush is taking OH. 88% reporting and Bush is still in the lead. The only way Kerry can win is if he sweeps every last state remaining, and gets the House vote, and a few of those remaining states are only showing about 100 votes difference (and several thousand going to third party candidates)! I don't think he'll get all of them anyway, so it looks like pretty grim tonight.

Then again, in 2000, this is about the time I went to bed with Gore projected the winner and woke up to find FL had flipped from blue to red overnight, so I'm hoping something miraculous happens overnight, but won't be holding my breath.

All I can say is don't blame me if Bush makes a bigger mess of the country in the next four years, I voted Kerry.

And it's also looking like Congress is going to remain Republican controlled. That's even more painful...I was at the least hoping for a Democrat controlled Congress to keep Bush in check.

I'm heading to bed. This is so depressing. :cry:

Gokul43201

Nov3-04, 01:38 AM

Final Score : B 286, K 252 (just a guess)

Saint

Nov3-04, 02:23 AM

if kerry wins Ohio, is he likely to enter whitehouse?

cragwolf

Nov3-04, 06:01 AM

I'm assuming that OH, NM and IA go to Bush, that seems likely. In that case, I got 3 states wrong: I thought MN, NH and WI would go to Bush. I did recognise prior to the election that MN and NH were my two wildcard predictions, the ones I had least confidence in. WI was very close, it almost went my way. So, in one sense, I'm happy with my predictive skills. In another sense, I'm not, because Bush has been reelected. In yet other sense, it doesn't really matter, because either way, we who are poor, weak and of low intelligence are under the boot of those who are rich, powerful and of high intelligence. Such is the way of the world.

kat

Nov3-04, 07:04 AM

Highest popular vote....ever. Incredible.

graphic7

Nov3-04, 07:47 AM

Highest popular vote....ever. Incredible.

Considering Kerry was 3 million votes shy he's also right behind Bush, shattering the Reagan popular vote count of '84, too.

Gokul43201

Nov3-04, 09:41 AM

The Iowa Markets couldn't have been more wrong ! :grumpy:

russ_watters

Nov3-04, 10:35 AM

Considering Kerry was 3 million votes shy he's also right behind Bush, shattering the Reagan popular vote count of '84, too. Quick question: what was the population of the US in 1984? # of registered voters?

You're rationalizing.

Saint

Nov3-04, 05:43 PM

bush won
kerry lost

cragwolf

Nov3-04, 05:51 PM

The Iowa Markets couldn't have been more wrong ! :grumpy:

Actually, apart from the final 8 volatile hours, they were incredibly accurate. So were the betting markets. In fact, at least one of the betting markets (betfair) managed to correctly predict all of the swing states results (assuming that IA and NM go to Bush). A lot of punters were misled in the final 8 hours by the exit polls.

Saint

Nov3-04, 06:02 PM

Dear Supporter,

Earlier today I spoke to President Bush, and offered him and Laura our congratulations on their victory. We had a good conversation, and we talked about the danger of division in our country and the need, the desperate need, for unity for finding the common ground, coming together. Today, I hope that we can begin the healing.

In America, it is vital that every vote counts, and that every vote be counted. But the outcome should be decided by voters, not a protracted legal process. I would not give up this fight if there was a chance that we would prevail. But it is now clear that even when all the provisional ballots are counted, which they will be, there won't be enough outstanding votes for our campaign to be able to win Ohio. And therefore, we cannot win this election.

It was a privilege and a gift to spend two years traveling this country, coming to know so many of you. I wish I could just wrap you in my arms and embrace each and every one of you individually all across this nation. I thank you from the bottom of my heart. Thank you.

To all of you, my volunteers and online supporters, all across this country who gave so much of themselves, thank you. Thanks to William Field, a six-year-old who collected $680, a quarter and a dollar at a time selling bracelets during the summer to help change America. Thanks to Michael Benson from Florida who I spied in a rope line holding a container of money. It turned out he raided his piggy bank and wanted to contribute. And thanks to Alana Wexler, who at 11 years old and started Kids for Kerry.

I thank all of you, who took time to travel, time off from work, and their own vacation time to work in states far and wide. You braved the hot days of summer and the cold days of the fall and the winter to knock on doors because you were determined to open the doors of opportunity to all Americans. You worked your hearts out, and I say, don't lose faith. What you did made a difference, and building on itself, we will go on to make a difference another day. I promise you, that time will come -- the election will come when your work and your ballots will change the world, and it's worth fighting for.

I'm proud of what we stood for in this campaign, and of what we accomplished. When we began, no one thought it was possible to even make this a close race, but we stood for real change, change that would make a real difference in the life of our nation, the lives of our families, and we defined that choice to America. I'll never forget the wonderful people who came to our rallies, who stood in our rope lines, who put their hopes in our hands, who invested in each and every one of us. I saw in them the truth that America is not only great, but it is good.

So here -- with a grateful heart, I leave this campaign with a prayer that has even greater meaning to me now that I've come to know our vast country so much better and that prayer is very simple: God bless America.

Thank you,

John Kerry

John Kerry

Saint

Nov3-04, 06:40 PM

why bush can win?
why?
due to OSAMA ?

selfAdjoint

Nov3-04, 09:38 PM

I think the deciding factor was gay marriage and the effort to remove "under God" from the pledge of allegiance. This scared the group of ordinary citizens who believe in cultural stability above all things to get out and vote. Kerry was beaten because every voter he added due to hatred of Bush was matched and more by a pro-Bush voter added by social concerns.

So many of the things that concerned us chatterers just went by the regular folks, not because they're dumb but because political debate bores them to death. They have better things to think about, like the World Series, and Fall fashions, and layoffs at work (not connected to politics in thei minds).

Deaths in Iraq? Too bad, "Gotta stay the course".
Bush's IQ? "He's a straight shooter".
Bush's Air National Guard record? "He turned his life around".

On the other hand, Kerry could never shake the anti-war, and anti-service man role he was identified with back in the 70s. The Republicans ensured that those memories stayed fresh (as they were quite entitled to do). The Democratic elite, nearly all old war protesters themselves, didn't realize that still today, that stuff plays real sour in the midlands.

And so on.

Evo

Nov3-04, 10:00 PM

russ_watters

Nov3-04, 10:04 PM

On the other hand, Kerry could never shake the anti-war, and anti-service man role he was identified with back in the 70s.... The Democratic elite, nearly all old war protesters themselves, didn't realize that still today, that stuff plays real sour in the midlands. I agree with your analysis, but want to highlight this. As I have said, I consider that Kerry's biggest miscalculation. It was a mistake to make it the centerpiece of the convention, and a mistake to not distance himself from...well....himself once the SBV thing came out. And he also missed the point of the SBV thing: no one cared about his purple hearts - that was just an excuse to keep Vietnam on the front-burner.

Gokul43201

Nov3-04, 11:57 PM

It was a mistake to make it [his Vietnam service] the centerpiece of the convention, and a mistake to not distance himself from...well....himself once the SBV thing came out. And he also missed the point of the SBV thing: no one cared about his purple hearts - that was just an excuse to keep Vietnam on the front-burner.

Guess how many times Kerry mentioned his Purple Hearts during the Convention ?

As for talking about his Vietnam service during the convention...here are the excerpts of his speech that are (in any way) related to his service.

And in this journey, I am accompanied by an extraordinary band of brothers led by that American hero, a patriot named Max Cleland. Our band of brothers doesn't march together because of who we are as veterans, but because of what we learned as soldiers. We fought for this nation because we loved it and we came back with the deep belief that every day is extra. We may be a little older now, we may be a little grayer, but we still know how to fight for our country.
...
I know what kids go through when they are carrying an M-16 in a dangerous place and they can't tell friend from foe. I know what they go through when they're out on patrol at night and they don't know what's coming around the next bend. I know what it's like to write letters home telling your family that everything's all right when you're not sure that's true.
...
I defended this country as a young man and I will defend it as President.
...
You see that flag up there. We call her Old Glory. The stars and stripes forever. I fought under that flag, as did so many of you here and all across our country. That flag flew from the gun turret right behind my head. It was shot through and through and tattered, but it never ceased to wave in the wind. It draped the caskets of men I served with and friends I grew up with. For us, that flag is the most powerful symbol of who we are and what we believe in. Our strength. Our diversity. Our love of country. All that makes America both great and good.

Less than 2 minutes of the 50 minute speech was devoted to talking about his service.

Saint

Nov4-04, 12:15 AM

So, americans will expect more Terrorists attacks, more death toll in Iraq, more joblessness, more taxes, more insecurity ?

Gokul43201

Nov4-04, 12:27 AM

No, except for the death toll.

What's your point ?

Saint

Nov4-04, 12:46 AM

what is bush's plan to Solve the problem of iraq?
how long your army will be there?
till you get all their oil ?

chroot

Nov4-04, 12:50 AM

This is off-topic, Saint. Again. If you'd like me to split it to a new thread, let me know.

- Warren

Saint

Nov4-04, 03:00 AM

America can never be World Police,
if you interfere with people's domestic affair more,
you will get more retaliation.

Don't try to split Taiwan from China,
if you continue to sell Taiwan weapon,
China will fight back with stealing more jobs from america.
Don't always critisize china's human right record,
take a look of your own policy on the black people, are they treated fairly?

Imperialism is not fit for all people, China has its own policy, culture, value etc.
Try to understand Islam first before calling people terrorists.

Osama is not dead, he is watching you!!!!

Gokul43201

Nov4-04, 08:58 AM

Saint, if you want to rant, start your own thread. (I say this knowing it will be ignored)

I've come across a strartling statistic (calling it a statistic is a stretch, I've only got 5 data points out of thousands), and call me cynical, or a sore loser, or whatever, but :

In Columbus, Ohio, the number of polling machines per polling place seems to vary directly with the distance to campus or inner city neighborhoods.

My advisor's polling place (in a largely red precinct) had 10 polling machines. The queue never extended outside the building.

Near campus, polling places had 6, 6 and 5 machines in 3 different places. Lines often stretched around the block.

One downtown location had only 3 machines, and this place had to stay open beyond closing time.

Now I'm curious about the number of polling machines per voter at different polling places in medium/large cities....

Anyone else have numbers for me ?

russ_watters

Nov4-04, 12:37 PM

Guess how many times Kerry mentioned his Purple Hearts during the Convention ? You missed my point. The SBV brought up the purple heart thing because it was something to argue about. But to people who cared about the issue (me), it wasn't the purple hearts that mattered, it was what he did after the war. Kerry didn't realize that and focused his rebuttal on the medals issue. In fairness though, there wasn't much Kerry could have done to convince me he'd changed from the man he was shortly after Vietnam (and indeed, he may well be proud of that). As for talking about his Vietnam service during the convention...here are the excerpts of his speech that are (in any way) related to his service. His speech was a long speech. He had a lot to talk about. But his first words were "Reporting for duty" and behind him was a 10 foot photo of him in his uniform (which was there for most of the convention). His service was also mentioned by pretty much everyone else who spoke, and made-up a significant portion of his biography on his site.

His Vietnam service was an important issue and he knew it - he just didn't understand why. He thought it would give him credibility as a military leader (something democrats typically lack), but what he should have known is that the very people he would lead considered it to be a slap in the face.Now I'm curious about the number of polling machines per voter at different polling places in medium/large cities. I assume there are state laws regarding registered voters per machine, but I don't know -- interesting question though.

I've got some responses for Saint too, but they're OT, so....no.