View Poll Results: Who will win the General Election?
Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes 15 51.72%
Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes 6 20.69%
McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes 4 13.79%
McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes 4 13.79%
Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

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Presidential election 2008

by Evo
Tags: 2008, election, presidential
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Gokul43201
#55
Jun21-08, 04:44 AM
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There's a new poll out in GA, saying just what I had predicted a couple posts ago. Of course, it is only a single poll, and thus has the potential for a large error bar, but it will definitely make some GOP strategists worry.
(6/20/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research.
http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.c...ia62019643.php

And in other news:
MoveOn, the advocacy group supporting Barack Obama, has decided to permanently shutter its 527 operation, partly in response to the Illinois Senator's insistence that such groups should not spend on his behalf during the general election, I've learned from the group's spokesperson.

MoveOn's decision, which will dramatically impact the way it raises money on Obama's behalf, is yet another sign of how rapidly Obama is taking control of the apparatus that's gearing up on his behalf.

By shuttering its 527, MoveOn is effectively killing its ability to raise money in huge chunks from labor unions, foundations, and big donors who would give over $5,000. The decision doesn't mean MoveOn will stop spending on Obama's behalf. Instead it will raise money exclusively with its political action committee, whose average donation is below $50 and will even be raising money with things like bake sales starting this weekend.

To put this in perspective, MoveOn's 527 raised $20 million for the general election in 2004 -- and at least half of that came from donations over $5,000.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...se_its_527.php
Gokul43201
#56
Jun21-08, 11:30 AM
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Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
             Aggregates of Current Polls                |     Projections
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
                                                        |
NOTE: Some pollsters (in the Aggregates column) do not count toss-up states
RCP1: does not include toss-up states
RCP2: includes toss-ups
Gokul43201
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Jun21-08, 03:34 PM
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Quote Quote by lisab View Post
Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain...
That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to $26 mil, I think).
WarPhalange
#58
Jun21-08, 04:02 PM
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Quote Quote by lisab View Post
Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465
Yeah, but Dukakis had the same kind of lead in polls (I think I remember hearing that it was actually the same Newsweek poll even) over Bush Sr. in '88.
Ivan Seeking
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Jun21-08, 05:44 PM
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Quote Quote by Gokul43201 View Post
That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to $26 mil, I think).
McCain can only spend $85 million. Obama is expected to raise another $200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand.

Correction to an earlier statement: It had been reported that Obama had already raised almost 1/2 billion, but now the bean counters put this at about $285 million.
Gokul43201
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Jun21-08, 06:18 PM
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Quote Quote by Ivan Seeking View Post
McCain can only spend $85 million.
That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.
Obama is expected to raise another $200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand.
Obama has about $45 mil on hand as of the end of May. McCain has a similar amount.
Ivan Seeking
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Jun21-08, 06:19 PM
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Quote Quote by Gokul43201 View Post
That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.
All right all right, I'm sending more money!
Gokul43201
#62
Jun23-08, 10:56 AM
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Tracking Favorability Ratings:

Jun 07    Obama=11.8%    McCain=6.5%
Jun 23    Obama=27.8%    McCain=18.0%
Source: RCP
Gokul43201
#63
Jun24-08, 02:22 PM
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The largest single day change in the RCP(2) electoral map happened today, after a handful of poll numbers came out. The electoral lead for Obama went up from +40 (289/249) to +96 (317/221).

I expect the bump came from flipping MI and IN (IN is way closer than MI, but Romney could easily flip MI back if he's on the ticket).
Gokul43201
#64
Jun26-08, 11:45 AM
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The political markets can be pretty good indicators near the end of a race, though less useful this early.

Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/t...elConID=409933
Obama = $64.1, up by $7 since the primaries ended
McCain = $32.4, down by $5 over the same period

Iowa Electronic Market - Winner takes all (IEM-WTA): http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html
Dem = 0.622
Rep = 0.378


Update: Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240  
                                                        |
Ivan Seeking
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Jun27-08, 03:29 PM
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Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.
Gokul43201
#66
Jun27-08, 09:01 PM
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Quote Quote by Ivan Seeking View Post
Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.
Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.
Ivan Seeking
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Jun27-08, 09:05 PM
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Quote Quote by Gokul43201 View Post
Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.
Yes, I knew better. It was an unintentional misstatement on my part.

I am a bit dangerous right now. I went two days without sleep in order to meet a do or die deadline.
Gokul43201
#68
Jun30-08, 03:11 AM
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To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me:

On the television in his living room, Peterman has watched enough news and campaign advertisements to hear the truth: Sen. Barack Obama, born in Hawaii, is a Christian family man with a track record of public service. But on the Internet, in his grocery store, at his neighbor's house, at his son's auto shop, Peterman has also absorbed another version of the Democratic candidate's background, one that is entirely false: Barack Obama, born in Africa, is a possibly gay Muslim racist who refuses to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/
TheStatutoryApe
#69
Jun30-08, 08:31 AM
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Quote Quote by Gokul43201 View Post
To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me:



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/
I had been wondering if something would come out saying that he was not born in america, making him ineligible for the presidential office.
Gokul43201
#70
Jul1-08, 12:50 AM
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Not anyone but desperate rumor mongers...and maybe Fox, but I repeat myself.

Anyhow, if you want to get an idea for how people "think" politically, you go to a focus group. And if you want to look at a real, good one, you go to Hart-Annenberg (nothing like the pop-sci focus groups held by the cable news stations, though some exceptions exist).

The latest Hart-Annenberg focus group was telelcast on C-SPAN today and is available on their website. Here's a great write-up on Peter Hart, the vetran pollster that organizes the focus group:
Peter Hart, a prominent Democratic pollster and focus group leader for three decades, was working for former vice president Walter F. Mondale, running that year for the Democratic presidential nomination against Sen. Gary Hart.
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Hart thumped Mondale in the New Hampshire primary, producing "a tsunami that swept over the Mondale campaign," Peter Hart remembers. "Gary Hart appeared on the cover of all three newsweeklies. Everything was Hart." He was sent to Georgia, site of the next, suddenly crucial, primary to test a commercial attacking Hart before a focus group.

"I tested this negative ad and everybody in the focus group booed. I spent the whole session hearing how Hart was new and young and marvelous and Mondale was everything else. About 80 minutes into the session I realized I had nothing" to help Mondale.

"So I turned to them and said, 'Let me give you a situation. Imagine the country is in a terrible recession, unemployment is rising, it's very bad. Who do you want as president?' All 12 people wanted Hart. 'He's young, vibrant, he'll get the country moving again.' Mondale? 'Old, stale, tired, part of the old way of doing things . . .' Then I said, 'Imagine the country in an international crisis -- not a nuclear war but a serious crisis, when the red phone is being used. Who would you want as president? Twelve hands went up for Mondale. 'He's tested, he's stable, he's mature, he's seasoned, well versed, et cetera.' And Hart? 'Rash, new, untested . . .' "

Hart reported these reactions to the Mondale campaign, which quickly produced a new television commercial featuring a red telephone with a flashing orange light. A narrator intoned:

"The most awesome, powerful responsibility in the world lies in the hand that picks up this phone. The idea of an unsure, unsteady, untested hand is something to really think about. This is the issue of our times. On March 20, vote as if the future of the world is at stake. Mondale. This president will know what he's doing. And that's the difference between Gary Hart and Walter Mondale."

Mondale won in Georgia, and kept this ad on the air in all the states that later held primaries. "The Hart people never had an answer to it," Peter Hart recalls.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...062901875.html

C-SPAN has the video on their front page: http://www.c-span.org/
Gokul43201
#71
Jul1-08, 06:21 PM
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Favorability Ratings:

Jun 07    Obama=11.8%    McCain=6.5%
Jun 23    Obama=27.8%    McCain=18.0% 
Jul 01    Obama=27.6%    McCain=18.2%
Numbers above represent the difference: % that rate X favorably - % that rate X unfavorably.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
                                                        |
Gokul43201
#72
Jul3-08, 10:15 AM
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Rasmussen has a poll out today that should have McCain's new staff rethinking some of the states they've been taking for granted. According to the poll, Obama leads McCain by 5 points in Montana. That's a state that Bush won by 20% and 25%. But it's also a state that Clinton won narrowly in '92 and lost in '96.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...on_july_1_2008


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