What Will the Voter Turnout Be in the Upcoming US Presidential Election?

  • News
  • Thread starter check
  • Start date
In summary, the upcoming US presidential election is going to be one of the most bitterly fought-over and polarizing elections in recent US history. This year, there seems to be a lot more young people (as well as more people in general) getting involved, which is screwing up current national and state-by-state polling. However, I believe that there will still be a lot of people who abstain from voting, which would mean that the turnout is probably going to be around 57.5%-60%.

What do you think this year’s voter turnout (of the voting age) will be?

  • Total voters
    19
  • #1
check
145
0
The upcoming US presidential election will probably be one of the most bitterly fought-over and polarizing elections in recent US history. This year, there seems to be a lot more young people (as well as more people in general) getting involved. This young voter irregularity is probably screwing up current national and state-by-state polling, as the good people at www.electoral-vote.com have pointed out. (Because many young people don’t get polled or polled incorrectly in phone polling for reasons like: cell phones are often not called, college students living away etc.)

Anyway, this year’s voter turnout will likely be much higher than in recent previous elections.
Here’s a quick national tally of the last eleven presidential election’s voter turnout of the voting age population (not just registered voters!):

2000 - 51.3%
1996 - 49.08%
1992 - 55.23%
1988 - 50.15%
1984 - 53.11%
1980 - 52.56%
1976 - 53.55%
1972 - 55.21%
1968 - 60.84%
1964 - 61.92%
1960 - 62.77%

( Source: http://www.fec.gov/elections.html )

So what do you think this year’s voter turnout will be? *Public Poll

I’m going to guess a little less than 60%, so between 57.5% and 60%. While I do believe there will be a sharp increase in the voter turnout, there are probably still a lot of people who don’t trust either candidate and will abstain from voting.
 
Last edited:
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #2
Anyone care to explain their votes?
Bystander: Why do you think it will be such a low turnout?
 
  • #3
I just voted for the 47% level. This is because I am getting the sense that a lot of voters are fed up with Bush but don't really want to vote for Kerry either. I figure they'll just stay home.
 
  • #4
45.0% to 47.5%

As much as I'd like to vote, I can't and even if I can vote I don't feel strongly to either candidate like most people.
 
  • #5
Who's to vote for? GWB? Yawn. JK? 'Nother "downeast" slimeball insurance salesman. Dixie might get out the vote against a carpetbagging Yankee, but this is about the dullest match since the Stevenson-Eisenhower bouts, and neither candidate has anything like the popularity Ike had --- people actually felt like taking the time to go out and vote for the man. It' s got a good chance of setting a record low turnout.
 
  • #6
52-55%.

It's got two things going for it that push it up against the overall trend. It's a close election and there's issues people feel strongly about (economy/jobs & terrorism/Iraq).

The overall downward trend is frustrating, though. Does the steadily decreasing quality of candidates causes cynicism and apathy or does increased media scrutiny just make today's candidates look smaller than they used to.
 
  • #7
A bit of an update:
Early voting stations across the country are reporting huge lines with waiting time times to vote in some places as long as 3 hrs. I guess it's much more than people expected.

I still think that the voter turnout on this one is going to be huge.
 
  • #9
A reporter from Philadelphia just said that the turnout in PA is expected to match or beat the 1960 numbers.
 
  • #10
Nationwide turnout is expected to be a little over 120 million !
 
  • #11
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/03/voter.turnout.ap/index.html
Voter turnout was about 114 million, but with absentee and provisional ballots it was about 120 million, which means that a little under 60% of eligable voters voted. Easily highest voter turnout since 1968. Thanks for voting.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

1. How accurate are voter turnout predictions?

The accuracy of voter turnout predictions can vary depending on the methods and data used. However, in general, these predictions tend to be fairly accurate, with an average error rate of around 1-2%. It is important to note that these predictions are based on statistical models and cannot account for unexpected events or changes in voter behavior.

2. What factors are considered when making voter turnout predictions?

There are several factors that are typically considered when making voter turnout predictions, including historical turnout data, demographic information, current political climate, and voter registration numbers. Some models may also take into account external factors such as weather and social media activity.

3. How far in advance can voter turnout be predicted?

Voter turnout can be predicted several months in advance, but the accuracy of these predictions may decrease as the election approaches. Predictions made closer to the election date tend to have a higher accuracy, as they can take into account any last-minute changes in the political landscape or voter behavior.

4. Can voter turnout predictions be manipulated?

Voter turnout predictions are based on statistical models and data, and as such, they cannot be easily manipulated. However, they may be influenced by factors such as inaccurate data or biased modeling techniques. It is important for scientists to use unbiased and reliable data sources when making these predictions.

5. How can voter turnout predictions be useful for elections?

Voter turnout predictions can be useful for elections in several ways. They can help political parties and campaigns target their efforts and resources to areas with higher predicted turnout. They can also inform election officials in their preparations for the election, such as determining the number of polling places and ballots needed. Additionally, these predictions can give insight into the potential outcome of the election and help identify any issues with voter engagement that may need to be addressed.

Similar threads

  • Poll
News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?
    • General Discussion
36
Replies
1K
Views
103K
  • Poll
News Predict the US Presidential Election Winner!
    • General Discussion
2
Replies
51
Views
5K
  • Poll
News Do you trust the US government to run an honest election
    • General Discussion
3
Replies
76
Views
8K
News Bush Honest & Trustworthy Until How Many Lies?
    • General Discussion
2
Replies
65
Views
8K
News Separation of Church and State May God Bless the rest of us?
    • General Discussion
3
Replies
99
Views
11K

Hot Threads

Recent Insights

Back
Top