The House is bringing back the Keystone pipeline

*WhoWee*

Quote by feathermoon

The pipeline will raise the price of fuel in America. Maximum drilling would not do anything to lower the price of fuel for decades, and then only by cents. Perhaps you should be more concerned with higher efficiency standards lowering demand for oil, which actually may put a dent in gasoline prices?

Your basic assumption is the oil will be exported from the US - actually reducing supply in the US Midwest - correct? Wouldn't this create a greater supply on the world market?

CaptFirePanda

Quote by feathermoon

1.) You said the tarsands would benefit the U.S. if the XL was built, I showed how the XL being built would raise gasoline prices in the midwest. I don't know even know what you're talking about with the Gulf Coast refineries for.

The midwest and Gulf Coast refineries have a very significant effect on one another. Are you sure you know what you are talking about? Do you know where the Keystone XL is destined for?

2.) I won't speak much on the issue of Dr. Moore, everyone is entitled to their (bought and sold) opinions. I will say that's evidence of nothing. One guy who recieves paychecks from the papermill industry to be a anthropogenic climate change denier says that nonnative scrub is equal or greater to pristine boreal forest? That's a JOKE.

Read this study if you're interested in the reclamation. In 50+ years of oil sands drilling, 0.2% of all land used is officially considered reclaimed for the public.

Speaking of bought and paid for opinions, The Pembina Institute is very much on that list.

You mention 50+ years of oil sands drilling when, in fact, development has been occurring for 35-40 years, most of the footprint is associated with mining not drilling, and the low number for reclamation is a result of the fact that the mining is still ongoing (so why reclaim it?).

feathermoon

Quote by WhoWee

Your basic assumption is the oil will be exported from the US - actually reducing supply in the US Midwest - correct? Wouldn't this create a greater supply on the world market?

While there is an excess supply in the Midwest, exporting the excess won't make a large impact on global markets. Economies of scale and whatnot (or even being offset by reduced production in other locales).

feathermoon

Quote by CaptFirePanda

The midwest and Gulf Coast refineries have a very significant effect on one another. Are you sure you know what you are talking about? Do you know where the Keystone XL is destined for?

No offense, but how complex is this? There is an oversupply in the Midwest coupled with low demand, buffering it from world oil prices. The XL will alleviate this oversupply, pumping oil south. This will raise prices in the Midwest. In this regard, the Xl will have a direct negative impact on the economy. Does this make sense? Do you know what we're talking about now?

More on this. See DrClapeyron's post as well.

Speaking of bought and paid for opinions, The Pembina Institute is very much on that list.

You mention 50+ years of oil sands drilling when, in fact, development has been occurring for 35-40 years, most of the footprint is associated with mining not drilling, and the low number for reclamation is a result of the fact that the mining is still ongoing (so why reclaim it?).

Indeed. It can be difficult some times to find information sources not tainted by a bad image or money. I commiserate with you (especially if you support the industry! I daresay not many independent researchers would have a confirmation bias towards it). I would personally LOVE to hear some good news research from a Oil & Gas funded source, provided its believable.

In this case, however, the numbers I mentioned would seem safe. In fact, as the area of drilling and mining increases, the area of reclamation will proportionally decrease. Not just because mining is ongoing, but because reclamation takes time. Tailings ponds can take decades to settle alone for beginning reclamation, from what I've read, besides whether they are fully reclaimable anyway!

Mining in the Athabasca region began in 1967. Given that mining seems to be the more extreme of the extraction methods, I feel this was hardly a point worth making.

Yep, still seems like it'd be in the U.S.'s best interest to not move this project forward to me.

feathermoon

Quote by ThomasT

@feathermoon,
Many of your considerations seem to me to be thoughtful and well researched. But I think they generally run contrary to the status quo. So, I predict that this thread will be locked soon. Anyway, it seems that pretty much anything that can be said about it, pro and con, has been said. The bottom line, imho, is that it will go through sometime following the November elections. That is, it's inevitable. So, there's no point in debating the merits, or lack, of it.

While I'm inclined to agree with you considering part will be built anyway already. Even if the project is only delayed, that still benefits us. The longer we get from the recession before gas prices shoot up another 20-30 cents the better.

http://www.startribune.com/opinion/c...l?source=error

U.S. farmers, who spent $12.4 billion on fuel in 2009, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, could see expenses rise to $15 billion or higher in 2012 or 2013 if the pipeline goes through.

Bad news for already rising food prices in the midst of our recovery, no?

*WhoWee*

Quote by feathermoon

While there is an excess supply in the Midwest, exporting the excess won't make a large impact on global markets. Economies of scale and whatnot (or even being offset by reduced production in other locales).

Can you please support (specifically) how pumping oil through the XL pipeline will increase both gasoline prices in the midwest and fuel in America (if you intended those to be separate). Your argument is still not clear - at least not to me.

*WhoWee*

We have an update.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-pipeline.html

"TransCanada Corp. will proceed with building a $2.3 billion segment of its Keystone XL oil pipeline from Oklahoma to the Texas coast so that it isn’t delayed by U.S. approval for the rest of the line.

The company, based in Calgary, expects the segment to begin carrying crude from the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast as soon as mid-year 2013, according to a statement today. TransCanada is separating the Cushing line from its application to President Barack Obama for approval of a Keystone expansion that will bring crude into the U.S. from Canada’s oil sands"

Topher925

Quote by WhoWee

Can you please support (specifically) how pumping oil through the XL pipeline will increase both gasoline prices in the midwest and fuel in America (if you intended those to be separate). Your argument is still not clear - at least not to me.

Its not really the piping of oil through the pipeline that will raise prices, its the displacement of over supplied and therefore discounted Canadian heavy crude oil produced at the refineries on the gulf coast. This issue is stated in the original 2008 application for the pipeline.

Existing markets for Canadian heavy crude, principally PADD II [U.S. Midwest], are currently oversupplied, resulting in price discounting for Canadian heavy crude oil. Access to the USGC [U.S. Gulf Coast] via the Keystone XL Pipeline is expected to strengthen Canadian crude oil pricing in [the Midwest] by removing this oversupply. This is expected to increase the price of heavy crude to the equivalent cost of imported crude. The resultant increase in the price of heavy crude is estimated to provide an increase in annual revenue to the Canadian producing industry in 2013 of US $2 billion to US $3.9 billion.

http://stopbigoilripoffs.com/documen..._download/file

*WhoWee*

Quote by Topher925

Its not really the piping of oil through the pipeline that will raise prices, its the displacement of over supplied and therefore discounted Canadian heavy crude oil produced at the refineries on the gulf coast. This issue is stated in the original 2008 application for the pipeline.

http://stopbigoilripoffs.com/documen..._download/file

A pipeline will clearly increase revenues in Canada - no argument. But this will also increase the supply available for refining. Why will an increased supply increase the refined (gasoline and/or fuel) price?

Topher925

Quote by WhoWee

A pipeline will clearly increase revenues in Canada - no argument. But this will also increase the supply available for refining. Why will an increased supply increase the refined (gasoline and/or fuel) price?

The current Canadian crude oil being refined is over supplied, so in order to move it, its discounted. The fuel from these refineries is also sold domestically here in the US (the midwest). The pipeline would supply tar sands oil to these refineries displacing the discounted Canadian crude oil, thereby eliminating this discounted fuel from the US market. All of the fuel from the Keystone pipeline produced from those refineries, which may be over supplied as well, could be manufactured at a lower or discounted cost as you suggest (I don't know, but I would assume so). However, that fuel will NOT be sold domestically in the US.

In a nutshell, your taking away discounted fuel for the US, and giving it to some other country.

Evo

Quote by DrClapeyron

The Seaway Pipeline is being purged for reverse flow set to begin early this summer. Reversing the pipeline will bring oil from Cushing, OK to the Gulf Coast of America. This is being done because the price of WTI is $20 below Brent and other world spot market prices.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8DL5M520120221

This article explains the impact on pricing in more detail.

Right now, the United States has a big glut of crude oil sitting in the middle of the country, and no easy way to move it. The combination of surging production from Canada's tar sands and North Dakota's Bakken region has overwhelmed the existing pipelines to the Gulf of Mexico, where it would ordinarily be refined and shipped onto the global market. As a result, the price of American and Canadian crude oil is trading at a steep discount to varieties from elsewhere in the world. After all, with fewer potential customers, oil buyers can dictate friendlier prices. West Texas Intermediate, which is traditionally considered a benchmark variety of crude used to price other types, is selling for about $106 a barrel. But according to Oil Price Information Service analyst Tom Kloza, oil from North Dakota has recently been selling for around $83 a barrel. Canadian crude has been trading for even less.

That good fortune might soon be coming to an end, however. Owners of the Seaway pipeline are planning to reverse it's flow in June, which will allow it to begin shipping 150,000 barrels of oil a day from Cushing Oklahoma, where most of that Canadian and North Dakotan crude is currently sitting, to the gulf. Eventually, it will be able to ship 400,000 barrels a day. If the new pipeline capacity can ease all those backed up supplies, it means prices will rise.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dis-un...182602059.html

*WhoWee*

Quote by Topher925

The current Canadian crude oil being refined is over supplied, so in order to move it, its discounted. The fuel from these refineries is also sold domestically here in the US (the midwest). The pipeline would supply tar sands oil to these refineries displacing the discounted Canadian crude oil, thereby eliminating this discounted fuel from the US market. All of the fuel from the Keystone pipeline produced from those refineries, which may be over supplied as well, could be manufactured at a lower or discounted cost as you suggest (I don't know, but I would assume so). However, that fuel will NOT be sold domestically in the US.

In a nutshell, your taking away discounted fuel for the US, and giving it to some other country.

Let's assume everything you've posted is correct. What will happen when the world supply is increased with Canadian oil?

*WhoWee*

Quote by Evo

This article explains the impact on pricing in more detail.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dis-un...182602059.html

This is why I suggested we need new refining capacity around the Great Lakes.

Topher925

Quote by WhoWee

Let's assume everything you've posted is correct. What will happen when the world supply is increased with Canadian oil?

Thats a simple question with a very complicated answer. My speculation is that global fuel prices would remain roughly the same or have a slight decrease on average.

This is why I suggested we need new refining capacity around the Great Lakes.

This is why I suggest we don't add any new refining capacity around the Great Lakes. I've seen enough pollution and mutated fish from growing up on Lake Erie. I don't need to see Lake Michigan and Superior succumb to the same fate.

mheslep

With modern standards, it may be that displacing a lot of farm run off with a refinery or two might be an improvement.

*WhoWee*

Quote by Topher925

Thats a simple question with a very complicated answer. My speculation is that global fuel prices would remain roughly the same or have a slight decrease on average.

At some point, a continuous increase in the world supply with a constant demand (decreasing due to fuel efficiency and alternatives and offset by increased consumption in Asia) - will result in lower prices.

mheslep

A reference to *world* supply then should be compared to world demand. Even if North American demand is constant Chinese and other third world demand for oil is going to increase for some time yet.

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