Universe not accidental: Is this Steinhardt statement rather pathetic ? If so, why?
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Jan26-12, 08:39 PM
But theories are never ruled out on account of their complexity. This is where I disagree with your reasoning. You are essentially performing a Bayesian model selection on your space of competing theories. They all satisfy the data equally well, however, some have additional structure than others that make them either less predictive, more complex, or both. The Bayesian evidence disfavors these models, but it
does not exclude them
! This is an incorrect interpretation of the statistical method.
The point, however, is that despite the fact that a unique universe is
disfavored by the evidence, many people seem to expend all of their vitriol on the most likely models: multiverse models.