View Poll Results: Who will win the General Election? Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes 15 51.72% Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes 6 20.69% McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes 4 13.79% McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes 4 13.79% Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

Blog Entries: 1
Recognitions:
Gold Member

Presidential election 2008

Barack Obama faced a difficult choice. If he accepted public financing, he would lose the advantage he has in fund raising. On the other hand, if he opted out, he would be branded a liar. Today, Obama opted out. This is probably a wise choice. With enough money he can fool more ignorant people into voting for him than he will lose by disgusting any others. Perhaps it's true after all, that candidates for President can never be better than the people who vote for them. Ever the optimist, I'm holding out for better.
 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus Some folks may not have noticed, but McCain has been running a privately funded general election campaign for the last 4 months, and probably an illegal one at that. And that's just one of many aspects to this story. PS: Does anyone have links to the actual commitments that McCain and Obama signed?

Mentor
Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

 With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.
I've just spent all week in North Carolina, and the people I met with tended to be very conservative - lively and friendly, but definately way-to-the-right politically. It's refreshing to come home to this sort of news!

Recognitions:
Gold Member
Staff Emeritus
There's a new poll out in GA, saying just what I had predicted a couple posts ago. Of course, it is only a single poll, and thus has the potential for a large error bar, but it will definitely make some GOP strategists worry.
 (6/20/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote. The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research.

And in other news:
 MoveOn, the advocacy group supporting Barack Obama, has decided to permanently shutter its 527 operation, partly in response to the Illinois Senator's insistence that such groups should not spend on his behalf during the general election, I've learned from the group's spokesperson. MoveOn's decision, which will dramatically impact the way it raises money on Obama's behalf, is yet another sign of how rapidly Obama is taking control of the apparatus that's gearing up on his behalf. By shuttering its 527, MoveOn is effectively killing its ability to raise money in huge chunks from labor unions, foundations, and big donors who would give over $5,000. The decision doesn't mean MoveOn will stop spending on Obama's behalf. Instead it will raise money exclusively with its political action committee, whose average donation is below$50 and will even be raising money with things like bake sales starting this weekend. To put this in perspective, MoveOn's 527 raised $20 million for the general election in 2004 -- and at least half of that came from donations over$5,000.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...se_its_527.php
 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain): Code:  Aggregates of Current Polls | Projections | Date RCP1 RCP2 CNN Elec-Vote USAtlas-A | Elec-Proj USAtlas-P 06/06 228/190 287/227 | 293/245 06/15 238/190 304/221 | 304/234 06/21 238/163 289/249 211/194 317/194 271/191 | 349/189 298/240 | NOTE: Some pollsters (in the Aggregates column) do not count toss-up states RCP1: does not include toss-up states RCP2: includes toss-ups

Recognitions:
Gold Member
Staff Emeritus
 Quote by lisab Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain...
That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to$26 mil, I think).

 Quote by lisab Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain: http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465
Yeah, but Dukakis had the same kind of lead in polls (I think I remember hearing that it was actually the same Newsweek poll even) over Bush Sr. in '88.

Recognitions:
Gold Member
Staff Emeritus
 Quote by Gokul43201 That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it. Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to$26 mil, I think).
McCain can only spend $85 million. Obama is expected to raise another$200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand. Correction to an earlier statement: It had been reported that Obama had already raised almost 1/2 billion, but now the bean counters put this at about$285 million.

Recognitions:
Gold Member
Staff Emeritus
 Quote by Ivan Seeking McCain can only spend $85 million. That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.  Obama is expected to raise another$200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand. Obama has about$45 mil on hand as of the end of May. McCain has a similar amount.

Recognitions:
Gold Member
Staff Emeritus
 Quote by Gokul43201 That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.
All right all right, I'm sending more money!
 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus Tracking Favorability Ratings: Code: Jun 07 Obama=11.8% McCain=6.5% Jun 23 Obama=27.8% McCain=18.0% Source: RCP
 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus The largest single day change in the RCP(2) electoral map happened today, after a handful of poll numbers came out. The electoral lead for Obama went up from +40 (289/249) to +96 (317/221). I expect the bump came from flipping MI and IN (IN is way closer than MI, but Romney could easily flip MI back if he's on the ticket).
 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus The political markets can be pretty good indicators near the end of a race, though less useful this early. Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/t...elConID=409933 Obama = $64.1, up by$7 since the primaries ended McCain = $32.4, down by$5 over the same period Iowa Electronic Market - Winner takes all (IEM-WTA): http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html Dem = 0.622 Rep = 0.378 Update: Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain): Code:  AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS | PROJECTIONS | Date RCP1 RCP2 CNN Elec-Vote USAtlas-A | Elec-Proj USAtlas-P 06/06 228/190 287/227 | 293/245 06/15 238/190 304/221 | 304/234 06/21 238/163 289/249 211/194 317/194 271/191 | 349/189 298/240 06/26 238/163 317/221 211/194 317/194 288/180 | 338/200 298/240 |
 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.

Recognitions:
Gold Member
Staff Emeritus
 Quote by Ivan Seeking Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.
Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.

Recognitions:
Gold Member
Staff Emeritus
 Quote by Gokul43201 Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.
Yes, I knew better. It was an unintentional misstatement on my part.

I am a bit dangerous right now. I went two days without sleep in order to meet a do or die deadline.

Recognitions:
Gold Member