Solar flares & CMEs: Serious threat?

Jeem

Hi, can anyone confirm or disconfirm that the information below accurate, in particular the text that I bolded? Much appreciated.

The Space Weather Prediction Center, which is an organization tasked with watching the sun and identifying potentially damaging solar events, plans on responding to solar flares headed towards our planet by shutting down key power grid systems. Satellites deployed throughout our solar system are constantly monitoring the sun. When they detect a potentially damaging effect, the Prediction Center’s goal is to immediately activate emergency procedures and contact key personnel through the country who would be responsible for shutting down our grid.

A solar flare will give researchers and analysts about 2 – 3 days to respond – which seems to be plenty of time if a massive solar flare is detected. In recent months we’ve seen several X-class solar flares headed towards Earth. If targeted directly at our planet, a high enough level X-class flare could take down elements of the grid, and in several historical instances flares have done just that. But with solar storms heating up, and the recent massive eruption detected last year, scientists are worried about even stronger “X+” flares, or Y-class events. The Space prediction center should be able to detect all classes of these flares, and if executed properly, can protect the grid if one is determined to be heading towards Earth.

But, as you saw in the video above, solar flares are only one of several dangerous emissions that could effect our power grids.

The real threat is no longer in the solar flare arena, because we can detect these days ahead of time. Our problem comes in the form of threats that give us mere minutes to respond.

CME, or coronal mass ejections, are described as a champagne cork popping off the bottle. If that cork is pointed at Earth, it will be nearly impossible for scientists, government officials and power company leaders to react. When a CME occurs, it creates a shock wave ahead of it. That shockwave is made up of particles moving at almost the speed of light, which means we’ll have anywhere from about 10 minutes to a couple hours before we’re hit. Our satellites may detect the wave, but mounting a response to shut down the power grid would be a nearly impossible task. ...

Author: Mac Slavo
Date: June 14th, 2011
Link: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-new...plans_06142011

Drakkith

Looks to be generally correct to me.

Chronos

This summation appears inaccurate. The effects of solar flares are virtually instantaneous, whereas a CME requires 2-4 days to reach earth. For discussion, see http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/SSTA.pdf

Jeem

Thanks for your responses. I read the article you linked to Chronos as well as a couple of others on the same topic and, from what I understand, it appears that only coronal mass ejections are expected to pose a threat to the power grid, not solar flares, nor solar proton events (Someone please correct me if I am wrong.). But if this is the case, then the utilities will have at worst 17-18 hours to take preventative action, i.e. manually shut down the grid. So, the question is: is 17-18 hours enough time for the utilities to shut off critical electrical infrastructure? If it is, then what is all the panic about?

Dotini

Quote by Jeem

So, the question is: is 17-18 hours enough time for the utilities to shut off critical electrical infrastructure? If it is, then what is all the panic about?

A sufficiently large flare/CME event could induce ground currents which could overload long distance electric transmission lines, even if they are shut down. The Big Fear is burning out the house-sized transformers in the system. These take years to custom design, build and install. So in the worst case, the affected region(s) could be set back to the Steam Age for awhile.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

Chronos

There is a bill in the US Congress that would mitigate effects of a CME on the power grid - HR 5026. Unfortunately, it is expensive and Congress is unlikely to act on it before the fall elections. For discussion, see http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...ity-grid-risk/

Jeem

Quote by Dotini

A sufficiently large flare/CME event could induce ground currents which could overload long distance electric transmission lines, even if they are shut down. The Big Fear is burning out the house-sized transformers in the system. These take years to custom design, build and install. So in the worst case, the affected region(s) could be set back to the Steam Age for awhile.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

Thanks for this important information, Dotini.

Additionally, as I just read in another article:

Unfortunately for grid operators and others who have to deal with the consequences of geomagnetic disturbances, existing tools for assessing severe space weather fall short. The space-based Solar and Heliospheric Observatory now offers gorgeous images of solar flares as they burst forth from the sun's surface, while the Advanced Composition Explorer satellite makes very precise measurements of the solar wind. As a result, computer models of space weather can now accurately predict when the solar wind will reach Earth. But space weather experts still don't know which kinds of solar activity will likely cause real damage. [...] (By John Kappenman/February 2012)

And, according to another article, "there is a one in eight chance the earth will experience a massive solar storm within the next decade."

Jeem

Quote by Chronos

There is a bill in the US Congress that would mitigate effects of a CME on the power grid - HR 5026. Unfortunately, it is expensive and Congress is unlikely to act on it before the fall elections. For discussion, see http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...ity-grid-risk/

Thanks for the link Chronos.

Good news for Finland and Quebec:

Operators of Hydro-Quebec and Finnish grids are confident that mitigation undertaken will prevent catastrophic damage. (p. 65)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/100145114/...ration-11-2011

Jeem

Quote by Dotini

A sufficiently large flare/CME event could induce ground currents which could overload long distance electric transmission lines, even if they are shut down. The Big Fear is burning out the house-sized transformers in the system. These take years to custom design, build and install. So in the worst case, the affected region(s) could be set back to the Steam Age for awhile.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

I just had a thought: in a worst case scenario, grid operators could manually disconnect the transformers from the grid (by cutting the wires and cables, or maybe there's another way) and use a faraday shield to protect them from geomagnetically induced currents. I presume that fixing the exterior wiring afterwards would not be that difficult and neither would covering the transformers with shielding material. Is this something that could be feasibly done in 17-18 hours (the fastest known arrival time for a CME), if grid operators suspected that there might be a dangerous geomagnetic storm?

Of course, since "space weather experts still don't know which kinds of solar activity will likely cause real damage" (source), the operators might not want to preemptively compromise the grid (shutting it down and disconnecting the transformers), since doing so would be very costly (I forget the source, but, if I recall correctly, shutting down the grid would cause billions of dollars in loses).

Any thoughts on this?

Dotini

Quote by Chronos

There is a bill in the US Congress that would mitigate effects of a CME on the power grid - HR 5026. Unfortunately, it is expensive and Congress is unlikely to act on it before the fall elections.

The House has passed this bill, but the Senate has not acted.

Quote by Jeem

I just had a thought: in a worst case scenario, grid operators could manually disconnect the transformers from the grid (by cutting the wires and cables, or maybe there's another way) and use a faraday shield to protect them from geomagnetically induced currents. I presume that fixing the exterior wiring afterwards would not be that difficult and neither would covering the transformers with shielding material. Is this something that could be feasibly done in 17-18 hours (the fastest known arrival time for a CME), if grid operators suspected that there might be a dangerous geomagnetic storm?

Of course, since "space weather experts still don't know which kinds of solar activity will likely cause real damage" (source), the operators might not want to preemptively compromise the grid (shutting it down and disconnecting the transformers), since doing so would be very costly (I forget the source, but, if I recall correctly, shutting down the grid would cause billions of dollars in loses).

Any thoughts on this?

One of the links you posted suggested that power grid managers are very reluctant to preemptively shut down the grid because:
- Atomic power plants rely on the grid, and a hasty national grid shutdown might result in one or two...problems.
- False positives in the detection of X-class flare/CME events have recently occurred in which, if the grid had been shut down, it would have been for nought.

I, personally, would not like to be a worker on a transformer trying to disconnect continental-length powerlines while a CME is incoming!

Respectfully,
Steve

Jeem

Quote by Dotini

The House has passed this bill, but the Senate has not acted.
One of the links you posted suggested that power grid managers are very reluctant to preemptively shut down the grid because:
- Atomic power plants rely on the grid, and a hasty national grid shutdown might result in one or two...problems.
- False positives in the detection of X-class flare/CME events have recently occurred in which, if the grid had been shut down, it would have been for nought.

Exactly right. Also, consider the following:

From a popsci.com article:

Preventing a surge from a CME would be costly. With enough warning (at least a few hours, probably), power companies could shut transformers off entirely, turning them back on after the storm. But shutting down the grid on such a large scale would cost billions. To confidently do so, forecasting must be accurate.

From a globalpost.com article:

NASA has proposed a "Solar Shield" project that would protect the United States power grid, which would include reinforcing power stations and stockpiling replacement parts at a cost of around $1 billion dollars. The US House of Representatives passed the bill necessary to move forward with the proposed project, however Senate has failed to act on Solar Shield Bill H.R.668.

The cost of having to preemptively shut down the power grid would far exceed the cost of implementing the Solar Shield Bill.

I don't even think that the power grid operators would preemptively shut down the grid, for the reasons above (including the ones you mentioned) and because:

in February, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which represents the power industry, issued a stunning report asserting that a worst-case geomagnetic "super storm" like the 1859 Carrington Event likely wouldn't damage most power grid transformers. Instead, it would cause voltage instability and possibly result in blackouts lasting only a few hours or days, but not months and years.
http://articles.businessinsider.com/...ower-grid-nerc

That report is almost certainly bogus, as explained further in the same article.

Oh, yea, and the globalpost article I cited before also states:

Although CMEs can strike anytime, they are closely correlated to highs in the 11-year sunspot cycle. The current cycle will peak in July 2013. The most powerful CME in recorded history occurred during a solar cycle with a peak similar to the one scientists are predicting in 2013.

Note that an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would give power grid operators zero time to take preemptive measures.

Quote by Dotini

Atomic power plants rely on the grid, and a hasty national grid shutdown might result in one or two...problems.

About that, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is considering:

new requirements to enhance the ability to deal with an extended station blackout and to integrate emergency response procedures. The Commission designated the station blackout rulemaking efforts as high priority and established a completion goal of 24 to 30 months, well ahead of typical schedules for complex, technical rulemakings (Federal Register notices 77 FR 16175, NRC-2011-0299, dated March 20, 2012; and 77 FR 23161, NRC–2012–0031, dated April 18, 2012).

In other words, nuclear power plants in the US will remain vulnerable until 2015 (note that the solar cycle peak is in 2013) - and beyond that if the Commission decides not to act (and the power grid is not reinforced).

Dear Chairman Jaczko: I am writing you as the Chairman of the Congressionally mandated Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack as well as the former Science Advisor to the President and Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Executive Office of the President from 1986 to 1989. This letter is to urge you, as you form plans to protect U.S. nuclear reactors from Fukushima-type disasters where electric power to support nuclear plant operations is lost for a protracted period, to take account of the very real threats from a great geomagnetic storm and from a nuclear EMP attack.
http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML1122/ML11229A012.pdf

Quote by Dotini

I, personally, would not like to be a worker on a transformer trying to disconnect continental-length powerlines while a CME is incoming!

I agree!

Dotini

From one of the links just cited above, I gleaned this:

"U.S. transformers on the average are more than 30 years old and are susceptible to internal heating, according to FERC experts. Other federal studies have revealed that the transformers have to be custom-made for local utilities and are constructed only overseas."

Read more: http://articles.businessinsider.com/...#ixzz234XAOLQ3

If this is true about sole overseas manufacture of large transformers, and the warnings of the flare/CME threat to the grid are real...I must hesitate to say what I really am thinking!

Shocked and appalled,
Steve

Quem deus vult perdere, dementat prius

NeuronsAtWork

Transformers are indeed the weak link in our current system. It is correct that they are no longer manufactured in the US. Plus they are extremely expensive, have a lead time of many months, are are very difficult to transport and install. A few power plants have spares, but not many--certainly not enough to mitigate the hazard. One would think that these facts would be enough to prompt some form of action to protect these crucial assets--but apparently one would be wrong.

Eimacman

I have been thinking of this for some time and I have been wondering why all transformers are not protected by surge arresters using MOV technology such are currently being made in the US by Cooper Power Systems for distribution lines. I think that a properly designed over voltage transient protector that could be connected to such transmission transformers to absorb the energy caused by a CME. However I don't know of any company that currently makes such surge transient protectors that are rated for power transmission lines.

It is most likely the earth's magnetic field being distorted by the charged particles that causes the currents in the earth as well as any conductors. Even a metallic watch band might have induced currents in it due to a CME and the resulting distortion of the earth's magnetic field. Those field lines are going to do something when they cut across any conductors, and when, after the CME, they snap back.

However no one really knows for sure what may happen for in the 1850's no one had the instrumentation to make accurate observations. The astronomer that actually observed the CME of 1859, and reported it to his peers, was considered a 'crack-pot' by the scientists of the day.

MichaelMo

Quote by Jeem

Hi, can anyone confirm or disconfirm that the information below accurate, in particular the text that I bolded? Much appreciated.

The real threat is no longer in the solar flare arena, because we can detect these days ahead of time. Our problem comes in the form of threats that give us mere minutes to respond.

CME, or coronal mass ejections, are described as a champagne cork popping off the bottle. If that cork is pointed at Earth, it will be nearly impossible for scientists, government officials and power company leaders to react. When a CME occurs, it creates a shock wave ahead of it. That shockwave is made up of particles moving at almost the speed of light, which means we’ll have anywhere from about 10 minutes to a couple hours before we’re hit. Our satellites may detect the wave, but mounting a response to shut down the power grid would be a nearly impossible task. ...

While the threat of a CME is quite real, I don't believe that the bolded part that you highlighted is necessarily accurate, particularly the reference to 10 minutes. Most CME's produce shock waves, and many such events hit the Earth, even the largest CMEs recorded.

That original shock wave isn't what typically produces the largest EM field hits on the surface of the Earth however. That large EM hit at the surface of the Earth comes from the dense plasma wave that follows the original shock wave. When that dense plasma wave hits the magnetosphere, then we experience the real magnetic field variations at the surface of the Earth. The magnetosphere is dense enough to protect us quite well from the original shock wave IMO (not necessarily the satellites in space however), but the dense wave of plasma that comes from the CME can overwhelm the magnetosphere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

The Carrington Super Flare event was originally seen about 17 hours before the main event hit the Earth. That event was likely a "direct shot", right at the Earth. In all probability we would have about that same period of time (17 hours) to shut down the power grids on Earth. That would be a monumental feat to shut everything down in 17 hours, but it could be done. It wouldn't require everyone react within 10 minutes however. :)

It is true though that the original shock wave can reach the Earth in as quickly as 10-15 minutes. While our atmosphere and magnetosphere offer us protection from such events, that isn't true for an astronaut in space or on the moon. Anyone in space would be in danger from such an event, and they would have to react quickly to take cover from such an event.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news...n_solarflares/

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Drakkith Recognitions: Gold Member	Looks to be generally correct to me.

Chronos Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor	This summation appears inaccurate. The effects of solar flares are virtually instantaneous, whereas a CME requires 2-4 days to reach earth. For discussion, see http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/SSTA.pdf