Presidential election 2008

Gokul43201

Quote by Ivan Seeking

Increasing the black vote could give a good part of the South to the Dems for the first time since LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

Do you foresee Obama taking any southern state other than MO, VA or NC (not counting FL as "Southern")?

Ivan Seeking

I think the entire SE sector is in play. Look at the map of black demographics posted earlier.

Does anyone know the typical turnout for eligible black voters? I think it is something like 30%.

Ivan Seeking

Also, McCain has limited resources and can only afford to work the swing States. Obama has the money to forge deep into classically Republican territory. There are quite a few red states that are in fact only pink.

And I for one will send Obama lots more money.

Ivan Seeking

I had to laugh at McCains latest blooper: I will veto every beer...

lisab

Quote by Ivan Seeking

I had to laugh at McCains latest blooper: I will veto every beer...

Freudian slip...thinking ahead to the end of the day, probably!

turbo

If he wants to veto every beer, Cindy is going to give him a swift kick in the crotch, cut him off financially and otherwise and banish him to commercial airlines.

Ivan Seeking

It is almost poetic that McCain would be so close to "Busch" beer. It allows for a punch and spin that I expect Move-On will exploit before long. This slip almost begs for it.

Gokul43201

My prediction: This election will not be close (not like the last few we've had). If there's a huge Obama scandal that unfolds in the next 4 months then he'll lose, and lose big. Barring that, I expect him to beat McCain by at least 15 EVs and at least 5% of the popular vote.

vAin21

well probably all of us wants to have a good leader right? but in this generation we cant find our ideal politicians...not just like one i saw in pollcalsh...in USA presidential election is fast approaching as i saw this video Obama v. McCain: Setting the Tone maybe one of them got my ideal politician.. try to check it out, what you think after you heard their speeches

Gokul43201

Quote by Ivan Seeking

Also, McCain has limited resources and can only afford to work the swing States. Obama has the money to forge deep into classically Republican territory. There are quite a few red states that are in fact only pink.

This statement is not accurate, though, in the coming months this may change. For the month of April, McCain + RNC matched Obama + DNC. In May, McCain + RNC did even better and net about $45 mil. We don't have Obama's May numbers, but I don't think he did much better (the DNC managed only about $4mil). The Reps have more cash in the bank than the Dems, right now (probably twice as much).

I just set up a recurring monthly donation. You should too!

Ivan Seeking

It may not be representive of the last month or two, but I think it is accurate if you take into account Obama's 1/2 billion dollars raised so far. He also has the ability to raise much more that McCain simply will not be able to match. But that does assume that supporters keep on giving.

I won't make recurring donations just because I don't like automatic charges, but I plan to send some more money shortly, and then again at critical points in the campaign. Part of me is tempted to max-out if needed.

Gokul43201

An internal poll in Kansas conducted by a Democratic group (Cooper & Secrest) puts Obama only 4 points behind McCain there. It may be a bad poll, or it may be an interesting indicator. We'll have to wait and see.

Timeline of electoral map/projections (Obama/McCain):

Code:

Date        RCP        Elec-Vote       Elec-Proj      
06/06     228/190       287/227         293/245
06/15     238/190       304/221         304/234

Manchot

Quote by Gokul43201

Do you foresee Obama taking any southern state other than MO, VA or NC (not counting FL as "Southern")?

As someone from Missouri, I am offended by the notion that it is a southern state.

Ivan Seeking

Woohoo!!!

... According to the poll, Hispanic voters are backing Obama by a margin of 62 to 28 percent.[continued]

http://www.time.com/time/nation/arti...814676,00.html

...Obama now leads John McCain by six points nationwide, the new poll said, about twice the margin reported in May...

Gokul43201

Quote by Gokul43201

An internal poll in Kansas conducted by a Democratic group (Cooper & Secrest) puts Obama only 4 points behind McCain there. It may be a bad poll, or it may be an interesting indicator. We'll have to wait and see.

A new Rasmussen poll in KS gives McCain +10. So I'm not giving much weight to the previous C&S internal poll numbers.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...n_june_11_2008

Gokul43201

A summary of the political make-up of likely swing states in the following format: State, Party affiliations of Gov., Sen1 and Sen2, Dems/Reps in the House.

Code:

NC  D  R  R  7/6
VA  R  D  R  3/8
IN  R  D  R  5/4    
IA  D  R  D  3/2
MO  R  D  R  4/5
OH  D  D  R  7/11
PA  D  R  D 11/8
NH  D  R  R  2/0
FL  R  D  R  9/16
NV  R  D  R  1/2
NM  D  R  D  2/1
CO  D  R  D  4/3

I think GA, MS, KS and LA will also come into play this year but most pundits disagree.

Gokul43201

Quinnipiac U has just released polling results of a swing state threefer:

FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 43;
OHIO: Obama 48 - McCain 42;
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 40
...

While Democrats support the idea, independent voters in each state say Obama should not choose Sen. Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Results are:

* Florida: Democrats want Clinton on the ticket 57 - 33 percent while Republicans are opposed 59 - 17 percent and independents oppose it 46 - 37 percent;

* Ohio: Democrats want Clinton for Vice President 58 - 31 percent, but Republicans say no 60 - 19 percent and independents turn thumbs down 47 - 31 percent;

* Pennsylvania: Democrats say yes to Clinton 60 - 31 percent, while Republicans say no 63 - 20 percent and independents nix the idea 49 - 36 percent.

https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187

View Poll Results: Who will win the General Election?
Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes	15	51.72%
Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes	6	20.69%
McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes	4	13.79%
McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes	4	13.79%
Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

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Ivan Seeking Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus	I think the entire SE sector is in play. Look at the map of black demographics posted earlier. Does anyone know the typical turnout for eligible black voters? I think it is something like 30%.

turbo Recognitions: Gold Member	If he wants to veto every beer, Cindy is going to give him a swift kick in the crotch, cut him off financially and otherwise and banish him to commercial airlines.

Gokul43201 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus	My prediction: This election will not be close (not like the last few we've had). If there's a huge Obama scandal that unfolds in the next 4 months then he'll lose, and lose big. Barring that, I expect him to beat McCain by at least 15 EVs and at least 5% of the popular vote.

vAin21	well probably all of us wants to have a good leader right? but in this generation we cant find our ideal politicians...not just like one i saw in pollcalsh...in USA presidential election is fast approaching as i saw this video Obama v. McCain: Setting the Tone maybe one of them got my ideal politician.. try to check it out, what you think after you heard their speeches