Presidential election 2008

Jimmy Snyder

Barack Obama faced a difficult choice. If he accepted public financing, he would lose the advantage he has in fund raising. On the other hand, if he opted out, he would be branded a liar. Today, Obama opted out. This is probably a wise choice. With enough money he can fool more ignorant people into voting for him than he will lose by disgusting any others. Perhaps it's true after all, that candidates for President can never be better than the people who vote for them. Ever the optimist, I'm holding out for better.

Gokul43201

Some folks may not have noticed, but McCain has been running a privately funded general election campaign for the last 4 months, and probably an illegal one at that. And that's just one of many aspects to this story.

PS: Does anyone have links to the actual commitments that McCain and Obama signed?

lisab

Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

I've just spent all week in North Carolina, and the people I met with tended to be very conservative - lively and friendly, but definately way-to-the-right politically. It's refreshing to come home to this sort of news!

Gokul43201

There's a new poll out in GA, saying just what I had predicted a couple posts ago. Of course, it is only a single poll, and thus has the potential for a large error bar, but it will definitely make some GOP strategists worry.

(6/20/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research.

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.c...ia62019643.php

And in other news:

MoveOn, the advocacy group supporting Barack Obama, has decided to permanently shutter its 527 operation, partly in response to the Illinois Senator's insistence that such groups should not spend on his behalf during the general election, I've learned from the group's spokesperson.

MoveOn's decision, which will dramatically impact the way it raises money on Obama's behalf, is yet another sign of how rapidly Obama is taking control of the apparatus that's gearing up on his behalf.

By shuttering its 527, MoveOn is effectively killing its ability to raise money in huge chunks from labor unions, foundations, and big donors who would give over $5,000. The decision doesn't mean MoveOn will stop spending on Obama's behalf. Instead it will raise money exclusively with its political action committee, whose average donation is below $50 and will even be raising money with things like bake sales starting this weekend.

To put this in perspective, MoveOn's 527 raised $20 million for the general election in 2004 -- and at least half of that came from donations over $5,000.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...se_its_527.php

Gokul43201

Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

Code:

             Aggregates of Current Polls                |     Projections
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
                                                        |

NOTE: Some pollsters (in the Aggregates column) do not count toss-up states
RCP1: does not include toss-up states
RCP2: includes toss-ups

Gokul43201

Quote by lisab

Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain...

That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to $26 mil, I think).

WarPhalange

Quote by lisab

Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

Yeah, but Dukakis had the same kind of lead in polls (I think I remember hearing that it was actually the same Newsweek poll even) over Bush Sr. in '88.

Ivan Seeking

Quote by Gokul43201

That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to $26 mil, I think).

McCain can only spend $85 million. Obama is expected to raise another $200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand.

Correction to an earlier statement: It had been reported that Obama had already raised almost 1/2 billion, but now the bean counters put this at about $285 million.

Gokul43201

Quote by Ivan Seeking

McCain can only spend $85 million.

That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.

Obama is expected to raise another $200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand.

Obama has about $45 mil on hand as of the end of May. McCain has a similar amount.

Ivan Seeking

Quote by Gokul43201

That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.

All right all right, I'm sending more money!

Gokul43201

Tracking Favorability Ratings:

Code:

Jun 07    Obama=11.8%    McCain=6.5%
Jun 23    Obama=27.8%    McCain=18.0%

Source: RCP

Gokul43201

The largest single day change in the RCP(2) electoral map happened today, after a handful of poll numbers came out. The electoral lead for Obama went up from +40 (289/249) to +96 (317/221).

I expect the bump came from flipping MI and IN (IN is way closer than MI, but Romney could easily flip MI back if he's on the ticket).

Gokul43201

The political markets can be pretty good indicators near the end of a race, though less useful this early.

Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/t...elConID=409933
Obama = $64.1, up by $7 since the primaries ended
McCain = $32.4, down by $5 over the same period

Iowa Electronic Market - Winner takes all (IEM-WTA): http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html
Dem = 0.622
Rep = 0.378

Update: Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

Code:

             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240  
                                                        |

Ivan Seeking

Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.

Gokul43201

Quote by Ivan Seeking

Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.

Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.

Ivan Seeking

Quote by Gokul43201

Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.

Yes, I knew better. It was an unintentional misstatement on my part.

I am a bit dangerous right now. I went two days without sleep in order to meet a do or die deadline.

Gokul43201

To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me:

On the television in his living room, Peterman has watched enough news and campaign advertisements to hear the truth: Sen. Barack Obama, born in Hawaii, is a Christian family man with a track record of public service. But on the Internet, in his grocery store, at his neighbor's house, at his son's auto shop, Peterman has also absorbed another version of the Democratic candidate's background, one that is entirely false: Barack Obama, born in Africa, is a possibly gay Muslim racist who refuses to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/

View Poll Results: Who will win the General Election?
Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes	15	51.72%
Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes	6	20.69%
McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes	4	13.79%
McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes	4	13.79%
Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

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Gokul43201 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus	Some folks may not have noticed, but McCain has been running a privately funded general election campaign for the last 4 months, and probably an illegal one at that. And that's just one of many aspects to this story. PS: Does anyone have links to the actual commitments that McCain and Obama signed?

Gokul43201 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus	Tracking Favorability Ratings: Code: Jun 07 Obama=11.8% McCain=6.5% Jun 23 Obama=27.8% McCain=18.0% Source: RCP

Ivan Seeking Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus	Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.