Is the Chandler Wobble increasing?

shenue

I have read several articles recently saying the earth's Chandler Wobble has been increasing. If this is true, would it have an effect on the earth's crust? I notice there seems to be an increased number, and magnitude of earthquakes in recent years. Could this be, at least in part, due to an increase in the Chandler Wobble?

Studiot

I have not studied this question but a google search reveals many correlation graphs.

Google

"correlation between chandler wobble and seismic activity"

remember the old statististical saw though

Correlation does not imply causation.

Andre

Right, maybe the increased earthquake activity and associated rearrangements of mass caused the change in the Chandler wobble, or maybe something unindentified yet caused both. Or maybe it's just coincidence.

shenue

What you both say is very true. Thank you for responding to my question. I had done some searches and will do more. Again, thank you both.

davenn

Hi shenue,
welcome to PF :)

not sure where you were getting your info from ? but long term records downt show any increase in activity in the last 100 years of good systematic record keeping

on avg there is 1 x M8+ per year, on rare occassions there may be a couple like we did have this year, but that is offset by the years that there are no M8+ events

On avg there are ~ 18 x M7 - M7.9 events per year. This year 2012 has been VERY quiet, we have just finished a 4 month drought of M7+ events when we got the M7.7 a few days ago off the east coast of Sakhalin Is.
The last events over M7 were the 2 x M8+ events on the 24th March off the NW Sumateran coast.

so I would have to say that the wobble if it is increasing doesnt appear to be affecting the seismic activity as of yet

cheers
Dave

billiards

Links to articles and data very much appreciated.

davenn

lol I wonder if he will check this thread again ?
he got some answers, which he was grateful for, but were inaccurate cuz they were based on his poor information

hopefully he does come back with some links to articles.
My seismic info is based on the information readily available on the USGS quakes www site
and is backed up by my own seismic recordings and studies of worldwide quakes from home

Dave

Martinaston

davenn
I realise this thread is a bit old but if your still reading this, would it be possible to answer this ?

If the Earth is basically a lump of rock mainly covered in water. (OK its a bit soft in the middle).and the rock alone, has a natural spread of mass to maintain a (somewhat)balanced rotation, with the water absorbing some of the imbalance.
Now if this mass is mainly spherical then the only part thats unbalanced is the surface.
If the upper mantle and the crust is slowly shifting due to continental drift, would it be possible to calculate how far they have to move before there is a shift in the rotational axis ?