Probability of Winning and Losing in a 3-Round Game

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating probabilities in a three-round game between two teams, A and B, with specified winning probabilities. Participants explore various methods to solve the problem, including rook diagrams and probability rules, while addressing questions of independence and dependence of events.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant asks for help in solving the probability questions related to winning and losing in a three-round game.
  • Another participant questions whether the events are independent or dependent, suggesting that this affects the calculations.
  • A participant proposes that the probabilities of winning for A and B can be combined, leading to a probability of no wins at 0.1 for each round.
  • Some participants suggest that a draw should be considered in the second and third questions, raising concerns about how multiple rounds affect the outcomes.
  • There is a discussion about whether the events of winning or losing are independent, with one participant asserting that they believe the events are independent.
  • Another participant notes potential contradictions in the scenario where both teams lose, questioning the implications of such an outcome.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the independence of events and the implications of draws in the game. There is no consensus on how to approach the calculations or the nature of the events.

Contextual Notes

Participants have not fully resolved the assumptions regarding the independence of events and the implications of multiple rounds on the probability calculations. The discussion includes various interpretations of the problem's conditions.

campa
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Hi,

Can someone please solve this sum either by drawing a rook diagram or any other way

the question goes like: There are two teams A and B. The probability of A winning is 50% and the probability of B winning is 40%. These two teams take part in 3 same rounds.
1) What is the probability of A winning all three rounds?
2) What is the probability of the game ending without any winnings or losing
3)What is the probability of the game ending without two winnings or losing
 
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1) Are these events independent or dependent?
2) Same question.
3) Same question.
 
I think you can write : p(wa)=.5, p(wb)=.4

Then it seems logical to assume either A wins or B wins, but not both (incompatible events)..hence p(wa or wb)=p(wa)+p(wb)=.9=1-p(la and lb)

hence p(la and lb)=.1 so it could be that nobody wins with prob. .1 at each round.

does this help ?
 
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in the second and third questions it should be a draw I guess and but there are three rounds so doesn't that make any difference when solving this problem?
 
campa said:
in the second and third questions it should be a draw I guess and but there are three rounds so doesn't that make any difference when solving this problem?
Yes. You need to find the probability of multiple events occurring together. Are the events independent or dependent? If A winning round 1 and A winning round 2 and A winning round 3 are independent events, the probability of A winning all three rounds is the product of the probability of each event occurring: P(WA) * P(WA) * P(WA).
 
I suppose there are no dependences between rounds...I think the traps were just :

a) it comes out that lose_b and lose_a are dependent
b) if A loses and B loses, then neither wins, but nobody lose which seems contradictory
 
I guess these are independent events. thanks for the help
 

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