Betting on a Record Cold Winter: What's the Forecast?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around predictions for an unusually cold winter, particularly in the UK, and the basis for these forecasts. Participants explore various sources of information, including betting companies and meteorological predictions, while also referencing past forecasts and their accuracy.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants mention that the British press is forecasting a record cold winter, with betting companies adjusting their odds accordingly.
  • Others point out conflicting predictions, such as a forecast for a mild winter in the U.S., suggesting variability in weather predictions.
  • One participant recalls that similar cold forecasts were made the previous year, which did not materialize, raising questions about the reliability of such predictions.
  • There is mention of the Met Office expressing skepticism about long-range forecasts, citing their historical inaccuracy.
  • Participants discuss the role of energy shortages and power cuts in the context of the cold winter predictions, referencing articles from various sources.
  • Some participants share links to articles, but there is confusion over the dates of these sources, with some being outdated.
  • One participant refers to a specific forecasting tool used for long-term predictions, suggesting it indicates a potential for a cold winter based on current conditions.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus; multiple competing views on the accuracy and reliability of winter forecasts remain, with some expressing skepticism about the predictions while others reference different sources that support the cold winter outlook.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations regarding the timeliness of the sources cited, as some articles referenced are outdated. Additionally, the discussion reflects uncertainty about the methodologies used for long-range weather forecasting.

wolram
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The british press are forcasting a record cold winter, and a major betting
company have slashed the odds for this. what are they basing their predictions
on ?
 
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I have no idea but I just read a prediction that winter in the U.S. will be mild. (http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/10/13/100wir_weather001.cfm )

Of course, we can always turn to the Old Farmer's Almanac! :)
 
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I don't know, but the same was forecast last year, and that didn't really pan out.

Edit- Are you sure you're looking at up to date articles? I did a quick google search, and the only articles I saw were from this time last year. The articles say the forecasts were made by metcheck.com, and the met office didn't hold a lot faith in their predictions, saying that such long range forecasts are exremely inaccurate (as proved by the mild and largely snowless winter that followed).
 
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matthyaouw said:
I don't know, but the same was forecast last year, and that didn't really pan out.
Edit- Are you sure you're looking at up to date articles? I did a quick google search, and the only articles I saw were from this time last year. The articles say the forecasts were made by metcheck.com, and the met office didn't hold a lot faith in their predictions, saying that such long range forecasts are exremely inaccurate (as proved by the mild and largely snowless winter that followed).

Yes i have the right date, it is mostly about energy shotage, and power cuts,
and how ladbrooks have slashed the odds for a record breaking winter.
an article in the daily express.
 
wolram said:

"Last Updated: Wednesday, 13 October, 2004, 16:33 GMT 17:33 UK "

I'll keep a lookout for any recent articles. I looked on metcheck's website, and couldn't see any really long range forcasts, never mind info on how they do them.
 
matthyaouw said:
"Last Updated: Wednesday, 13 October, 2004, 16:33 GMT 17:33 UK "
I'll keep a lookout for any recent articles. I looked on metcheck's website, and couldn't see any really long range forcasts, never mind info on how they do them.

OOps, the news paper article is 2005 though.
 
I just caught the story on the news. It said they use the http://www.oceansatlas.org/servlet/CDSServlet?status=ND0xMjczNSZjdG5faW5mb192aWV3X3NpemU9Y3RuX2luZm9fdmlld19mdWxsJjY9ZW4mMzM9KiYzNz1rb3M~ for their long term forcasting, and with its behaviour this year, we could be in for a cold one.
 
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