Is now a good time to invest in solar?

Naty1

I just posted about a NJ alternative approach here:

http://www.physicsforums.com/showthr...72#post3483872


"I am having my home evaluatehttp by SunRun, Home Depot and bpsolar. There was a booth in a Home Depot store in NJ.

The "deal in brief": I supply the roof area for solar and they get permits, build, install, maintain and pay for the entire solar system. Then they sell me power under a 20 year contract at a discount to PSE&G power. Unless I have to modify my roof or replace shingles, there is no out of pocket expenditure for me."

WhoWee

Are you replacing the roof now/first?

Naty1

I have to be a preliminary site evaluation, be approved to participate, then an engineering evaluation.....I have no data yet so I am open.

I am going to post in the thread I started so as not to disrupt this great discussion....I am posting some interesting information as soon as I sign off here.

"Are you replacing the roof now/first?"

Depends on engineering evaluation and cost.....in theory, I can remove and replace just the upper portion,south facing side, of my four roof surfaces. Roof shingles should be good for another 15 years or so I guess.

Naty1

Can you explain your post....Looks like in September rates dropped to $167!!!!!, although I do not understand such a huge change.....

dlgoff

I'm glad you found this thread. I think you need to be careful with this: You will probably get very little savings. It might be better to rent a room.

Naty1

could be,,,the Home Depot rep mentioned 15% to 20%.....
I'm either "selling" anything here nor recommending anything, just posting whatever I learn.

The discount given to me must depend on the SREC rate the company gets from selling power to PSE&G. If I can save money over an extended time, I'm interested enough to check out the details but not whole heartedly enthusiastic at this point.

What happens for example if the company goes bankrupt or fails to maintain the installation?? I can easily visualize them disappearing as the life expectency of the installation approaches....

"It's all in the fine print."

WhoWee

No doubt. Do they require a minimum average usage or a guarantee of usage?

OmCheeto

I would definitely scan in the contract and post it here. I can understand the tax incentive for businesses to own, and depreciate, their property, while selling you a commodity over a long term period.

Caveat emptor; from Peng's "Is the world messing with me" thread.

ps. I traded a solar panel installation(50 watts) for an air conditioner last week. But the damn kid said it would take him years for the system to pay off when I told him he'd have to invest $60 for a deep cycle battery. I was like; "Dude. I'm trading you a $250 solar panel for a $100 beat up old air conditioner..... The sun shines during the day. You want to power your lights at night. You need a place to store all that energy. When the power goes out, due to a hurricane or something, you'll have the only house in the neighborhood with the lights still on. That's freakin' braggin' rights dude!". I'm still waiting on his response.

pps. don't know if you are a facebook kind of person, but the following made me smile yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/oevadotorg#...type=1&theater

mheslep

Yes that was back in July. The new data does show a huge drop in SREC price as you say. I can't explain the drop, but it highlights a concern with SREC options - no guarantee on the future price at which you can sell your solar electricity. Actually I suppose it was bound to happen. That state could not afford to pay out at 4X the price of regular electricity for too long. This drop is a point in favor of the 20 year contract people. The SREC prices become their problem not yours.

There are a number of companies doing these deals in the US. Until recently, the big ones have been on the West coast.


Edit: Here's a backstory on PPA company SolarCity. There's been a lot of interest from commercial business in PPAs
http://www.technologyreview.com/tr35...5_riverofnames
http://www.solarcity.com/commercial/...manufacturing/

mheslep

Why do you say this? His out of pocket is zero in a PPA, if he wants. Only concern that comes to mind is a turn over in the event of a house sale. But then, resale value needs to be considered for any modification done to the house, solar's no different.

Naty1

Iagree: That's the major thing I could not understand when I considered my own solar installation several years ago....that and well over $5/watt first cost at the time....it makes NO sense for government to subsidize relatively wealthy individual homeowners via tax credits and paying higher rates for electricity for otherwise uneconomical solar energy...somebody has to provide money to do that...those who pay regular electric rates. It's another silly big government waste.

Thanks, just wanted to check as I had not looked at rates in a long time....

If a potential buyer gets an electric discount, it should be attractive; if not, I'm screwed. Another issue I posted in my own thread: any tax assesment on solar?? I don't remember...and that can always change.

Naty1

I just went to the official NJ website on SREC rates and there is no decline in rates reflected there:

http://www.njcleanenergy.com/renewab...g/srec-pricing

??????????


Some interesting SREC background here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_R...y_Certificates

"In addition to providing cash flow security and stability, long-term SREC contracts are often required by banks or other lending institutions unwilling to accept market and legislative risk associated with SREC markets..."

dlgoff

Because of this.

Naty1

I got an initial estimate of 33%. More information in my separate thread.

Artman:
Are you able to utilize solar electricity during a commercial power outage with your system? If so, how is that achieved. Apparently most installations don't provide that and I'm trying to find out why. Thanks.

Artman

No, grid tied system inverters actually mimic the sine wave they get from the grid to convert to alternating current. When the grid is down we have no power.

I was considering looking into an emergency generator and automatic transfer switch to lock out the grid so we don't electrocute a lineman to allow the solar to supplement the generator during the daylight hours. Anyone know if this would work?

SREC prices are way down. I think the reason is the supply of SRECs has increased to a point where the demand has reduced. the last time we checked it was around $276.00 in August, down from $536.00 in July. Drastic change. I don't recommend going solar to anyone at this time. Although, I am actually able to live more comfortably without it costing us more. We kept our AC set on 75 deg F all summer and our meter still went backwards. We are down at about -944 kWh as of this morning.

Due to our conversion to heatpump water heater and improved insulation and high efficiency heat pump HVAC system, we have additional savings in oil costs, but we are also still out more first costs for this new equipment.

The heatpump water heater is a GE Hybrid:

http://www.geappliances.com/heat-pump-hot-water-heater/

Nice unit. No complaints at all about it so far. Noticed a drop in electric usage immediately after putting it into operation.

After the heatpumps and increased insulation, our electric usage is down from about 30 kWh a day to around 20 kWh a day average.

mheslep

??? I see $167 in August. Isn't that below the grid rates in NJ?
http://www.srectrade.com/new_jersey_srec.php

Edit: yes, apparently grid rate is 18c/kwh
http://www.physicsforums.com/showpos...07&postcount=3

Artman

This is why SRECs have plummeted in NJ.

Not at $167 they won't, that's only about $4.5 million.

Too many huge solar farms and communities with solar panels on every lightpost. They're killing the market for the little guy.

My numbers came from last month's email from SRECtrade. So, yeah, they're outdated, darn it.