1 year: 1.08 F rise in Arctic ocean temp

[Ivan Seeking]

...Temperatures recorded this year in the upper 500 metres (1,625 feet) of sea in the Fram Strait -- the gap between Greenland and the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen -- were up to 0.6 C (1.08 F) higher than in 2003, they said in a press release received here.

The rise was detectable to a water depth of 2,000 metres (6,500 feet), "representing an exceptionally strong signal by ocean standards," it said. [continued]

http://www.spacedaily.com/2004/040827174145.s71k5at1.html

 

[Tide]

Supporters of the global warming theory got a bit of a chill when researchers announced that Antarctica, long considered a dependable predictor of a global warming trend, is actually getting colder.

http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aa011802a.htm?iam=savvy&terms=+doran++antarctica

 

[chroot]

IMO, no studies with baselines of less than a hundred years could even conceivably offer evidence of global warming. Since we haven't been doing studies on the climate for more than a hundred years, I don't believe anyone can provide any evidence of climate trends yet.

- Warren

 

[Marijn]

I agree, i don't think you can classify this event more than an interesting anomaly.
Should the rise persist in the next decade or something then you can write it of to global warming.
For now, i'd say it no more than unusual.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I don't try to argue specifics since I'm not an expert. My position is that in lieu of the majority of climate experts who feel that global warming is now certain, and with more and more evidence that human activities are at least partly responsible - consider the recent admission of such by even the Bush administration - we can't afford the luxury of following the guesses of amateurs.

 

[Tide]

I don't try to argue specifics...

Then consider general arguments. The models are called models for a reason - they're sorely lacking in physics. You won't find Navier-Stokes in the models but you'll find substantial choas on time scales that are meaningful in terms of climate change. You will find a "global temperature" but you won't find a basis for it in reality since the concept of temperature makes little sense for a system that is not in thermodynamic equilibrium. You'll get tons of predictions but the input data is far too sparse to instill more than minimal confidence in the results.

Amateurs aren't particularly reliable but the experts should certainly know better - GIGO!

 

[Andre]

following the guesses of amateurs

You may not realize it but you are insulting the top nodge of the physisists here, who happened to have put a lot of effort in exploration of global warming. And besides it's an http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/ad-hominem.html too. The most used fallacy of the global warmers second to http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-authority.html: "there is consensus among the scientists that global warming is a fact..." Forget it, it's not. Nowhere near it. And it's raising my neck hairs.

For the balance:

http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/feb102004/383.pdf

There are just hot spots and cold spots. So easy to highlight the hot spots and hide the cold ones.

http://ingrid.ldgo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Indices/ensomonitor.html

 

[Ivan Seeking]

An appeal to authority is how science works. We listen to the experts; not amateurs with theories of their own. Also, you consistently post information that has nothing to do with the issue - your el-nino link for example. finally, you refuse to acknowledge the fact that one major scientific organization after another, which are composed of genuine experts, do not agree with your claims.

For starters, you reject a most basic source of information: Ice cores. How many scientists back you on this one? Maybe 0.1% or less?

What raises the hair on my neck is that people are willing to risk their children's futures. There is too much at risk to play politics.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You may not realize it but you are insulting the top nodge of the physisists here, who happened to have put a lot of effort in exploration of global warming.

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-authority.html

 

[Andre]

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-authority.html

How many Copernicusses did it take to break the scientific consensus that the Sun moved around the Earth?

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/red-herring.html

You have no idea what you're talking about. The ice cores refute that CO2 is causing global warming. Not proving it. Moreover we think we understand it all but we have no idea yet what the ice cores are telling us but for sure they are in no way accurate paleo thermometers. How about http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/Laurentian%20ice%20sheet%20on%20greenland.htm for instance.

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-emotion.html

BTW A choice to reduce CO2 emision with the sole purpose of trying to mitigate climate changes is double risky for children futures. It may cripple the economy and can be wrong in two instances instead of one, either when global warming is not causing catastrophic climate changes or when the reducing has too little effect.

The skeptics have only one risk of two factors being true simultaneously: both that global warming is catastrophic and that reduction of emission would have worked together. And in this case there is still an economic motor that could mitigate effects directly.

How "counter intuitive" it may seem but the alarmists are much more dangerous to Earth than the skeptics.

 

[Andre]

Just a little bit more information to show that I did do a little bit of research to back up my ideas.

http://www.ofps.ucar.edu/twiki/pub/JOSS/UnderstandingLongTermClimateVariations/4Polyakov.V.pdf shows the high variability of the Arctic sea ice.

http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/Arctic.jpg computed the real life temperatures of all 14 active high arctic weather stations (over 70 degrees lattitude) from Jan 1900 until Juli 2004. Yes the Arctic is warming just like it did in the nineteen thirties to peak around 1940. Temperatures may have been higher during that spike. Beware for 2030, then the temps will be in the valley again.

Talking about weather stations, http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/econ-persp.pdf discovered the very high inverse correlation between measured temperatures and number of active weather stations.This clearly indicates the highly underestimated effect of the so called "Urban Heat Islands".

 

[Adam]

Does anyone recall the name of the group of researchers who roamed around recording temperatures and such in Europe a couple of centuries ago?

 

[Vance]

Does anyone recall the name of the group of researchers who roamed around recording temperatures and such in Europe a couple of centuries ago?

I also have the same question. Adam, if you know, please let me know 2
Thanks Adam

-Eva666

 

[Andre]

Well Adam and Eva
The records don't go that far back but http://hanserren.cwhoutwijk.nl/co2/ceurvsjghcnupd.gif are some plots of European actual measured temperatures as of 1780.

Note that the long term warming -going through the could ninetheenth century is only 0,02 degrees per decade.

 

[Andre]

Some more http://maconareaonline.com/realtalk/reply.asp?mid=5054&threadid=5043&mPageNo=19 on global warming.

 

[russ_watters]

I realize whenever temperature comes up people instantly jump onto global warming, but this is insanity. Shame on Space Daily for posting such an inflamatory article.

A 1 F temperature rise in 1 year in a tiny section of the ocean is utterly useless for climatology. But the implication of such articles is 'look at how fast its going up!'

By comparison, El Nino and La Nina are surface (down to maybe 150m) phenomena, but they can show year-to-year variations on the order of 10F over large portions of the Pacific Ocean. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html

Few scientists really doubt there is global warming - but articles like this don't help pin it down any.

 

[Andre]

Few scientists really doubt there is global warming

An appeal to authority is how science works. We listen to the experts; not amateurs with theories of their own. ... finally, you refuse to acknowledge the fact that one major scientific organization after another, which are composed of genuine experts, do not agree with your claims.

It's great to have a discussion purely of quotes.

I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.

Let's be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

There is no such thing as consensus science. If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus. Period.

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~scranmer/SPD/crichton.html

 

[Phobos]

The ice cores refute that CO2 is causing global warming. Not proving it.

I'd like to see some more discussion/references on this. Separate topic perhaps?

Moreover we think we understand it all but we have no idea yet what the ice cores are telling us but for sure they are in no way accurate paleo thermometers. How about http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/Laurentian%20ice%20sheet%20on%20greenland.htm for instance.

The link claims to "raise some doubt about the usability of isotope ratio proxies as palaeo-temperature indicators" but does not say ice cores are "in no way accurate paleothermometers". (I realize this is just one example you're providing.)

 

[Phobos]

The models are called models for a reason - they're sorely lacking in physics.

Models do have limitations, but they're not useless. They're based on current knowledge and are calibrated on (checked against) actual climate systems.

You won't find Navier-Stokes in the models

Is this true? I'm not too familiar with the actual models, but having taken a Computational Fluid Mechanics course in college, I would think it's possible to do so (or at least approximate it).

You will find a "global temperature" but you won't find a basis for it in reality since the concept of temperature makes little sense for a system that is not in thermodynamic equilibrium.

Can't the models make regional predictions?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

How many Copernicusses did it take to break the scientific consensus that the Sun moved around the Earth?

Should we bet the future of the planet and generations to come on mainstream science, or should we bet that Andre is the next Copernicus?

Andre, I think it is great that you work so hard and have learned so much. I don't understand why, since you are not an expert or even degreed in a related subject, you feel compelled argue and prove your point, rather than discuss. If this was a physics subforum instead of Earth sciences, I have no doubt that you would be shuttled off to theory development.

 

[Tide]

Models do have limitations, but they're not useless. They're based on current knowledge and are calibrated on (checked against) actual climate systems.

They are useless when the "calibration" is defective and very incomplete and they are senseless when making minuscule changes to any of the myriad "parameters" leads to very different results. And they are a mockery of science when the "correct" values of the parameters are agreed upon in accordance with what people want the results to be.

Is this true? I'm not too familiar with the actual models, but having taken a Computational Fluid Mechanics course in college, I would think it's possible to do so (or at least approximate it).

It is a shocker isn't it! No, Navier-Stokes is NOT used in climate models. And if you have real experience in CFM then you should realize how doing real simulations on a global scale ranging from the turbulence level (boundary layers) to the full planetary scale with everything in between over a time scale of 100's of years is depressingly futile. The simulations contain NO boundary layer physics, NO major meteorological phenomena (hurricanes etc. which have profound effects on energy transfer), NO real cloud physics, shockingly limited and inadequate oceanic and convective effects, NO biotic interaction, VERY LITTLE in the way of real atmospheric phenomena and on and on.

Can't the models make regional predictions?

Ordinary meteorological modelling replete with heuristics cannot make regional predictions beyond a few days and you expect climate models to do any better (with even less physics) on a time scale of hundreds of years? I don't think so!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by about 1.1º F (0.6°Celsius).

Over the last 40 years, which is the period with most reliable data, the temperature increased by about 0.5 º F (0.2-0.3°Celsius).

Warming in the 20th century is greater than at any time during the past 400-600 years.

[offsite Global temperature trend chart]

Seven of the ten warmest years in the 20th century occurred in the 1990s. 1998, with global temperatures spiking due to one of the strongest El Niños on record, was the hottest year since reliable instrumental temperature measurements began.

In addition, changes in the natural environment support the evidence from temperature records:

mountain glaciers the world over are receding;

the Arctic ice pack has lost about 40% of its thickness over the past four decades;

the global sea level is rising about three times faster over the past 100 years compared to the previous 3,000 years; and

there are a growing number of studies that show plants and animals changing their range and behavior in response to shifts in climate.

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_environment/global_warming/index.cfm

 

[Tide]

Should we bet the future of the planet and generations to come on mainstream science, or should we bet that Andre is the next Copernicus?

I think that's a little over the top. Can we make this a little less personal?

With respect to "mainstream science," it's not clear that the mainstream is firmly planted on one side or the other. I believe the "consensus" is that climate is not really all that well understood and that MUCH more research is necessary. The assertion that there is unanimity in the scientific world on climate issues is a political facade.

 

[Tide]

Ivan,

I don't try to argue specifics since I'm not an expert.

What happened since your second post in this thread? :-)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I'm quoting, not arguing.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by about 1.1º F (0.6°Celsius).

Over the last 40 years, which is the period with most reliable data, the temperature increased by about 0.5 º F (0.2-0.3°Celsius).

Warming in the 20th century is greater than at any time during the past 400-600 years.

[offsite Global temperature trend chart]

Seven of the ten warmest years in the 20th century occurred in the 1990s. 1998, with global temperatures spiking due to one of the strongest El Niños on record, was the hottest year since reliable instrumental temperature measurements began.

In addition, changes in the natural environment support the evidence from temperature records:

mountain glaciers the world over are receding;

the Arctic ice pack has lost about 40% of its thickness over the past four decades;

the global sea level is rising about three times faster over the past 100 years compared to the previous 3,000 years; and

there are a growing number of studies that show plants and animals changing their range and behavior in response to shifts in climate.

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_environment/global_warming/index.cfm

there.

 

[Tide]

I'm quoting, not arguing.

Oh! Well, in that case, NEVERMIND!

 

[Andre]

Running around in circles I see.

http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/trend.jpg is how much global temp has increased the last 7 years:

http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/trends2.JPG is a comparison of the temperature of all and of all of the the -still active- rural weather stations versus the active urban weather stations in a radius of 1000 km around Irkutsk in Siberia. Note the differences in trend. So what about:

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by about 1.1º F (0.6°Celsius).

The number of urban weather stations far exceed the rural stations and most rural stations have been closed around 1990. So what does that say about the accuracy of that claim?

Why don't weather balloon and satellite data support that warming trend?

What causes the warming? increase in carbon dioxide? Closing of weather stations, variation in solar energy, variation in albedo? increase in water vapor and relaticve humidity? All of them have been argued with variuos substantiation.

The substantiation for carbon dioxide is far inferior. The greenhouse gas properties are exactly known to be very weak. A doubling of carbon dioxide is good for only one degree centigrade increase. So a positive environmental feedback has been invented to aggravate the warming. However this has also been refuted:

On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series
O. Kärner
Tartu Observatory, Töravere, Estonia

[1] Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show ntipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change.

continuing

 

[Andre]

Ivan Seeking

Should we bet the future of the planet and generations to come on mainstream science, or should we bet that Andre is the next Copernicus?

Take your pick:
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-ridicule.html?
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/false-dilemma.html?
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/straw-man.html

you feel compelled argue and prove your point, rather than discuss.

But you exclude all dicussion immediately after:

If this was a physics subforum instead of Earth sciences, I have no doubt that you would be shuttled off to theory development.

Which theory devellopment? Global warming is unfounded theory devellopment. I urge you to get a little more constructive. This is no discussion.

 

[Andre]

Phobos,

The ice cores refute that CO2 is causing global warming. Not proving it.

I'd like to see some more discussion/references on this. Separate topic perhaps?

Sure, whenever it's possible to get a discussion on the road without a stream of fallacies. The ice age mechanism is the basis of the current global warming idea as Ivan Seeking has underlined:

For starters, you reject a most basic source of information: Ice cores.

However, I studied them for a couple of years and that little essay is only one of the many aspects that can be picked up from the ice cores. But there are also ocean sediment cores (ODP program) and in situ geologic evidence and those three don't add up. Of course most terrestrial and environmental specialists are happy with the correlation between OPD and Ice cores but that's exactly the problem too. It is too perfect when analyzed as a higher order response system. It simply can't be.

Another problem is that greenhouse gasses (CO2-CH4) lag the isotope trends that are considered paleo thermometers suggesting that temperature increase is causing a higher biologic activity, not the other way around. Both conclusions may be wrong though.

Much of the 'in situ' geologic evidence is totally disregarding ice age properties, that's why one of the chapters of my concept book is called: "Ice age, now you see it, now you don't". It's worth a thread but I'm not sure if I want to risk more bullying around.