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Saul
Saul is offline
#46
Oct1-09, 09:00 PM
P: 272
Quote Quote by Skyhunter View Post
No one understands if or how solar changes modulate planetary cloud cover, but it is a moot point since the solar wind is at it's lowest levels in 50 years.


Solar wind inflates the solar magnetic field that shields the Earth from GCR. If the wind were 3 times normal, then GCR flux would be low... not ~20% above normal.

It is fine to have a pet theory, just don't get worked up when others are skeptical of implausible claims.
Skyhunter,

I am sorry there is something incorrect with the AWG hypothesis, as global warming is preferable to abrupt cooling. The solar wind bursts are abating GCR has increased by a 19% and the magnitude of the strongest GCR has increased by a factor of 5.

GCR also removes high altitude clouds which results in record cold temperatures at high latitudes. The record cold is required to thicken the sea ice such that it will not melt in the summer. I see a record low has been set on the Greenland Ice sheet for September., 2009. This would be interesting if I did not live at high latitudes in a Mountainous region.

You are looking at this problem emotionally rather than as a science problem.

Try reading this paper by Nir Shaviv.


http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0409123


On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget by Nir J. Shaviv


We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global climate change. We then proceed to study various periods over which there are estimates for the radiative forcing, temperature change and CRF variations relative to today. These include the Phanerozoic as a whole, the Cretaceous, the Eocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, the 20th century, as well as the 11-yr solar cycle. This enables us to place quantitative limits on climate sensitivity to both changes in the CRF, Phi_CR, and the radiative budget, F, under equilibrium. Under the assumption that the CRF is indeed a climate driver, we find that the sensitivity to CRF variations is consistently fitted with mu := -Phi_0 (dT_global/ d Phi_CR) = 6.5 +/- 2.5 K (where Phi_0 is the CR energy flux today). Additionally, the sensitivity to radiative forcing changes is lambda := dT_global/ dF_0 = 0.35 +/- 0.09 K/(W/m^2), at the current temperature, while its temperature derivative is negligible with d lambda / dT_0 = 0.01 +/- 0.03 1/(W/m^2). If the observed CRF/climate link is ignored, the best sensitivity obtained is lambda = 0.54 +/- 0.12 K/(W/m^2) and d lambda / dT_0 = -0.02 +/- 0.05 1/(W/m^2). The CRF/climate link therefore implies that the increased solar luminosity and reduced CRF over the previous century should have contributed a warming of 0.37+/-0.13 K, while the rest should be mainly attributed to anthropogenic causes. Without any effect of cosmic rays, the increase in solar luminosity would correspond to an increased temperature of 0.16+/-0.04 K.