Building a better ranking system (probability)

In summary, the conversation discusses four games with different probabilities of winning and a player, referred to as player b, who has won these games with high percentages. The question at hand is what is the probability that a randomly chosen player will have more skill than player b in playing these games. However, it is not clear what is meant by "more skill" as the conversation does not specify a specific criteria for measuring skill.
  • #1
ibn_sina76
1
0
Suppose we have four games and the probability that a player will win the game are as follows:

Game 1: 71%
Game 2: 55%
Game 3: 58%
Game 4: 16%

Suppose player b won these games with the following percentages of time:
Game 1: 100%
Game 2: 96%
Game 3: 87%
Game 4: 67%

In other words, he's a very good player. What is the probability that a player chosen at random will play these games with more skill than player b? A random player will play these games with the same skill as the average player.

I really have no idea where to begin on solving this problem. Any help would be appreciated. For the even more advanced, we can add in draws:Game 1: 71%, draw 9%
Game 2: 55%, draw 8%
Game 3: 58%, draw 6%
Game 4: 16%, draw 3%

Player b:
Game 1: 100% wins, 0% draws
Game 2: 96% wins, 3% draws
Game 3: 87% wins, 3% draws
lGame 4: 67% wins, 6% draws
 
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  • #2
ibn_sina76 said:
What is the probability that a player chosen at random will play these games with more skill than player b?

You must specify what "play these game with more skill means". Are you referring to a contest where the skilled player and the randomly chosen player play each of the 4 games once. What counts as "more skill"? Suppose the randomly chosen player wins 2 games and the skilled player only wins game 1. Do we say the randomly chosen player had "more skill" than the skilled player?
 

1. What is a ranking system?

A ranking system is a method used to order items or individuals based on a specific criteria. It assigns a numerical value or position to each item, allowing for comparison and determination of their relative importance or performance.

2. Why is it important to have a good ranking system?

A good ranking system can help provide valuable insights and information for decision making. It can also help in identifying top performers, areas for improvement, and overall trends within a dataset. Additionally, a fair and accurate ranking system can promote healthy competition and motivation.

3. How is probability used in building a ranking system?

Probability is used in building a ranking system to assign a numerical value or weight to each item based on its likelihood of being ranked higher or lower. It can also be used to determine the probability of an item being ranked within a certain range or percentile.

4. What are some common challenges in building a ranking system?

Some common challenges in building a ranking system include determining the appropriate criteria and weightage for ranking, handling missing or incomplete data, and addressing bias or subjectivity in the ranking process. Other challenges may include scalability, interpretability, and maintaining the accuracy and fairness of the ranking system over time.

5. How can a ranking system be improved?

A ranking system can be improved by regularly reviewing and updating the criteria and weightage used for ranking, as well as incorporating feedback and suggestions from users. It is also important to continuously monitor and evaluate the performance of the ranking system to identify and address any issues or biases that may arise.

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