View Poll Results: Who will win the General Election? Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes 15 51.72% Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes 6 20.69% McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes 4 13.79% McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes 4 13.79% Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

# Presidential election 2008

by Evo
Tags: 2008, election, presidential
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 11,154
There's a new poll out in GA, saying just what I had predicted a couple posts ago. Of course, it is only a single poll, and thus has the potential for a large error bar, but it will definitely make some GOP strategists worry.
 (6/20/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote. The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research.

And in other news:
 MoveOn, the advocacy group supporting Barack Obama, has decided to permanently shutter its 527 operation, partly in response to the Illinois Senator's insistence that such groups should not spend on his behalf during the general election, I've learned from the group's spokesperson. MoveOn's decision, which will dramatically impact the way it raises money on Obama's behalf, is yet another sign of how rapidly Obama is taking control of the apparatus that's gearing up on his behalf. By shuttering its 527, MoveOn is effectively killing its ability to raise money in huge chunks from labor unions, foundations, and big donors who would give over $5,000. The decision doesn't mean MoveOn will stop spending on Obama's behalf. Instead it will raise money exclusively with its political action committee, whose average donation is below$50 and will even be raising money with things like bake sales starting this weekend. To put this in perspective, MoveOn's 527 raised $20 million for the general election in 2004 -- and at least half of that came from donations over$5,000.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...se_its_527.php
 Emeritus Sci Advisor PF Gold P: 11,154 Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):  Aggregates of Current Polls | Projections | Date RCP1 RCP2 CNN Elec-Vote USAtlas-A | Elec-Proj USAtlas-P 06/06 228/190 287/227 | 293/245 06/15 238/190 304/221 | 304/234 06/21 238/163 289/249 211/194 317/194 271/191 | 349/189 298/240 | NOTE: Some pollsters (in the Aggregates column) do not count toss-up states RCP1: does not include toss-up states RCP2: includes toss-ups
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 11,154
 Quote by lisab Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain...
That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to$26 mil, I think).
P: 343
 Quote by lisab Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain: http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465
Yeah, but Dukakis had the same kind of lead in polls (I think I remember hearing that it was actually the same Newsweek poll even) over Bush Sr. in '88.
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 12,493
 Quote by Gokul43201 That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it. Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to$26 mil, I think).
McCain can only spend $85 million. Obama is expected to raise another$200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand. Correction to an earlier statement: It had been reported that Obama had already raised almost 1/2 billion, but now the bean counters put this at about$285 million.
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 11,154
 Quote by Ivan Seeking McCain can only spend $85 million. That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.  Obama is expected to raise another$200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand. Obama has about$45 mil on hand as of the end of May. McCain has a similar amount.
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 12,493
 Quote by Gokul43201 That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.
All right all right, I'm sending more money!
 Emeritus Sci Advisor PF Gold P: 11,154 Tracking Favorability Ratings: Jun 07 Obama=11.8% McCain=6.5% Jun 23 Obama=27.8% McCain=18.0% Source: RCP
 Emeritus Sci Advisor PF Gold P: 11,154 The largest single day change in the RCP(2) electoral map happened today, after a handful of poll numbers came out. The electoral lead for Obama went up from +40 (289/249) to +96 (317/221). I expect the bump came from flipping MI and IN (IN is way closer than MI, but Romney could easily flip MI back if he's on the ticket).
 Emeritus Sci Advisor PF Gold P: 11,154 The political markets can be pretty good indicators near the end of a race, though less useful this early. Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/t...elConID=409933 Obama = $64.1, up by$7 since the primaries ended McCain = $32.4, down by$5 over the same period Iowa Electronic Market - Winner takes all (IEM-WTA): http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html Dem = 0.622 Rep = 0.378 Update: Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):  AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS | PROJECTIONS | Date RCP1 RCP2 CNN Elec-Vote USAtlas-A | Elec-Proj USAtlas-P 06/06 228/190 287/227 | 293/245 06/15 238/190 304/221 | 304/234 06/21 238/163 289/249 211/194 317/194 271/191 | 349/189 298/240 06/26 238/163 317/221 211/194 317/194 288/180 | 338/200 298/240 |
 Emeritus Sci Advisor PF Gold P: 12,493 Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 11,154
 Quote by Ivan Seeking Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.
Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 12,493
 Quote by Gokul43201 Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.
Yes, I knew better. It was an unintentional misstatement on my part.

I am a bit dangerous right now. I went two days without sleep in order to meet a do or die deadline.
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 11,154
To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me:

 On the television in his living room, Peterman has watched enough news and campaign advertisements to hear the truth: Sen. Barack Obama, born in Hawaii, is a Christian family man with a track record of public service. But on the Internet, in his grocery store, at his neighbor's house, at his son's auto shop, Peterman has also absorbed another version of the Democratic candidate's background, one that is entirely false: Barack Obama, born in Africa, is a possibly gay Muslim racist who refuses to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/
P: 1,549
 Quote by Gokul43201 To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/
I had been wondering if something would come out saying that he was not born in america, making him ineligible for the presidential office.
Emeritus
PF Gold
P: 11,154
Not anyone but desperate rumor mongers...and maybe Fox, but I repeat myself.

Anyhow, if you want to get an idea for how people "think" politically, you go to a focus group. And if you want to look at a real, good one, you go to Hart-Annenberg (nothing like the pop-sci focus groups held by the cable news stations, though some exceptions exist).

The latest Hart-Annenberg focus group was telelcast on C-SPAN today and is available on their website. Here's a great write-up on Peter Hart, the vetran pollster that organizes the focus group:
 Emeritus Sci Advisor PF Gold P: 11,154 Favorability Ratings: Jun 07 Obama=11.8% McCain=6.5% Jun 23 Obama=27.8% McCain=18.0% Jul 01 Obama=27.6% McCain=18.2% Numbers above represent the difference: % that rate X favorably - % that rate X unfavorably. Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):  AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS | PROJECTIONS | Date RCP1 RCP2 CNN Elec-Vote USAtlas-A | Elec-Proj USAtlas-P 06/06 228/190 287/227 | 293/245 06/15 238/190 304/221 | 304/234 06/21 238/163 289/249 211/194 317/194 271/191 | 349/189 298/240 06/26 238/163 317/221 211/194 317/194 288/180 | 338/200 298/240 07/01 238/163 304/234 231/194 317/221 268/180 | 338/200 293/245 |