How many citations to Reuter before yearend?

[marcus]

Kea and I were talking about the latest paper by Reuter and Lauscher, which showed fractal-like spacetime structure at very small scale.

http://www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0508202
Fractal Spacetime Structure in Asymptotically Safe Gravity
O. Lauscher, M. Reuter

It came out a few days ago and already has one citation. How many do you guess it will have by 31 December?

Hi Marcus

I can't imagine how people estimate these things. I really have no idea: but for fun, I'll guess 10, because I like their work.

Kea

I like their work too a whole bunch. I will start a forecast poll thread. I think the choices will be

1 (which they have now, so zero more this year.)
2
3
4 (which I guess, that means three additional citations before yearend)
5
6
over 6 (that would include your guess of ten citations)

 

[marcus]

Keaaaahhh!



thanks. that was quick. now we have two guesses

selfAdjoint said "2 or 3" citations was what he expect. have to see which one he picks as his final choice.

 

[selfAdjoint]

Keaaaahhh!



thanks. that was quick. now we have two guesses

selfAdjoint said "2 or 3" citations was what he expect. have to see which one he picks as his final choice.

Happy now? I went way out on a limb, considering the time frame. You can't just write up a paper on a weekend.

 

[marcus]

Happy now? I went way out on a limb, considering the time frame. You can't just write up a paper on a weekend.

Happy

actually the timeframe worries me too. it is hard to imagine anybody writing another paper and posting it in the remaining two months after the conference, when it has to do with anything as weird as microscopic fractal structure of spacetime

 

[selfAdjoint]

Happy

actually the timeframe worries me too. it is hard to imagine anybody writing another paper and posting it in the remaining two months after the conference, when it has to do with anything as weird as microscopic fractal structure of spacetime

I talked myself into it by imagining competing groups of multiple authors, each with a killer insight, and a lot of cutting and pasting. And I assumed the Distler coup d'etat wouldn't get in the way.

 

[marcus]

After thinking about your reasons and reviewing the situation, I suspect that given the chance I would change my guess to 2. But the rules are you can't change.

Overall I think we have already a fine bunch of predictions! Kea's extravagantly optimistic "7 up" guess puts everyone at their ease, like a gracious hostess at a party. (thinks: after that nothing I say would sound unreasonable.)

To summarize: how many citations will Lauscher/Reuter "Fractal Spacetime Structure" have by year-end?

selfAdjoint predicts 3
Alamino and I predict 4
Spin Network predicts 5
Kea says 7 or more because she likes their work

We check, to find out the winner, any time after 31 December 2005 at either of these addresses:
http://citebase.eprints.org/cgi-bin/citations?id=oai:arXiv.org:hep-th/0508202

http://www.arxiv.org/cits/hep-th/0508202

 

[marcus]

Ohwilleke has contributed his forecast. Here is how things stand:

How many citations will Lauscher/Reuter "Fractal Spacetime Structure" have by year-end?

Ohwilleke predicts 2
selfAdjoint predicts 3
Alamino and I predict 4
Spin Network predicts 5
Kea says 7 or more because she likes their work

We check, to find out the winner, any time after 31 December 2005 at either of these addresses:
http://citebase.eprints.org/cgi-bin/citations?id=oai:arXiv.org:hep-th/0508202

http://www.arxiv.org/cits/hep-th/0508202

=======================

Only two people have registered guesses on the other forecast poll that is open!

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=90199

How many UK downloads before year-end of the Ashtekar-Bojowald "hole-bang" paper? it is a landmark paper: venturing into new territory---but the title is comparatively unevocative. I am curious to know what people guess about the extent it will be read. I have guessed 60-79 UK downloads.