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Andre
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#21
Jan24-07, 02:47 PM
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Quote Quote by nesp View Post
One further question, how well do these studies and models account for the rate of CO2 increase rather than its absolute level? Are the predictions of x degrees change for y percent change in CO2, with or without feedback, based on steady state end states, or do they account for the shock of rapid CO2 increase we've seen in the last couple of hundred years?
the relationship between reradiation CO2 is modelled with modtran here

http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/c...radiation.html

The idea is to change the Greenhouse gas concentrations note the difference in Iout and then change the ground T offset to match the original Iout. The T-offest it your (blackbody) greenhouse effect. I did that here on a large range to show the saturation effect (mark the logarithmic scale) interest, showing that we are talking about a few tenths of a degree over a very large range.

http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/modtran-rad-bal.GIF

But the question is also how true is the CO2 concentration hockeystick. Accurate and less accurate CO2 measurement has been done since Napeleon. Guy Callendar, who wanted to proof greenhouse effect, cherry picked those close to the desired hockeystick and ignored dozens of others with a completely different story.

This one for instance.

There will be a very interesting publication somewhere in a few months, hopefully if it makes it through peer review. But the author has a very good case.

http://In the language of dynamic no...;/QUOTE]<br />

Not really.
The notion of flikkering climates, tipping points of no return etc originate from the wild isotope roller coaster rides of isotopes of the Greenland ice cores. It took some study but this may now be considered refuted. It's all here in the old threads but I'll elaborate later.

I'm aware of the theoretical scenario in which Greenland melts causing ocean currents to change and throwing the earth into an ice age. I'm not referring to that kind of macro causality.
The story of the ice age is radically different. It's all here too but perhaps try the story of Herrn Wilhem Kreutz (same link) of Giessen first